Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[cycloneye]

[dixiebreeze]

I notice that the NHC wind field graph now includes the Big Bend area for TS winds, so there apparently has been an adjustment a bit farther north. I fear the track will eventually be left of what it is now. Just hope she weakens considerably before landfall.

[shaggy]

i am hoping this slight weatward shift after re-emerging into the Atlantic doesn't continue because it wouldn't take to much more for it to clip the OBX of North carolina on its way north!

[floridahurricaneguy]

looks worse for tampa area with the tracks now shifting more north. Have to watch more to see if track continues to shift north. Tampa said possible evacs in 48 hours.

Matt

[gatorcane]

I'm afraid the eventual track will take it through Tampa Bay - Sarasota - Bradenton....that trough won't turn it 50 degrees ENE across S. Florida.

Now if we were in Nov. I would say yes.

[cycloneye]

TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH WILMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE THEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED A BIT. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL BE HELD AT 150 KT
PENDING FURTHER RECONNAISSANCE DATA. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST
ESTIMATE FOR THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS A BLEND OF THE 881 MB
EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND THE 884 MB FROM AN EYE DROP THAT
SPLASHED IN 23 KT WINDS. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A DISTINCT OUTER
WIND MAXIMUM AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A FORMATIVE OUTER EYEWALL.
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE
INTENSITY OF WILMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THESE ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME AND ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
ONCE WILMA ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS IDEAL AS THEY ARE NOW AND SOME WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT WILMA WILL STILL BE A
FORMIDABLE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA. AFTER THAT...AS
WILMA INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE UPPER-LOW...THE WIND FIELD OF
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND CONSIDERABLY...AND EVEN GLOBAL MODELS
ARE SHOWING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM AT 5 DAYS.

PRONOUNCED TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATIONS ARE BEING SUPERIMPOSED ON A MEAN
MOTION OF 300/6. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS. HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND
NOGAPS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A THREAT TO NEW ENGLAND.
IN THIS SCENARIO...WILMA BECOMES CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN
FOUR DAYS. THE ECMWF AND IN PARTICULAR THE UKMET...BOTH OLDER
RUNS...DO NOT YET INDICATE THIS. THE FIVE-DAY OFFICIAL FORECAST
POINT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT IS STILL MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND THAN
THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.4N 83.2W 150 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 84.0W 150 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 19.1N 85.1W 150 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.9W 145 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 86.2W 135 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 24.0N 84.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 30.0N 77.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 39.0N 69.0W 80 KT

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

For those who misread my post... I said that GOING BY THE GRAPHIC THAT HURAKAN POSTED... look at that graphic, then see what I said. I am not arguing with the pro's or anything to that nature. -just stating my opinion based on the graphic presented. Afterall, this is a weather FORUM.

I'm not sure which model run that is depicting. It is a "fresh view" and not something I have yet seen in relation to Wilma's possible future.

My opinion is that we will see the models shifting slowly to the north - not drasticly - but little by little until landfall. I think that the angle of the front will be nearly as important as the speed at which Wilma moves to greet in in determining eventual landfall.

Personally, I am thinking closer to where Charley came in last year/southern Sarasota County. -which will not bode well for Orlando at all.

[chris_fit]

I'm afraid the eventual track will take it through Tampa Bay - Sarasota - Bradenton....that trough won't turn it 50 degrees ENE across S. Florida.

Now if we were in Nov. I would say yes.

Bingo. See my Post

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=76993

[DIDDLESBABE]

As I am in Ft. Myers - I don't like this even "little" shift to the North as
shown now. Unless I am wrong - and I hope that I am - we here
in Ft. Myers are in deep trouble any way you look at it.

Now - the question is what to do ?!?!?

[Solaris]

When you look closely at the latest WV, you see that the eye has now really cleared out. Wouldn't surprise if the hurricane hunter will find 87x mb central pressure.

[Trader Ron]

It's funny how on Monday, some were saying North, yesterday South, today North.

I'll stick with North of Tampa.

[Scorpion]

It's funny how on Monday, some were saying North, yesterday South, today North.

I'll stick with North of Tampa.

I have yet to see any models north of Tampa.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is the Worst Case Scenario besides for a Miami hit...With the Lake and The greater WPB area involved it could get nasty...

[Patrick99]

I'm afraid the eventual track will take it through Tampa Bay - Sarasota - Bradenton....that trough won't turn it 50 degrees ENE across S. Florida.

Now if we were in Nov. I would say yes.

Yeah, I'm thinking I'm largely out of the way of anything major, given the apparent north "trend." That front isn't going to kick the storm that sharply right to make it a Keys/Miami problem.

[caneman]

I'm afraid the eventual track will take it through Tampa Bay - Sarasota - Bradenton....that trough won't turn it 50 degrees ENE across S. Florida.

Now if we were in Nov. I would say yes.

Yeah, I'm thinking I'm largely out of the way of anything major, given the apparent north "trend." That front isn't going to kick the storm that sharply right to make it a Keys/Miami problem.

Been saying since yesterday Sarasota. With the expected expansion in size and wind radii this is gonna put Tampa to Ft. Myers and Orlando in a world of hurt.

[skysummit]

It's funny how on Monday, some were saying North, yesterday South, today North.

I'll stick with North of Tampa.

I have yet to see any models north of Tampa.

Me either, but that was my gut a few days ago so I'm going to stick with it. I'm still saying Cedar Key. Hey...if I'm wrong (most likely am), I'm wrong, but if I'm right....WOW I'd look good

[feederband]

This is the Worst Case Scenario besides for a Miami hit...With the Lake and The greater WPB area involved it could get nasty...

Wouldn't the worst case be just a tad bit north of Tampa?

[nequad]

Nogaps in through 72 hours. 72 hour surface plot below. Looks to be a tad north of previous runs.

[Windtalker1]

I'm afraid the eventual track will take it through Tampa Bay - Sarasota - Bradenton....that trough won't turn it 50 degrees ENE across S. Florida.

Now if we were in Nov. I would say yes.

Yeah, I'm thinking I'm largely out of the way of anything major, given the apparent north "trend." That front isn't going to kick the storm that sharply right to make it a Keys/Miami problem.

South South, North North, South North, North South....get the picture? These models will flip flop for the next 2 days...we will not really know where she is going until she passes Cuba. By then that Strong Cold Front just might be in the Gulf which will push Wilma more East than expected. Never says Never...it's and wait & Watch phase now.

[bayoubebe]

2 questions: How did it go from a 1 to a 5 so quickly?

What is it expected to be when it makes landfall in Florida?