Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa

#1 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:29 pm

Here is the next thing that we may need to watch:

Meso · #2 Postby **Meso** » Tue Aug 21, 2007 4:59 am

HURRICANELONNY · #3 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Tue Aug 21, 2007 6:39 am

Thats huge. Looks like the GFS has latched on to it. Should be an invest within 24 hrs. :eek:

#4 Postby **Canelaw99** » Tue Aug 21, 2007 10:17 am

These long trackers are fun on the one hand, but boy! I don't get enough work done when they're out there! LOL

#5 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Tue Aug 21, 2007 10:42 am

HURRICANELONNY wrote:Thats huge. Looks like the GFS has latched on to it. Should be an invest within 24 hrs.

Salad days for the GFS after its handling of Dean...from Good For S*** to God-like Forecasting Skills. :lol:

We shall see. Who knows...in a month or so, its tropical performance may be Garbage For September. :wink:

jhamps10 · #6 Postby **jhamps10** » Tue Aug 21, 2007 11:03 am

HURRICANELONNY wrote:Thats huge. Looks like the GFS has latched on to it. Should be an invest within 24 hrs.

don't think it will be an invest till Thursday, allow it more time to get off shore. Yeah GFS latches on on 6z. but it appears that the 12z doesn't latch on out to 72 hours.

EDIT: It is there, just a wee bit low of latitude though for my liking.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

canegrl04 · #7 Postby **canegrl04** » Tue Aug 21, 2007 12:00 pm

BayouVenteux wrote:
HURRICANELONNY wrote:Thats huge. Looks like the GFS has latched on to it. Should be an invest within 24 hrs.

Salad days for the GFS after its handling of Dean...from Good For S*** to God-like Forecasting Skills.

We shall see. Who knows...in a month or so, its tropical performance may be Garbage For September.

After the way they so skillfully handled Dean,I have to admit the GFS has proven good at forecast tracks.Whatever they forecast for the next storm,I will be inclined to believe it 8-)

#8 Postby **windstorm99** » Tue Aug 21, 2007 12:51 pm

This wave look like it means business in the coming days...

#9 Postby **Wthrman13** » Tue Aug 21, 2007 1:01 pm

The GFS has been a good model for TC track forecasting for years. As with any model, it has its ups and downs, and handles some situations and storms better than others. In this case, it performed very well with Dean, and the GFDL (up to about 3-4 days before Yucatan landfall), was too far north. This doesn't mean that suddenly the GFDL is crap and the GFS is God, because the situation could be reversed on the next storm, or next year. Both are reliable track models and should be weighted accordingly in any forecasting process.

#10 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Tue Aug 21, 2007 1:10 pm

Tropical Wave "Tip". That thing is gargantuan.

#11 Postby **seaswing** » Tue Aug 21, 2007 1:59 pm

Maybe our first 'Cat. 6"? :double:

curtinnc · #12 Postby **curtinnc** » Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:31 pm

seaswing wrote:Maybe our first 'Cat. 6"?

Lord let's hope not....... Just throw some rain my way, that's all we want... :froze:

Cyclone1 · #13 Postby **Cyclone1** » Tue Aug 21, 2007 3:35 pm

It is a nice little blobicane, we'll see if it goes poof or not.

#14 Postby **Buck** » Tue Aug 21, 2007 4:03 pm

This one should be watched just like all the others that roll of Africa like that... but maybe a little more so. This thing is gargantuan!! (Not that size as a wave really affects anything, but still! Might be one for the record books!)

JessRomero · #15 Postby **JessRomero** » Tue Aug 21, 2007 4:22 pm

This thing is a monster I wonder what is goin to do and if it does anything how big it will get! Dean was big and by the looks of this thing if it turns into anything it is goin to be a monster! Does anyone know when they might start callin it a invest??

Sjones · #16 Postby **Sjones** » Tue Aug 21, 2007 4:24 pm

JessRomero wrote:This thing is a monster I wonder what is goin to do and if it does anything how big it will get! Dean was big and by the looks of this thing if it turns into anything it is goin to be a monster! Does anyone know when they might start callin it a invest??

I would think anytime just by the looks of it, it seems to be in a very favorable environment :wink:

jhamps10 · #17 Postby **jhamps10** » Tue Aug 21, 2007 4:40 pm

by the looks of it, it already has good outflow feeder bands on the portions off shore.

I'd go ahead and call this one an invest. But the question is, will it stay this large or cut out some of the fat?

Cape Verde · #18 Postby **Cape Verde** » Tue Aug 21, 2007 5:10 pm

What's the Saharan dust situation this year? Last year it killed even the impressive blobs coming off Africa.

Cryomaniac · #19 Postby **Cryomaniac** » Tue Aug 21, 2007 5:21 pm

seaswing wrote:Maybe our first 'Cat. 6"?

OMG Global Warming! [/sarcasm]

DanKellFla · #20 Postby **DanKellFla** » Tue Aug 21, 2007 5:49 pm

BayouVenteux wrote:
HURRICANELONNY wrote:Thats huge. Looks like the GFS has latched on to it. Should be an invest within 24 hrs.

Salad days for the GFS after its handling of Dean...from Good For S*** to God-like Forecasting Skills.

We shall see. Who knows...in a month or so, its tropical performance may be Garbage For September.

Good stuff.

Now if we could figure out why the models are good for one storm and not so good for another..

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