Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[Bgator]

Yes and there isn't even a hint of a drastic change....nothing at all...with storms such as Andrew, didn't they know pretty much all along that the high would stay put forcing him on a due west track?

I think andrew was first forecasted to curve out to sea...

[wxman57]

This front is very weak...giving us nothing...mets here arent to thrilled about it...

That's not the front/trof we're talking about turning Helene northward. A stronger front will move off the east coast on the evening of the 19th - next Tuesday night. Then a third front will blast offshore on Thursday as the upper trof swings off the east U.S. Coast. That's the trof that'll move out into the Atlantic and steer Helene out to sea around 55W.

[wzrgirl1]

Yes and there isn't even a hint of a drastic change....nothing at all...with storms such as Andrew, didn't they know pretty much all along that the high would stay put forcing him on a due west track?

I think andrew was first forecasted to curve out to sea...

yes, at first possibly, but eventually within 5 days I think they knew that it would go due west.....if I remember correctly

[sma10]

Perhaps I've missed something important this evening.

I keep reading posts regarding Helene about "No one knows where she's going" "everything is still up in the air"

What have I missed?? The computer guidance all have their typical spread here, but they agree in general terms. It isn't like the GFS turns Helene due North and the UK send her screaming into the Caribbean!

If you read the NHC discussions they do mention the relative uncertainties in the models, but nowhere do I read anything that should make any landmass concerned by Helene's future path.

[brunota2003]

This front is very weak...giving us nothing...mets here arent to thrilled about it...

That's not the front/trof we're talking about turning Helene northward. It's the BIG front that'll move off the east coast on the evening of the 19th - next Tuesday night. That's the trof that'll move out into the Atlantic and steer Helene out to sea.

This front?:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY. THE FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN BETWEEN THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH AND THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY INDICES LOOK WEAK SO DID NOT
INCLUDE THUNDER. GFS HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
WHICH KEEPS THE RAIN IN OUR AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THE HPC
EXTENDED GRAPHICS DO NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE AT ALL SO WENT WITH A DRY
DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT OFF THE COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
RETURNING.

[CronkPSU]

Yes and there isn't even a hint of a drastic change....nothing at all...with storms such as Andrew, didn't they know pretty much all along that the high would stay put forcing him on a due west track?

I think andrew was first forecasted to curve out to sea...

yes, at first possibly, but eventually within 5 days I think they knew that it would go due west.....if I remember correctly

not according to the movie that portrayed norcross in it...no one was worried about it because it was too small and going to hit somewhere north of miami

[Windtalker1]

This front is very weak...giving us nothing...mets here arent to thrilled about it...

That's not the front/trof we're talking about turning Helene northward. It's the BIG front that'll move off the east coast on the evening of the 19th - next Tuesday night. That's the trof that'll move out into the Atlantic and steer Helene out to sea.

Maybe our Mets are missing something...they are not forecasting that front to be off the coast till at least next Thursday....more than enough time to get Helene 1) closer if not into the NE part of the Caribbean and 2) maybe into the Bahamas....just a thought.

[wxman57]

This front is very weak...giving us nothing...mets here arent to thrilled about it...

That's not the front/trof we're talking about turning Helene northward. It's the BIG front that'll move off the east coast on the evening of the 19th - next Tuesday night. That's the trof that'll move out into the Atlantic and steer Helene out to sea.

This front?:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY. THE FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN BETWEEN THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH AND THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY INDICES LOOK WEAK SO DID NOT
INCLUDE THUNDER. GFS HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
WHICH KEEPS THE RAIN IN OUR AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THE HPC
EXTENDED GRAPHICS DO NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE AT ALL SO WENT WITH A DRY
DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT OFF THE COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
RETURNING.

That's correct, the Tuesday night front that should clear even south Florida and then lay down in the western Caribbean by the 24th-25th. Now what could happen with a stalled front in the western Caribbean in late September?.....

[sma10]

I think andrew was first forecasted to curve out to sea...

Never.

There isn't a single discussion that forecast a recurve. They didn't pinpoint South Dade county until about 36hrs prior to landfall, but they pretty much knew that Andrew was not going to be "a fish". Of course, they couldn't know that Andrew would landfall as a category 5.

