Pattern Shift?

[Sanibel]

2007 has above average temperatures in south Florida. We've had a steady low 80's through December. It never chilled down this December like it usually does. This could possibly be a sign of a pattern shift for 2008. Especially with the polar opposite snow and cold in the Northeast from last year. Maybe the Atlantic negativity will change this season.

[Cyclone1]

It's La Nina, I'm sure.

[jinftl]

Strong cold front (at least by south florida terms) will push through the area on the 1st...of January. In general though it has been a consistently warm month down here...actually haven't the last few Decembers? When I first moved to South Florida in the mid-90's, I remember some downright chilly Decembers and Christmases....not the last few years though.

[MGC]

Yea, its called winter. Time to look somewhere else till May.....MGC

[Sanibel]

Of course, most patterns shift from year to year anyway, but the warm December and night and day opposite New England December from last year are probably telling you something about next year's hurricane pattern. Maybe the weird upper pattern that is stripping storms in the Atlantic will change and we'll see a return to the Atlantic boomers.

[Sanibel]

Our SST was 71* a few days ago. That's above normal where winter often sees 58* SST.

We've had temperatures in the low eighties inland.

[Blown Away]

This is one of the warmest winters I can remember in SFL, and I'm going back 30+ years.

[Aquawind]

Yeah I have been surprised the SSTs haven't gotten below 70F around here..even with a couple good cold fronts. Not that the SSTs now have anything to do with hurricane season. It is rather odd with it being such a cold and wet winter in the Northland and SW. I don't think the SW would agree to a Nina type winter.

[Coredesat]

La Nina usually causes warm weather in the SE US. It's not a pattern shift, it's a La Nina winter. Despite La Nina, it's highly unlikely there will be a pattern shift conducive to the development of anything in the Atlantic in the next few months (until when it normally happens).

[tolakram]

I'm not trying to pick on anyone here but keep in mind historical data is available on weather underground to fact check anything that might seem unusual. It seems many have global warming fever and if something seems odd then it turns into much more than it really is. I think it has to do with people not really paying attention to the weather as much before all the global warming hype began.


Take the historic records for Stewart Florida, for example. January 1990 was much warmer than January 2008:

1990:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/histo ... atename=NA

2008:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/histo ... atename=NA

[Aquawind]

Good Job tolakram!

The GW hype continues. I was reffering to the SSTs in particular and they have been warm. Living here only 9 years doesn't give me much time for comparison though. Here is the Naples information and there was clearly warmer air temperature in 1990 as well.

January 2008


http://www.weatherunderground.com/history/airport/KAPF/2008/1/1/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

January 1990

http://www.weatherunderground.com/history/airport/KAPF/1990/1/1/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

January 1990 was very warm for the Florida Peninsula.

[Sanibel]

SST's here 76* That's way above normal where the coldest SST's can be 58* in winter.

The GW hype continues.

Yeah, those people watching the ice cap melt away, glaciers evaporate, and tornadoes in Wisconsin in january are all hysterical! It was summery at 83* in Ft Myers today. Cooler out here by the Gulf. Warm sun.

[hial2]

Good Job tolakram!

The GW hype continues. I was reffering to the SSTs in particular and they have been warm. Living here only 9 years doesn't give me much time for comparison though. Here is the Naples information and there was clearly warmer air temperature in 1990 as well.

January 2008


http://www.weatherunderground.com/history/airport/KAPF/2008/1/1/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

January 1990

http://www.weatherunderground.com/history/airport/KAPF/1990/1/1/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

I lived in Miami Fl from 1965 through June 2007..I can tell you for a fact that the 60s-70-s were REALLY cold..I can also positively assert that the last really long cold snap there was in the winter of 1989-90..I know because it cost me $100.00 to replace my door lock when it froze during the cold snap..nothing near that since.

[jinftl]

Seeing the 80 degree water poking its head in the Gulf Stream tells me it won't be long until we are looking to the tropics...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/analysis/?type=SST

[Sanibel]

Interesting. That south Florida SST chart shows a shallow water warm pocket around Sanibel. It actually gets cooler as you head west towards the Loop Current, but then warms up after entering it.

Maybe a warmer than normal SST condition will possibly make a June storm stronger?

[dixiebreeze]

I'm wondering if the pattern to watch this spring and summer is the more northerly jet stream. It's been that way most of the winter seems to continue.

If it does, then there won't be much push toward the GOM come summer.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Interesting. That south Florida SST chart shows a shallow water warm pocket around Sanibel. It actually gets cooler as you head west towards the Loop Current, but then warms up after entering it.

Maybe a warmer than normal SST condition will possibly make a June storm stronger?

Especially if that june storm takes a path like barry 2007 or alberto 2006 or goes somewhere
along florida's west coast.

[MiamiensisWx]

I'm wondering if the pattern to watch this spring and summer is the more northerly jet stream. It's been that way most of the winter seems to continue.

If it does, then there won't be much push toward the GOM come summer.

Your sentence appears to contradict this post's lede. A displaced northern jet stream would teleconnect with a SE ridge, possibly leading to landfalls in FL and the Gulf coast. The upper-level flow plays a role in that scenario, and there would be easterly flow and westward tracks. "There won't be much push toward the GOM" makes no sense, unless you are referring to suppressed tracks south of the CONUS (i.e. Allen, Gilbert, Dean, and Felix). Regardless, both scenarios are associated with an UL RIDGE, so "there won't be much push" is incorrect.

[jinftl]

Water temp up to 85 degrees late Thursday afternoon at Sombrero Key!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=smkf1&meas=wtmp&uom=E