Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa
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- Canelaw99
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Re: Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa
These long trackers are fun on the one hand, but boy! I don't get enough work done when they're out there! LOL
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- BayouVenteux
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Re:
HURRICANELONNY wrote:Thats huge. Looks like the GFS has latched on to it. Should be an invest within 24 hrs.
Salad days for the GFS after its handling of Dean...from Good For S*** to God-like Forecasting Skills.

We shall see. Who knows...in a month or so, its tropical performance may be Garbage For September.

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Re:
HURRICANELONNY wrote:Thats huge. Looks like the GFS has latched on to it. Should be an invest within 24 hrs.
don't think it will be an invest till Thursday, allow it more time to get off shore. Yeah GFS latches on on 6z. but it appears that the 12z doesn't latch on out to 72 hours.
EDIT: It is there, just a wee bit low of latitude though for my liking.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif
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Re: Re:
BayouVenteux wrote:HURRICANELONNY wrote:Thats huge. Looks like the GFS has latched on to it. Should be an invest within 24 hrs.
Salad days for the GFS after its handling of Dean...from Good For S*** to God-like Forecasting Skills.![]()
We shall see. Who knows...in a month or so, its tropical performance may be Garbage For September.
After the way they so skillfully handled Dean,I have to admit the GFS has proven good at forecast tracks.Whatever they forecast for the next storm,I will be inclined to believe it

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- windstorm99
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Re: Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa
This wave look like it means business in the coming days...


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- Wthrman13
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Re: Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa
The GFS has been a good model for TC track forecasting for years. As with any model, it has its ups and downs, and handles some situations and storms better than others. In this case, it performed very well with Dean, and the GFDL (up to about 3-4 days before Yucatan landfall), was too far north. This doesn't mean that suddenly the GFDL is crap and the GFS is God, because the situation could be reversed on the next storm, or next year. Both are reliable track models and should be weighted accordingly in any forecasting process.
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Re: Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa
seaswing wrote:Maybe our first 'Cat. 6"?
Lord let's hope not....... Just throw some rain my way, that's all we want...

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- JessRomero
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Re: Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa
This thing is a monster I wonder what is goin to do and if it does anything how big it will get! Dean was big and by the looks of this thing if it turns into anything it is goin to be a monster! Does anyone know when they might start callin it a invest??
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Re: Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa
JessRomero wrote:This thing is a monster I wonder what is goin to do and if it does anything how big it will get! Dean was big and by the looks of this thing if it turns into anything it is goin to be a monster! Does anyone know when they might start callin it a invest??
I would think anytime just by the looks of it, it seems to be in a very favorable environment

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- Cape Verde
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Re: Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa
What's the Saharan dust situation this year? Last year it killed even the impressive blobs coming off Africa.
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Re: Large Tropical Wave Rolling off Africa
seaswing wrote:Maybe our first 'Cat. 6"?
OMG Global Warming! [/sarcasm]
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- DanKellFla
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Re: Re:
BayouVenteux wrote:HURRICANELONNY wrote:Thats huge. Looks like the GFS has latched on to it. Should be an invest within 24 hrs.
Salad days for the GFS after its handling of Dean...from Good For S*** to God-like Forecasting Skills.![]()
We shall see. Who knows...in a month or so, its tropical performance may be Garbage For September.


Good stuff.
Now if we could figure out why the models are good for one storm and not so good for another..
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