Frances Advisories

[chris_fit]

What models are still due to come in the next few hours?

[BonesXL]

I remember you and your forecast and anaylsis have always been very correct....Very scary on the new info. coming out. Thanks.

[PurdueWx80]

Well, there are a lot, GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, GFDL, GEM...some of these will be a little later this afternoon.

[TexasStooge]

The NOGAPS and GFS models bring the core of the hurricane very close to the Florida east coast and suggest a landfall further to the north. This scenario is currently favored by the NHC. The UKMET model is further to the west....and the 00Z European model once again presents a direct impact on south/central Florida. The Canadian model takes the storm into the Florida Keys. The spread in the guidance late in the period is a result of how these individual models handle features well upstream (west) of the hurricane as they rotate around the globe and potentially impact the hurricane.

Looks like another one we'll have to keep an eye out for. We don't know how much more Florida could take.

[PurdueWx80]

12z GEM takes Frances in between Melbourne and JAX as a rapidly deepening storm..this is a considerable shift north...very interesting!

[chadtm80]

GFS to south FLorida http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120m.gif

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast takes bias down to northern Florida and Georgia. Not a bad jump for a day's work, but importantly, a northwestward turn is still included.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... ances.html

[Air Force Met]

I think you need to shift your attention either further south (quoting you) to Florida. I'm not sure which model you are biased towards (everyone has their favorites)...but I think if you will look at the trend to the west...where most of the models have been with the exception of a run or two...you will see you might want to focus your attention on our friends in Florida.

A very good statement was made by the NHC at 5...which they have said before...and some of us have been saying for a while:

THE BAD NEWS FOR THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA IS THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IN THE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS THROUGH 5 DAYS THAT COULD
SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN THIS RIDGE.

[Stormcenter]

I think you need to shift your attention either further south (quoting you) to Florida. I'm not sure which model you are biased towards (everyone has their favorites)...but I think if you will look at the trend to the west...where most of the models have been with the exception of a run or two...you will see you might want to focus your attention on our friends in Florida.

A very good statement was made by the NHC at 5...which they have said before...and some of us have been saying for a while:

THE BAD NEWS FOR THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA IS THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IN THE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS THROUGH 5 DAYS THAT COULD
SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN THIS RIDGE.

Air Force Met I hate to keep on saying this but another
VERY good post. I agree 100% with your response.

[Dean4Storms]

I've been harping on that for what seems like a week now Air Force, agree 150%!!

[Steve H.]

Air Force Met, they have shifted the position to the left as you know. I'm about 20 miles south of Melbourne Florida at 28N/80.5W. Do you think that the shift may continue to go further west and south? Like through the Florida straits into the GOM. Please figure out a way to get this outta here!! LOL Seems like we're still days away from this becoming a serious threat to our area. Is the margin of error decreased now since this morning, and has the GIV data been included in the data the 5pm discussion is based on? And could this weaken a bit when it slows??? Any info would be greatly appreciated. signed....nervous again near Melbourne.

[tropicsgal]

I myself am a little curious as to whether France might cross over into the Gulf? Not real concerned right now but the thought is there.

[Johnny]

Steve H....I'll let Air Force Met answer this for ya but it doesn't look good for Florida.

A question for Air Force Met. Not saying it will but if Frances got in the Gulf, will she be influenced by the trough coming down out of the Rockies come this weekend or at the beginning of next week?

[PurdueWx80]

What a beauty!!

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/2004243-0830/Frances.A2004243.1710.2km.jpg

[THead]

Was just watching Roland Steadham local met from miami, he was saying that another Hi is going to be moving in behind the current hi that is steering Frances. The way he was describing it seemed to be that it didn't really matter if the current Hi weakened on the western edge, because this new one coming in would still keep Frances on a more westardly course. Any thoughts or further info on this?

[Stormsfury]

Expect a quick and radical strengthening to take place, with a potential for a 15 mb dropoff in a matter of hours ... the storm is currently getting better organized with a very healthy poleward outflow channel in the order of 30-40 kts, along with good outflow south and north, fair eastern ...

Parameters of rapid intensification are close to being met ...

[Rainband]

Holy Crap

[Brent]

I agree. It's only a matter of time before this becomes a Cat 4 again.

[mf_dolphin]

If you're on a high speed connection try the 250M version of the same picture! Dial-up users, don't even try!

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gall ... 0.250m.jpg

[ChaserUK]

Crikey - she's cranking up again!