Keep in mind though that when Andrew made his initial turn towards the NW he was already west of 60W. When the strong high then captured Andrew and sent him west, he was already fairly close to the US.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This storm is not very big....The cdo part=the storm. The rest is outflow and trashy convection.

[wzrgirl1]

how can I get archives from Andrew forecasts 5-7 days out just to see what models showed back then?

[wxman57]

This front is very weak...giving us nothing...mets here arent to thrilled about it...

That's not the front/trof we're talking about turning Helene northward. It's the BIG front that'll move off the east coast on the evening of the 19th - next Tuesday night. That's the trof that'll move out into the Atlantic and steer Helene out to sea.

Maybe our Mets are missing something...they are not forecasting that front to be off the coast till at least next Thursday....more than enough time to get Helene 1) closer if not into the NE part of the Caribbean and 2) maybe into the Bahamas....just a thought.

No, they're not missing anything. The cofusion lies in the fact that there are 3 fronts moving into the east coast over the next week. One fairly weak one will stall out this weekend. A stronger front moves just off most of the east coast Tuesday night, and the third front arrives next Thursday and clears everything out, bringing some pretty cool air to the east coast, even mild tems into Florida.

[HeatherAKC]

I know for 100% fact that Andrew was "supposed" to curve out to sea when it was first declared a depression. Then the Bermuda High built in. I have Norcross saying so on VHS. PBS used to air a documentary on the history of Miami and besides other hurricanes of our past, Andrew was part of the documentary. The Andrew segment begins with Norcross saying that it is expected to curve out to sea. Things changed along the way, and the rest is history.

=)

[wxman57]

how can I get archives from Andrew forecasts 5-7 days out just to see what models showed back then?

There wasn't a lot of model data back then. JB always mentions the Plymouth college site for archived weather charts/ models, but I've never figured out how to navigate it to produce the charts. Someone have a link here?

[sma10]

how can I get archives from Andrew forecasts 5-7 days out just to see what models showed back then?

For years, they were archived on an ftp server at NHC, but it's not there anymore.

I've read them dozens of times

[Windtalker1]

Wxman I don't doubt you but they are forcasting temps of 85-90 all week into next weekend.

[cycloneye]

how can I get archives from Andrew forecasts 5-7 days out just to see what models showed back then?

There wasn't a lot of model data back then. JB always mentions the Plymouth college site for archived weather charts/ models, but I've never figured out how to navigate it to produce the charts. Someone have a link here?

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/

Chris,is this what you are looking for?

[jabber]

Yuck... I hate mid temps... Anything under 80 is cold for me.

This front is very weak...giving us nothing...mets here arent to thrilled about it...

That's not the front/trof we're talking about turning Helene northward. It's the BIG front that'll move off the east coast on the evening of the 19th - next Tuesday night. That's the trof that'll move out into the Atlantic and steer Helene out to sea.

Maybe our Mets are missing something...they are not forecasting that front to be off the coast till at least next Thursday....more than enough time to get Helene 1) closer if not into the NE part of the Caribbean and 2) maybe into the Bahamas....just a thought.

No, they're not missing anything. The cofusion lies in the fact that there are 3 fronts moving into the east coast over the next week. One fairly weak one will stall out this weekend. A stronger front moves just off most of the east coast Tuesday night, and the third front arrives next Thursday and clears everything out, bringing some pretty cool air to the east coast, even mild tems into Florida.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I say about 45-50 knots now. Also the storm its self is about 180-220 miles across. 300 nmi across is the avg hurricane in size.

[sma10]

I know for 100% fact that Andrew was "supposed" to curve out to sea when it was first declared a depression. Then the Bermuda High built in. I have Norcross saying so on VHS. PBS used to air a documentary on the history of Miami and besides other hurricanes of our past, Andrew was part of the documentary. The Andrew segment begins with Norcross saying that it is expected to curve out to sea. Things changed along the way, and the rest is history.

=)

Your source is Bryan Norcross (a pretty good source), my source is the archived discussions from the NHC. It was never actually forecast to recurve by the NHC. But don't worry. I remember watching Don Noe at the same time and he also thought it would go out to sea. Why not? Andrew was so far to the North and East who would've thought he'd come all the way back west?