Ominous image of what will eventually occur on the TX coast

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Normandy
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Ominous image of what will eventually occur on the TX coast

#1 Postby Normandy » Fri May 18, 2007 2:11 am

Just randomly looking up hurricane radar images and came across Hurricane Claudette...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/projects/cl ... radar2.htm
This website has lots of Claudette radar images


One that stood out to me was this one.

Image

Couple things i noticed:

1) Large eye size
2) VERY symmetrical, IE closed eyewall

Pretty well organized for a Cat 1 80 mph huh? I say ominous image because it has the look and form of a monster, only it came ashore before it could get to that point. Hopefully an image like this wont be on S2K this summer, but that image is a glimpse into the future unfortunately.
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#2 Postby Jam151 » Fri May 18, 2007 3:37 am

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#3 Postby Normandy » Fri May 18, 2007 5:44 am

Quick Diagram I drew up in Photoshop....

http://img514.imageshack.us/my.php?imag ... te1cu6.jpg

This image shows the following:
- Light Gray Cirle: Claudette's Eye
- Opaque Gray Circle: Claudette's Eyewall
- Yellow Circle: Downtown Houston

I made this to illustrate just how vulnerable Houston is to extreme wind damage from a high end category hurricane...despite some claims ive heard that Houston is pretty safe from destruction from a Category 4-5 hurricane. I disagree, and this diagram shows why. Notice that the actual hurricane itself has just made landfall in this diagram, and already the northern eyewall is approaching downtown houston, while the southern eyewall is still battering extreme western galveston. If this hurricane were strengthening like Claudette, and it was a high end 4 or low end 5 (lets say 155-160 mph), Houston would no doubt see either high-end 2 or lower end major hurricane conditions imo (somewhere between 100-120, depending on speed of movement). Anything higher than 155-160 and Houston would be really devastated (Although i dont think a high-end cat 5 could strike Houston due to land interaction/dry air). I know most mets would say (well it will weaken over land and lower 2-3 categories), but I offer this quote as my disagreement:

"As slow as Claudette was to strengthen, it was also slow to dissipate over land. Inland hurricane warnings were issued for several counties away from the coastline and winds gusted to 83 mph at Victoria Regional Airport.[2] It maintained tropical storm intensity for over 24 hours after landfall, a rarity for such a weak storm; most tropical systems weaken rapidly after landfall, as they are separated from the warm waters that power them. The storm finally lost its low-level circulation early on July 17 over Chihuahua, although its rainfall and upper-level circulation continued into the Pacific Ocean."

If Claudette could warrant inland hurricane warnings that far inland, then imagine what a High-end 4 or low-end 5 could do?

More Evidence:
- Victoria, TX recorded sustained winds of 55-60 mph with gusts to 80+. Mind you this is from an intensifying 85-90 mph storm.
- Victoria is located about 36-40 miles from the shore (Port O'Connor, landfall location).
- Houston is also located about 36-40 miles from Galveston (perhaps a shade more, but not much).

Same situation (movement, intesification). Lets double Claudette's windspeed. Instead of 85-90, lets make it 170-180 (very unlikely, but possible)
- Victoria would have recorded 110-120 mph sustained winds, with gusts to 160 mph. Thats major hurricane conditions.

*One more thing to note, Claudette did not strike the Texas coast in perpendicular fashion, so it actually interacted with land more than say a Katrina would have (which hit MS/LA straight on). If you look at the loop, Claudette approached the Texas coast from the west, and continued west towards port O'Connor. In fact, Claudette's northern eyewall struck East Matagorda Bay first, barely missing Freeport....so Claudette's eyewall began interacting with land about 2-3 hours before it made landfall.

If the track of Claudette had been perpendicular to the coast Victoria sits on, Victoria probably would have seen higher winds.



So whats my point? Evacuations for a hurricane of this magnitude is necesarry for everyone south of I-10 imo, because everybody south of I-10 would definitely see major hurricane conditions from a storm like the one im proposing, given it hit the coastline at the perfect angle (much like Katrina). Anyone agree/disagree?

