mvtrucking wrote:With all the models pointing to the gulf after intializing
with the recon, this is a gulf storm.Mainland Florida sees nada.(Thats a good thing)
Then why did the NHC issue a TS watch for Broward and Miami-Dade??
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HeatherAKC wrote:*Bops w57 over the head with above mentioned umbrella. Better not break it!*
Seriously though, what was the reasoning here? Anyone?
ivanhater wrote:then why shift south if the models most likely will be to far south anyway...still makes no sense
jkt21787 wrote:ivanhater wrote:then why shift south if the models most likely will be to far south anyway...still makes no sense
If you look at the models compared to NHC, it doesn't make NHC look that bad at all.
They could have gone with the model consensus and showed a northern Cuba hit then not far from the Yucatan and then turning north, but they didn't.
It could have been a MUCH worse forecast/track.
ivanhater wrote:jkt21787 wrote:ivanhater wrote:then why shift south if the models most likely will be to far south anyway...still makes no sense
If you look at the models compared to NHC, it doesn't make NHC look that bad at all.
They could have gone with the model consensus and showed a northern Cuba hit then not far from the Yucatan and then turning north, but they didn't.
It could have been a MUCH worse forecast/track.
ya it could of, but why make it just a little bad, if there is a good possibility the center will reform north, leave the track the same, dont move it south to be in better agreement with models that will be wrong anyway
boca_chris wrote:if Rita strenghtens more rapidly than most of the models are predicting, then I expect a more poleward component and no WSW track.
wxmann_91 wrote:ivanhater wrote:jkt21787 wrote:ivanhater wrote:then why shift south if the models most likely will be to far south anyway...still makes no sense
If you look at the models compared to NHC, it doesn't make NHC look that bad at all.
They could have gone with the model consensus and showed a northern Cuba hit then not far from the Yucatan and then turning north, but they didn't.
It could have been a MUCH worse forecast/track.
ya it could of, but why make it just a little bad, if there is a good possibility the center will reform north, leave the track the same, dont move it south to be in better agreement with models that will be wrong anyway
Cause there is just as a good chance that the center will not reform north, which would decrease the chance of a US hit dramatically.
boca_chris wrote:she appears to be rapidly strengthening the past couple of hours. The convection is blowing up about 75 miles NE of the the center. A new center could form here maybe and that would be big trouble for S. Florida and the FL Keys.
I don't like this situation here and am not buying due W south of the FL Keys.
boca_chris wrote:she appears to be rapidly strengthening the past couple of hours. The convection is blowing up about 75 miles NE of the the center. A new center could form here maybe and that would be big trouble for S. Florida and the FL Keys.
I don't like this situation here and am not buying due W south of the FL Keys.
truballer#1 wrote:I think Rita will be a weak ccat 1 hurricane around southern florida, and missin' cuba but barly and turn ito a stron cat 4 cane or weak 5 in gom at peak. The at landfall being a weak cat 4. If it hits cuba then the peak I think would be in gom is cat 2 or 3 and landfall at cat 2.
boca_chris wrote:she appears to be rapidly strengthening the past couple of hours. The convection is blowing up about 75 miles NE of the the center. A new center could form here maybe and that would be big trouble for S. Florida and the FL Keys.
I don't like this situation here and am not buying due W south of the FL Keys.
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