Bonnie Advisories

[Stormchaser16]

Lol

[PTrackerLA]

Okay back on topic now...it looks like TD 2 is starting to gain some latitude. It doesn't look overly organized either so I wouldn't expect a TS in the near future.

[cycloneye]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1200 PM EDT TUE 03 AUGUST 2004
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z AUG 2004
TCPOD NUMBER.....04-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 04/1200Z A. 05/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0102A CYCLONE B. NOAA9 0202A CYCLONE
C. 04/0600Z C. 04/1730Z
D. 15.0.0N 61.0W D. NA
E. 04/1100Z TO 04/1500Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 43,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE FLIGHT FOUR
A. 05/0600Z A. 05/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0302A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0402A CYCLONE
C. 05/0001Z C. 05/0600Z
D. 17.0N 65.0W D. 18.0N 67.0W
E. 05/0500Z TO 05/0900Z E. 05/1100Z TO 05/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. PROBABLE G-IV MISSION

I would be better to have a plane this afternoon than to wait until tommorow.

[yoda]

That's good.

[HURAKAN]

The system is starting to look impressive in every image, let see what will the RECON plane find tomorrow.

[lilbump3000]

To me its still moving due west, if anything its gaining some longitude quickly and looks like it will be at the islands in a few hours.

[yoda]

It will be a TS either by this afternoon or early tomorrow morning.

[Stormchaser16]

It could(but i only stress could) become a weak TS before making it into the Islands, regardless it appears as though a quick hitting heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely as it passes

[Stormchaser16]

Still a disorganized TD ATP, but looking better, still think a minimal TS before hitting the islands is possible. Shear should not be an issue with this storm, however dry air will be an issue it has to contend with

[Brent]

They are going to be out there at 12z? That's 8am ET. Or do they leave then?

[Stormchaser16]

I think that is when they leave, we probably wont have information until tommorow afternoon, or am i incorrect?

[cycloneye]

They are going to be out there at 12z? That's 8am ET. Or do they leave then?

First mission to system at 12z or 8 AM.They will depart from St Croix at 7 AM.

[Skywatch_NC]

My Bonnie lies over the ocean...
My Bonnie lies over the sea...
My Bonnie lies over the ocean...
Oh bring back my Bonnie to me.

But seriously though...5 to 7 days out...at least for NC...they've already had 1 Bonnie...

Eric

[yoda]

Hard to see the future is. Always in motion the future is. Hmm 2 Bonnies in 6 years? Fascinating it would be if Bonnie hit NC again..

[Stormchaser16]

Ahhhh ok yes i was wrong, hopefully information will be coming in later tommorow morning

[Brent]

They are going to be out there at 12z? That's 8am ET. Or do they leave then?

First mission to system at 12z or 8 AM.They will depart from St Croix at 7 AM.

I was under the impression they were leaving from Keesler. Oops. I knew it would take several hours to get there.

[BonesXL]

Any chance of this system slowing down?

[PuertoRicoLibre]

By tomorrow it will already be at 60W literally on top of the lesser antilles. And the overall structure seems to continue to improve. Would not be surprised if it is already a TS based solely on the infra red.

[Brent]

By tomorrow it will already be at 60W literally on top of the lesser antilles. And the overall structure seems to continue to improve. Would not be surprised if it is already a TS based solely on the infra red.

In fact, the 8am ET position in the morning has it OVER the islands. Recon should have gone out today.

[yoda]

If someone hasd posted this already.. tell me and then delete it..

000
WHXX01 KWBC 031444
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL022004) ON 20040803 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040803 1200 040804 0000 040804 1200 040805 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.9N 53.3W 13.8N 56.6W 14.7N 59.4W 15.5N 61.8W
BAMM 12.9N 53.3W 13.7N 56.9W 14.5N 60.2W 15.3N 63.2W
A98E 12.9N 53.3W 13.5N 57.2W 14.2N 60.7W 14.9N 63.6W
LBAR 12.9N 53.3W 13.7N 57.0W 14.3N 60.5W 14.8N 63.8W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040805 1200 040806 1200 040807 1200 040808 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.4N 63.8W 18.5N 66.2W 21.3N 67.6W 22.9N 69.6W
BAMM 16.0N 65.7W 17.7N 69.3W 20.4N 71.6W 22.9N 72.9W
A98E 15.3N 66.0W 17.4N 69.5W 19.7N 72.1W 23.5N 74.9W
LBAR 15.0N 66.7W 16.5N 71.2W 17.7N 73.4W 23.2N 73.3W
SHIP 49KTS 60KTS 66KTS 70KTS
DSHP 49KTS 60KTS 40KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.9N LONCUR = 53.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 49.0W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 45.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Also, could someone post the image from here...?
http://net-waves.com/weather/model.php

Hmmm... What does my little eye see? 3 of the 4 model runs there HAVE NOT curved it yet. The UKMET has already done so. Hmm and the other three model runs (whether they come true ot not, just stating here) have shifted more west before the turn NW. IF TRUE, this would mean that the MA and SE would have to watch out, but we will see...