Also, imo this is the best idea of what damage to a high-rise would look like under major hurricane conditions.
Image

I know comparing a tornado and a hurricane isn't the best thing to do, but winds between a major and an f-2 are comparable, especially for high-rises (since the wind is higher the farther up you go). Probably not a totally accurate depiction, or maybe it is, I dunno, but I would say this picture shows what damage could potentially look like in downtown Houston if storm like the one I proposed ever hit.
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#4 Postby Berwick Bay » Fri May 18, 2007 6:09 am

If memory serves me, Houston was hit pretty hard by wind damage in '83. That was Hurricane Alicia which came ashore maybe just south of Galveston?? with winds of about 110-115mph. Downstown Houston received quite a bit of damage with winds running in the 90 mph range. 90 mph winds are no laughing matter. Anyway, I think this was the last significant hit for the upper Texas Coast. That was 24 years ago. Long enough now for many to have forgotten. You are overdue now along the upper Texas Coast. Could possibly take a hit this year, but I'm looing once again toward the Louisiana and Miss-Al coastlines.
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#5 Postby KatDaddy » Fri May 18, 2007 6:12 am

You are absolutely correct. I have warned people of major hurricane conditions for Houston Metro for many years. I hear many people say Houston is safe from hurricane conditions. Its crazy to think Houston Metro will not get hurricane conditions. Its possbile the Houston area could see sustained winds of 140MPH if a strong CAT 4 or 5 comes plowing inland at 20-25MPH. Off course at that intensity and speed the storm surge be extreme as well. If Claudette would have had another 24 hours over water she would have approached CAT 4 levels. It was rapidly intensifying.
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#6 Postby Jagno » Fri May 18, 2007 6:54 am

If you want to see what a CAT 3 can do to TX simply visit your neighbors and citizens right there in Port Arthur, Orange, Vidor and even as far as Beaumont. There is still visible damage that far away from Rita's landfall near the TX/LA border. Houston's flood potential alone posses a significant risk to all of it's residents.
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#7 Postby southerngale » Fri May 18, 2007 10:38 am

Berwick Bay wrote:You are overdue now along the upper Texas Coast. Could possibly take a hit this year, but I'm looing once again toward the Louisiana and Miss-Al coastlines.

Overdue? Good gosh, we're still recovering from Rita in 2005! Many houses and businesses were destroyed or damaged. While a lot of places have already been rebuilt or repaired, there are still many with blue roofs and/or living in FEMA trailers, waiting. Let's pray this part of the Upper Texas Coast doesn't take another hit this year.


(see Jagno's post above)

and Jagno... I hope things are going well for you. Let's cross our fingers and toes this year. ;)
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#8 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri May 18, 2007 11:01 am

I have heard that Claudette might of been actually a Category 2 hurricane. If Claudette had not make landfall, it would of been a major hurricane, possibly a Category 4 hurricane. It looks quite impressive on radar. Many Category 1 hurricanes do not look all that impressive. Claudette maintained hurricane force winds far inland. If Claudette made landfall with 175 mph winds and had the size of Katrina or Gilbert, it would really devastate the state of Texas. I have a bad feeling that Texas is in for some nasty hurricanes.
:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#9 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri May 18, 2007 11:31 am

I believe winds were below hurricane force in most of Houston from Alicia. Not a good example of what a major hurricane will do
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#10 Postby Berwick Bay » Fri May 18, 2007 12:12 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I believe winds were below hurricane force in most of Houston from Alicia. Not a good example of what a major hurricane will do


Perhaps winds were below hurricane force for "most of Houston". I'm going strictly from memory. I remember quite a bit of damage in downtown Houston among the high rise buildings. Maybe this was from the added elevation and perhaps a "wind tunnel" type of effect among these tall buildings. But as I remember it, winds were considerable in downtown Houston. I think Alicia was classified as a major hurricane upon striking the Texas Coast. But here we go again with this bickering(as scientists like to do) over Cat 3, 4, or 5. Alicia was a Cat 3. For me the classification of major is good enough. Too many differences between individual storms. Don't think the quibbling over classification really adds a lot of light on the situation.
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#11 Postby Berwick Bay » Fri May 18, 2007 12:16 pm

southerngale wrote:
Berwick Bay wrote:You are overdue now along the upper Texas Coast. Could possibly take a hit this year, but I'm looing once again toward the Louisiana and Miss-Al coastlines.

Overdue? Good gosh, we're still recovering from Rita in 2005! Many houses and businesses were destroyed or damaged. While a lot of places have already been rebuilt or repaired, there are still many with blue roofs and/or living in FEMA trailers, waiting. Let's pray this part of the Upper Texas Coast doesn't take another hit this year.


