Observations in the eastern Pacific

[Cyclenall]

It appears the eastern Pacific is waking up with the first models showing things last Thursday. I noticed this mostly with the GFS and one other model (GFS was the most aggressive). My preliminary predictions for the 2007 season for the basin is 14/8/3 with at least 1 hurricane striking landmass. I believe this season will be a bit quieter then last season (which was quite active) but a few "blockbusters" should still develop. The water temperatures are more then warm enough to support a tropical cyclone and the wind shear is much lower around south-western Mexico but still high a bit outwards from there.

On Friday, the wind shear maps where the suppose system was to form according to the models had close to no wind shear. The GFS model no longer showed the system.

Today the wind shear is rising a bit more but it's still quite low around south-western Mexico. The models are now not showing anything forming within the next 5 days at least.

Any other thoughts are welcome. The start of the Epac season is not far off now (half a month away). There was another thread I saw from a week ago on the Epac here.

[Chacor]

It's getting close to go-time now.

May, 2006:

NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONES IN MAY ARE SOMEWHAT
INFREQUENT EVENTS...WITH AN AVERAGE OF ONE TROPICAL STORM EVERY TWO
YEARS AND A HURRICANE ONLY ABOUT EVERY THREE YEARS.
INTERESTINGLY...HOWEVER...THIS IS THE SEVENTH CONSECUTIVE YEAR TO
HAVE A NAMED CYCLONE FORM IN MAY...WHEREAS DURING THE PREVIOUS
SEVEN-YEAR PERIOD THERE WAS ONLY ONE.

Will it be eight straight years with a May named storm?

[Scorpion]

Can't wait for the EPAC to heat up... means the Atlantic will be waking up soon. One month

[Cyclenall]

The shear maps show increasing shear around the area that had almost no shear at all 3-4 days ago .

[Cyclenall]

As of right now, the Epac has very low wind shear basically everywhere except some small areas to the south with around 20 knots of shear. Most storms aren't going there right now though. I haven't seen such low wind shear like that all year in the Epac. Now where are all the tropical cyclones?

[cycloneye]

Cyclenall maybe you will see a Tropical Cyclone from this.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Starting to look like one to me...HEHE

[Cyclenall]

*Cut*

Cyclenall maybe you will see a Tropical Cyclone from this.

Nice area of convection. I had not checked the region yet but this should be an Invest by now. If it stays like this, maybe we will see a new Invest by tonight. Nothing the from the TWO from 1 pm EST but in the next few minutes the next one will be out.

Starting to look like one to me...HEHE

Any details on this? I saw it last night and it's quite a bit out there. Doesn't look any better then it did this afternoon. It's also not in the area of greatest favorible conditions.

[Cyclenall]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192250
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT TUE JUN 19 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

Still ignoring the area of convection.

[cycloneye]

Floaters Page



Interesting that the floaters page has Eastern Pacific floater 1 as 93E.Will NRL follow?

[Chacor]

I'm only seeing "test1", and the RGB image you linked above is from June 13th (although VIS shows June 20th).

There is a wave to watch right now though...

[Cyclenall]

cycloneye's floater images are now showing something from June 13 and there is almost no convection with whatever was there .

Chacor's image is older and the tropical wave looks nothing like that sadly :angry: .

[cycloneye]

Oh my,they changed all that as earlier this evening it had the 93E labled and the pics updating every half an hour on that area.Well,then all of us cyclone watchers,let's look for a new area.

[Chacor]

SSD has been acting up lately. It's alternating between current and old archived imagery, and between updated and old archived pages (like their positions page).


20/1200 UTC 8.0N 122.3W TOO WEAK 93E -- East Pacific Ocean

[Cyclenall]

The Epac looks fantastic for favorable conditions in terms of upper level winds today. On Wednesday it didn't look so good but that changed rapidly. We just need something to take advantage of that now...I am seeing something though today in the eastern part.

[Chacor]

Come on!

[Cyclenall]

I'm still wondering why there is nothing going in the the Epac since the shear is still pretty low in a widespread area. The MJO is even in it's wet phase right now there.

[Cyclenall]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242213
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT SUN JUN 24 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Finally, we may have something actually happen! The MJO is there plus the shear is alright. This is from that Carribean system we were watching days ago that didn't form.

[Cyclenall]

The eastern Pacific has been dead quiet for over a month now and it's annoying. The same thing happened last year and then all of a sudden it all just exploded . First it was Bud, then Carlotta, then Daniel...you get the idea. I wonder what type of pattern this Epac season will have?

Even though the MJO has been there plus low wind shear, nothing is happening. It's odd. This morning I see a nice looking feature at 10N, 120W.

[Chacor]

BTW - Alvin's TCR is now out.