Tampico Cyclogenesis?

[Sanibel]

Mods: Feel free to delete this if you think it is wrong, but my eye is saying tropical formation is happening under that blob off Tampico. I think the board could be late on this.

(If I'm wrong zap this and save me the embarrassment.)

[HouTXmetro]

I was thinking the same thing...

[TexWx]

While I think I see it....
It shouldn't last too long moving NNW, correct?

[JonathanBelles]

This from the EPAC GTWO:
1. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM
ZIHUATANEJO TO MAZATLAN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A
NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO LAND. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.


It looks like the same system or may have originated at one point from the same system. I do believe this has a chance; however, slight because of the proximity to land.

[vbhoutex]

No need to delete. I have been looking at it and I see no signs of anything at this time. No turning, etc. except around the ULL to the West in Northern Mexico. I won't say nothing will happen in the next 48 hours, but even with the incoming waves from the SE I don't expect it. I haven't looked at a shear chart, but the clouds tell me there is still too much for anything to pop, at least in the short term.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Staring long and hard, I don't see any element of a west wind near the blob by Tampico. CIMSS wind shear is somewhere between 10 and 20 knots, marginally favorable, but if it did develop a circulation there, it would start ingesting dry air off the Sierra Madre.


"I am not a professional meteorologist, nor do I play one on TV".

[Sanibel]

I think something was organizing there from the look of the swirl over northern Mexico well east of the dry ULL over central Mexico - but it makes no difference since it pushed over land. The shape and quality of the convection bursts are sometimes the best indicator. I'd bet if this happened more east it would have developed.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think something was organizing there from the look of the swirl over northern Mexico well east of the dry ULL over central Mexico - but it makes no difference since it pushed over land. The shape and quality of the convection bursts are sometimes the best indicator. I'd bet if this happened more east it would have developed.

Dr. Neil Frank on the late local news said if the center had been over water for a day, he thinks it would have become a TC.

[Steve]

I agree with Dr. Frank. We just had an "arm" come through the area and you can easily see it on the New Orleans radar. It looks similar to a seabreeze front, but it is none such beast.

Here you go:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[srainhoutx]

I agree with Dr. Frank. We just had an "arm" come through the area and you can easily see it on the New Orleans radar. It looks similar to a seabreeze front, but it is none such beast.

Here you go:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

and yet another one approaching Upper and Middle TX Coast...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[Sanibel]

Those round, deep bursts rarely lie. Moved inland - otherwise this energy is telling you what it would have done over water.

[Steve]

Not sure how to link images since they aren't hosted, but here's a shot of a waterspout that was just over Lake Pontchartrain about :30 ago with the passage of that band:

[Steve]

And here's the link to the NOLA (Times Picayune) blog which has another shot of that spout:

http://blog.nola.com/times-picayune/200 ... chart.html

[Berwick Bay]

Thats a beautiful shot, Steve! And thats no wimpy looking waterspout either, that "sucker's" got some beef on him!

[WindRunner]

This had a good mid-level spin to it, very similar to 98L at the end of July last year. And yes, if it had stayed over water, this could have very easily spun down to the surface. The clouds mentioned in the EPAC TWO are more like a moisture inflow band than a potential tropical system. I guess they mentioned it for the rainfall, but, in general, this should have gotten a mention in the ATL TWO at some point, even though it had little chance of staying over water.