Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

[Brent]

With all the models pointing to the gulf after intializing
with the recon, this is a gulf storm.Mainland Florida sees nada.(Thats a good thing)

Then why did the NHC issue a TS watch for Broward and Miami-Dade??

[wxman57]

*Bops w57 over the head with above mentioned umbrella. Better not break it!*

Seriously though, what was the reasoning here? Anyone?

As you can see by the models I posted, the NHC's track is still the northernmost track. Keep in mind that the models were initialized with the position that the recon found at 18Z - down near 21.9N. But it's clear that Rita has a mid-level circulation up around 22.5-22.9N. It looks like the LLC is inching northward to vertically align with the mid-level center. But the NHC wanted to hedge and stay closer to the northern edge of guidance just in case. If the LLC center relocates beneath the mid-level center, then all those model tracks will shift a little northward. But the NHC track won't have to be adjusted northward as much.

[Rainband]

Makes sense.

[Ivanhater]

then why shift south if the models most likely will be to far south anyway...still makes no sense

[Brent]

then why shift south if the models most likely will be to far south anyway...still makes no sense

LOL

[jkt21787]

then why shift south if the models most likely will be to far south anyway...still makes no sense

If you look at the models compared to NHC, it doesn't make NHC look that bad at all.

They could have gone with the model consensus and showed a northern Cuba hit then not far from the Yucatan and then turning north, but they didn't.

It could have been a MUCH worse forecast/track.

[Ivanhater]

then why shift south if the models most likely will be to far south anyway...still makes no sense

If you look at the models compared to NHC, it doesn't make NHC look that bad at all.

They could have gone with the model consensus and showed a northern Cuba hit then not far from the Yucatan and then turning north, but they didn't.

It could have been a MUCH worse forecast/track.

ya it could of, but why make it just a little bad, if there is a good possibility the center will reform north, leave the track the same, dont move it south to be in better agreement with models that will be wrong anyway

[gatorcane]

if Rita strenghtens more rapidly than most of the models are predicting, then I expect a more poleward component and no WSW track.

[wxmann_91]

then why shift south if the models most likely will be to far south anyway...still makes no sense

If you look at the models compared to NHC, it doesn't make NHC look that bad at all.

They could have gone with the model consensus and showed a northern Cuba hit then not far from the Yucatan and then turning north, but they didn't.

It could have been a MUCH worse forecast/track.

ya it could of, but why make it just a little bad, if there is a good possibility the center will reform north, leave the track the same, dont move it south to be in better agreement with models that will be wrong anyway

Cause there is just as a good chance that the center will not reform north, which would decrease the chance of a US hit dramatically.

[Brent]

Once her southern side gets better, I fully expect a period of rapid intensification. It's slowly but steadily strengthening right now with a relative lack of convection south of the center. Not looking good for the Keys...

[jkt21787]

if Rita strenghtens more rapidly than most of the models are predicting, then I expect a more poleward component and no WSW track.

Can't go too much poleward, the ridge is too strong for that.

Katrina went WSW as it strengthened because of the ridge, with no poleward movement until reaching its eastern periphery and starting to reach the weakness and approaching trough.

So saying if it strengthens quickly then a WSW track can't occur is not true, because it still could depending on the ridge.

[Ivanhater]

then why shift south if the models most likely will be to far south anyway...still makes no sense

If you look at the models compared to NHC, it doesn't make NHC look that bad at all.

They could have gone with the model consensus and showed a northern Cuba hit then not far from the Yucatan and then turning north, but they didn't.

It could have been a MUCH worse forecast/track.

ya it could of, but why make it just a little bad, if there is a good possibility the center will reform north, leave the track the same, dont move it south to be in better agreement with models that will be wrong anyway

Cause there is just as a good chance that the center will not reform north, which would decrease the chance of a US hit dramatically.

actually no it wouldnt, south texas would still have a very high landfall threat...and he even mentioned it could reform further north, so leaving the track the same it the most logical solution

[gatorcane]

she appears to be rapidly strengthening the past couple of hours. The convection is blowing up about 75 miles NE of the the center. A new center could form here maybe and that would be big trouble for S. Florida and the FL Keys.

I don't like this situation here and am not buying due W south of the FL Keys.

[truballer#1]

I think Rita will be a weak ccat 1 hurricane around southern florida, and missin' cuba but barly and turn ito a stron cat 4 cane or weak 5 in gom at peak. The at landfall being a weak cat 4. If it hits cuba then the peak I think would be in gom is cat 2 or 3 and landfall at cat 2.

[truballer#1]

ill make a map later of my thinking

[THead]

she appears to be rapidly strengthening the past couple of hours. The convection is blowing up about 75 miles NE of the the center. A new center could form here maybe and that would be big trouble for S. Florida and the FL Keys.

I don't like this situation here and am not buying due W south of the FL Keys.

She definitely appears to be getting her act together somewhat. Outflow looking better and better.....we shall see...

[jkt21787]

she appears to be rapidly strengthening the past couple of hours. The convection is blowing up about 75 miles NE of the the center. A new center could form here maybe and that would be big trouble for S. Florida and the FL Keys.

I don't like this situation here and am not buying due W south of the FL Keys.

The convection can blow up all it wants, but until the center lines up with the convection, you can't call it rapid strenghtening, because it won't be attaining that until the above is complete, if at all.

If anything, its getting better organized at this point, not a RIC or the like by any stretch.

[krysof]

I think Rita will be a weak ccat 1 hurricane around southern florida, and missin' cuba but barly and turn ito a stron cat 4 cane or weak 5 in gom at peak. The at landfall being a weak cat 4. If it hits cuba then the peak I think would be in gom is cat 2 or 3 and landfall at cat 2.

There is no weak 5!

[curtadams]

A hit on Florida would be good for the rest of the gulf. It looks like Rita will be facing little shear at Florida's longitude. If she's over the Straits of Florida rapid intensification is likely. A hit on South Florida gives then TS damage - but it means that a weak TS moves into the Gulf rather than a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane.

[jlauderdal]

she appears to be rapidly strengthening the past couple of hours. The convection is blowing up about 75 miles NE of the the center. A new center could form here maybe and that would be big trouble for S. Florida and the FL Keys.

I don't like this situation here and am not buying due W south of the FL Keys.

Chris is correct and look how the system is flat on the SW side from the shear, the center will cross N of key west