(see Jagno's post above)

and Jagno... I hope things are going well for you. Let's cross our fingers and toes this year. ;)


I want to apologize to you Jagno about my statement about being overdue. I plead guilty to thinking of Rita as a Louisiana storm. I know that landfall was technically in Louisiana and Louisiana caught the right side of the storm and much of the horrific surge. But I want to apologize because I know that the people of Texas also suffered greatly from this storm. There seems to have been almost tornadic effect just to the left of the eye at landfall which ran up the west side of the Sabine River (East Texas). Again, I apologize to our Texas posters.
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#12 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri May 18, 2007 1:38 pm

Berwick Bay wrote:
I want to apologize to you Jagno about my statement about being overdue. I plead guilty to thinking of Rita as a Louisiana storm. I know that landfall was technically in Louisiana and Louisiana caught the right side of the storm and much of the horrific surge. But I want to apologize because I know that the people of Texas also suffered greatly from this storm. There seems to have been almost tornadic effect just to the left of the eye at landfall which ran up the west side of the Sabine River (East Texas). Again, I apologize to our Texas posters.


I always saw Rita as a Texas hurricane as well. It made landfall on the Texas/Louisiana border.
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#13 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri May 18, 2007 1:40 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I believe winds were below hurricane force in most of Houston from Alicia. Not a good example of what a major hurricane will do


Even though the winds were not hurricane force in Houston during Alicia, it was prolonged, which is just as bad. Winds in Houston were 40 to 70 mph. Katrina produced 70 to 90 mph winds in New Orleans, yet Lake Ponchartrain rose by 8 feet and flooded New Orleans. Katrina was much larger than Alicia. Alicia was small to average size.
Last edited by Ptarmigan on Fri May 18, 2007 2:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#14 Postby southerngale » Fri May 18, 2007 1:51 pm

Apology accepted, Berwick Bay, but I wasn't really jumping on you. Just kinda shocked to see that we were "overdue" when the worst hurricane to ever hit here for as long as anyone who is alive would remember just hit 20 months ago. I wish I only thought of it as a Louisiana storm, but I see reminders of it every single day. I was displaced for a while and it was a long time before things resembled anything even close to normal. Many things still don't. Some things never will. I don't think there was an almost tornadic effect just to the left of the eye at landfall which ran up the west side of the Sabine River though. The eye went right over Southeast and East Texas, with devastating effects and storm surge in both Louisiana and Texas.

Image



Anyway, here's some pics from the many towns and cities in Texas affected by Rita, if you're interested.
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#15 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri May 18, 2007 2:02 pm

Claudette had hurricane force winds extending up to 30 to 40 miles from the eye. Tropical storm force extends extended 150 to 180 miles. Houston had tropical storm force winds and heavy rain when Claudette came crashing in.
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#16 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri May 18, 2007 2:48 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I believe winds were below hurricane force in most of Houston from Alicia. Not a good example of what a major hurricane will do
I believe you are correct..however, sustained winds of 55mph with gusts to 100mph will do very similar damage to sustained winds of 80mph with gusts to 100mph. During Alicia, I believe that the top gust along the coast was 126mph, in Houston it was 99mph and at IAH it was 77mph. Isn't it true that most wind damage is actually done by the gusts and not the sustained speeds (especially inland)?
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#17 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri May 18, 2007 2:53 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:I have heard that Claudette might of been actually a Category 2 hurricane. If Claudette had not make landfall, it would of been a major hurricane, possibly a Category 4 hurricane. It looks quite impressive on radar. Many Category 1 hurricanes do not look all that impressive. Claudette maintained hurricane force winds far inland. If Claudette made landfall with 175 mph winds and had the size of Katrina or Gilbert, it would really devastate the state of Texas. I have a bad feeling that Texas is in for some nasty hurricanes.
:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
very well could have been. This building from Goliad county following the storm surge looks like it recieved quite a bit of wind damage...

Image

..especially considering the county is INLAND!

Image
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#18 Postby Normandy » Fri May 18, 2007 5:08 pm

Berwick Bay wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I believe winds were below hurricane force in most of Houston from Alicia. Not a good example of what a major hurricane will do


Perhaps winds were below hurricane force for "most of Houston". I'm going strictly from memory. I remember quite a bit of damage in downtown Houston among the high rise buildings. Maybe this was from the added elevation and perhaps a "wind tunnel" type of effect among these tall buildings. But as I remember it, winds were considerable in downtown Houston. I think Alicia was classified as a major hurricane upon striking the Texas Coast. But here we go again with this bickering(as scientists like to do) over Cat 3, 4, or 5. Alicia was a Cat 3. For me the classification of major is good enough. Too many differences between individual storms. Don't think the quibbling over classification really adds a lot of light on the situation.


