Pattern Shift?
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Pattern Shift?
2007 has above average temperatures in south Florida. We've had a steady low 80's through December. It never chilled down this December like it usually does. This could possibly be a sign of a pattern shift for 2008. Especially with the polar opposite snow and cold in the Northeast from last year. Maybe the Atlantic negativity will change this season.
0 likes
Re: Pattern Shift?
Strong cold front (at least by south florida terms) will push through the area on the 1st...of January. In general though it has been a consistently warm month down here...actually haven't the last few Decembers? When I first moved to South Florida in the mid-90's, I remember some downright chilly Decembers and Christmases....not the last few years though.
0 likes
Re: Pattern Shift?
Of course, most patterns shift from year to year anyway, but the warm December and night and day opposite New England December from last year are probably telling you something about next year's hurricane pattern. Maybe the weird upper pattern that is stripping storms in the Atlantic will change and we'll see a return to the Atlantic boomers.
0 likes
Re: Pattern Shift?
Our SST was 71* a few days ago. That's above normal where winter often sees 58* SST.
We've had temperatures in the low eighties inland.
We've had temperatures in the low eighties inland.
0 likes
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10159
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: Pattern Shift?
This is one of the warmest winters I can remember in SFL, and I'm going back 30+ years.
0 likes
- Aquawind
- Category 5
- Posts: 6714
- Age: 62
- Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
- Location: Salisbury, NC
- Contact:
Yeah I have been surprised the SSTs haven't gotten below 70F around here..even with a couple good cold fronts. Not that the SSTs now have anything to do with hurricane season. It is rather odd with it being such a cold and wet winter in the Northland and SW. I don't think the SW would agree to a Nina type winter.
0 likes
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20017
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: Pattern Shift?
I'm not trying to pick on anyone here but keep in mind historical data is available on weather underground to fact check anything that might seem unusual. It seems many have global warming fever and if something seems odd then it turns into much more than it really is. I think it has to do with people not really paying attention to the weather as much before all the global warming hype began.
Take the historic records for Stewart Florida, for example. January 1990 was much warmer than January 2008:
1990:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/histo ... atename=NA
2008:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/histo ... atename=NA

Take the historic records for Stewart Florida, for example. January 1990 was much warmer than January 2008:
1990:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/histo ... atename=NA
2008:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/histo ... atename=NA

0 likes
- Aquawind
- Category 5
- Posts: 6714
- Age: 62
- Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
- Location: Salisbury, NC
- Contact:
Re: Pattern Shift?
Good Job tolakram!
The GW hype continues.
I was reffering to the SSTs in particular and they have been warm. Living here only 9 years doesn't give me much time for comparison though. Here is the Naples information and there was clearly warmer air temperature in 1990 as well.
January 2008
http://www.weatherunderground.com/history/airport/KAPF/2008/1/1/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
January 1990
http://www.weatherunderground.com/history/airport/KAPF/1990/1/1/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

The GW hype continues.

January 2008
http://www.weatherunderground.com/history/airport/KAPF/2008/1/1/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
January 1990
http://www.weatherunderground.com/history/airport/KAPF/1990/1/1/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

0 likes
- Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5597
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
Re: Pattern Shift?
SST's here 76* That's way above normal where the coldest SST's can be 58* in winter.
Yeah, those people watching the ice cap melt away, glaciers evaporate, and tornadoes in Wisconsin in january are all hysterical! It was summery at 83* in Ft Myers today. Cooler out here by the Gulf. Warm sun.
The GW hype continues.
Yeah, those people watching the ice cap melt away, glaciers evaporate, and tornadoes in Wisconsin in january are all hysterical! It was summery at 83* in Ft Myers today. Cooler out here by the Gulf. Warm sun.
Last edited by Sanibel on Tue Feb 05, 2008 12:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Re: Pattern Shift?
Aquawind wrote:Good Job tolakram!
The GW hype continues.I was reffering to the SSTs in particular and they have been warm. Living here only 9 years doesn't give me much time for comparison though. Here is the Naples information and there was clearly warmer air temperature in 1990 as well.
January 2008
http://www.weatherunderground.com/history/airport/KAPF/2008/1/1/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
January 1990
http://www.weatherunderground.com/history/airport/KAPF/1990/1/1/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
I lived in Miami Fl from 1965 through June 2007..I can tell you for a fact that the 60s-70-s were REALLY cold..I can also positively assert that the last really long cold snap there was in the winter of 1989-90..I know because it cost me $100.00 to replace my door lock when it froze during the cold snap..nothing near that since.
0 likes
Re: Pattern Shift?
Seeing the 80 degree water poking its head in the Gulf Stream tells me it won't be long until we are looking to the tropics...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/analysis/?type=SST
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/analysis/?type=SST
0 likes
Re: Pattern Shift?
Interesting. That south Florida SST chart shows a shallow water warm pocket around Sanibel. It actually gets cooler as you head west towards the Loop Current, but then warms up after entering it.
Maybe a warmer than normal SST condition will possibly make a June storm stronger?
Maybe a warmer than normal SST condition will possibly make a June storm stronger?
0 likes
- dixiebreeze
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5140
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
- Location: crystal river, fla.
Re: Pattern Shift?
I'm wondering if the pattern to watch this spring and summer is the more northerly jet stream. It's been that way most of the winter seems to continue.
If it does, then there won't be much push toward the GOM come summer.
If it does, then there won't be much push toward the GOM come summer.
0 likes
- Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5597
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
Re: Pattern Shift?
Sanibel wrote:Interesting. That south Florida SST chart shows a shallow water warm pocket around Sanibel. It actually gets cooler as you head west towards the Loop Current, but then warms up after entering it.
Maybe a warmer than normal SST condition will possibly make a June storm stronger?
Especially if that june storm takes a path like barry 2007 or alberto 2006 or goes somewhere
along florida's west coast.
0 likes
Re: Pattern Shift?
dixiebreeze wrote:I'm wondering if the pattern to watch this spring and summer is the more northerly jet stream. It's been that way most of the winter seems to continue.
If it does, then there won't be much push toward the GOM come summer.
Your sentence appears to contradict this post's lede. A displaced northern jet stream would teleconnect with a SE ridge, possibly leading to landfalls in FL and the Gulf coast. The upper-level flow plays a role in that scenario, and there would be easterly flow and westward tracks. "There won't be much push toward the GOM" makes no sense, unless you are referring to suppressed tracks south of the CONUS (i.e. Allen, Gilbert, Dean, and Felix). Regardless, both scenarios are associated with an UL RIDGE, so "there won't be much push" is incorrect.
0 likes
Re: Pattern Shift?
Water temp up to 85 degrees late Thursday afternoon at Sombrero Key!
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=smkf1&meas=wtmp&uom=E
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=smkf1&meas=wtmp&uom=E
Last edited by jinftl on Thu Feb 07, 2008 7:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane and 16 guests