Alicia is a very bad example of what a major hurricane could do to Houston! Derek is absolutely correct.
The fact that Alicia made landfall ith 115 mph winds and only brought 50 mph sustained winds to Houston makes sence due to Alicia's size. Remember, the ONLY way Houston recieves major hurricane conditions is from a large hurricane, something like Claudette or Katrina. A smaller hurricane like Charley or Alicia would not do the job, as it would fall apart before getting into downtown. In fact, the only small hurricane capable of bringing winds that strong into downtown would be Andrew, but only because of its extreme intensity and its deepening upon landfall. Its quite crazy that a cat2 hurricane brought nearly identical winds into downtown houston (a tad bit weaker winds) as a cat3 that struck Galveston. Goes to show you that the really dangerous hurricanes (save a few exceptions) are all large in size.

List of Big Hurricanes that have caused major damage:
- Ivan
- Katrina
- Rita
- Claudette (For a Cat1 damage was very significant)
- Hugo
- Camille
- Georges
- Opal

List of smaller hurricanes that have caused damage
- Frederic
- Andrew
- Charley

And mind you, the most damaging hurricane in US history was a large one. And it was ONLY a 3. Place Cat5 Isabel into the GUlf and send it into Galveston at the right angle, and everything from Freeport to High Island would suffer catastrophic damage. Here are some more diagrams of different Eye sizes.

Image
Eye is 10 miles wide. Hurricanes like this probably wont do much serious damage to metro houston, because the storm would have weakened drastically due to the amount of time the eye would need to be overland. Hurricanes with eye sizes like this would be Opal, Glibert, Andrew, Charley, and Wilma (2 miles though). A upper end hurricane with a structure like this would likely only produce 70-80 mph sustained winds in downtown. Damage would be comparable to Alicia, maybe a bit worse.

Image
Eye is 20 miles wide. THis hurricane would do some serious damage to downtown due to its large windfield. Huricanes with eyes like this include Hugo, Rita, and Ivan. A hurricane like this (155-160 mph) would only likely spend about 2-3 hours over land before the eyewall impacts downtown, and thus would likely produce 80-95 mph winds in Houston. Enough to do some serious damage. All windows in the highrises would likely be lost.

Image
Eye is 40 miles wide. A bit bigger than Claudette's eye, and this hurricane would nearly level most of metro houston. Coming in at 155-160 mph, winds in the downtown area would easily approach 120 mph sustained imo, because the eye would be BARELY totally overland to have downtown in its eyewall. Notice how wide the eyewall is, it affects Galveston, Pasadena, Angleton, Galveston, Sugarland, and Metro Houston all at the same time. A very, very devastating strike. Hurricanes with eye sizes like this include Claudette (a bit smaller), Katrina (smaller, 30 miles), Isabel (a bit larger), and Wilma (a bit larger). Metro Houston would experience damage very similar to what Punta Gorda and Cameron experienced during their respective majors. Structural integrity of highrises in downtown would be challenged. My house (in Galena Park) would likely be destroyed or heavily damaged.

Image
Eye is 50 miles wide. Probably the worst possible scenario for metro Houston. Anything south of I-10 would be destroyed by winds, anything near Galveston Bay or the Gulf would be destroyed by surge. Winds in downtown would top 120 mph imo. Truly catastrophic. The eye is so large, the eyewall effects: Downtown Houston, All of Galveston (west and east ends), Sugarland, Baytown, Galena Park, Lake Jackson, and Bellaire all at the same time. Major hurricane conditions would be widespread, and damage would be catastrophic in all areas affected by the eyewall south of I-10. Even IAH would see 100+ mph winds. My house in Galena Park would surely be leveled. Hurricane winds from a storm like this would probably push as far inland as Spring and Tomball. Absolute worst case scenario.

Looking at these images, the differences between how a certain hurricane effects Houston is evident. All of these potential hurricanes would be Cat4-5 hurricanes, but only two of them pose grave danger (as in, most of Houston would need to be rebuilt) to metro Houston. Mind you, all 4 scenarios would destroy Galveston as is, so any 4 of them would already be VERY devastating.
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#19 Postby Jagno » Fri May 18, 2007 5:23 pm

Berwick Bay; I lost my home in SW Louisiana during Rita, not Texas. However, not realizing how severe our neighbors had gotten it I drove there to try and find items like a real bed and matress, sheets, linens and such only to realize that they had it pretty bad as well. I was shocked. I thought the west side of a hurricane was the "mild" side but these folks really took a severe beating. Needless to say, my shopping trip took me all the way to Houston just to have a real bed with soft sheets and blankets that first night back. :oops: We are still rebuilding...................and fighting with insurance companies. Prayers still going out to my Texas neighbors.
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#20 Postby perk » Fri May 18, 2007 7:07 pm

I also agree with Derek that Alicia is a bad example of what a major hurricane hitting the Houston/Galveston can do.
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