Bonnie Advisories
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- cycloneye
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Plan of the day for TD#2/Bonnie starting tommorow morning
000
NOUS42 KNHC 031600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1200 PM EDT TUE 03 AUGUST 2004
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z AUG 2004
TCPOD NUMBER.....04-066
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 04/1200Z A. 05/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0102A CYCLONE B. NOAA9 0202A CYCLONE
C. 04/0600Z C. 04/1730Z
D. 15.0.0N 61.0W D. NA
E. 04/1100Z TO 04/1500Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 43,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE FLIGHT FOUR
A. 05/0600Z A. 05/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0302A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0402A CYCLONE
C. 05/0001Z C. 05/0600Z
D. 17.0N 65.0W D. 18.0N 67.0W
E. 05/0500Z TO 05/0900Z E. 05/1100Z TO 05/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. PROBABLE G-IV MISSION
I would be better to have a plane this afternoon than to wait until tommorow.
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Brent wrote:They are going to be out there at 12z? That's 8am ET. Or do they leave then?
First mission to system at 12z or 8 AM.They will depart from St Croix at 7 AM.
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cycloneye wrote:Brent wrote:They are going to be out there at 12z? That's 8am ET. Or do they leave then?
First mission to system at 12z or 8 AM.They will depart from St Croix at 7 AM.
I was under the impression they were leaving from Keesler. Oops.

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#neversummer
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The Plane Should Go Today!
By tomorrow it will already be at 60W literally on top of the lesser antilles. And the overall structure seems to continue to improve. Would not be surprised if it is already a TS based solely on the infra red.
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Re: The Plane Should Go Today!
PuertoRicoLibre wrote:By tomorrow it will already be at 60W literally on top of the lesser antilles. And the overall structure seems to continue to improve. Would not be surprised if it is already a TS based solely on the infra red.
In fact, the 8am ET position in the morning has it OVER the islands. Recon should have gone out today.

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#neversummer
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1200 UTC message for TD#2
If someone hasd posted this already.. tell me and then delete it..
000
WHXX01 KWBC 031444
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL022004) ON 20040803 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040803 1200 040804 0000 040804 1200 040805 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.9N 53.3W 13.8N 56.6W 14.7N 59.4W 15.5N 61.8W
BAMM 12.9N 53.3W 13.7N 56.9W 14.5N 60.2W 15.3N 63.2W
A98E 12.9N 53.3W 13.5N 57.2W 14.2N 60.7W 14.9N 63.6W
LBAR 12.9N 53.3W 13.7N 57.0W 14.3N 60.5W 14.8N 63.8W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040805 1200 040806 1200 040807 1200 040808 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.4N 63.8W 18.5N 66.2W 21.3N 67.6W 22.9N 69.6W
BAMM 16.0N 65.7W 17.7N 69.3W 20.4N 71.6W 22.9N 72.9W
A98E 15.3N 66.0W 17.4N 69.5W 19.7N 72.1W 23.5N 74.9W
LBAR 15.0N 66.7W 16.5N 71.2W 17.7N 73.4W 23.2N 73.3W
SHIP 49KTS 60KTS 66KTS 70KTS
DSHP 49KTS 60KTS 40KTS 44KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.9N LONCUR = 53.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 49.0W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 45.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Also, could someone post the image from here...?
http://net-waves.com/weather/model.php
Hmmm... What does my little eye see? 3 of the 4 model runs there HAVE NOT curved it yet. The UKMET has already done so. Hmm and the other three model runs (whether they come true ot not, just stating here) have shifted more west before the turn NW. IF TRUE, this would mean that the MA and SE would have to watch out, but we will see...


000
WHXX01 KWBC 031444
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL022004) ON 20040803 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040803 1200 040804 0000 040804 1200 040805 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.9N 53.3W 13.8N 56.6W 14.7N 59.4W 15.5N 61.8W
BAMM 12.9N 53.3W 13.7N 56.9W 14.5N 60.2W 15.3N 63.2W
A98E 12.9N 53.3W 13.5N 57.2W 14.2N 60.7W 14.9N 63.6W
LBAR 12.9N 53.3W 13.7N 57.0W 14.3N 60.5W 14.8N 63.8W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040805 1200 040806 1200 040807 1200 040808 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.4N 63.8W 18.5N 66.2W 21.3N 67.6W 22.9N 69.6W
BAMM 16.0N 65.7W 17.7N 69.3W 20.4N 71.6W 22.9N 72.9W
A98E 15.3N 66.0W 17.4N 69.5W 19.7N 72.1W 23.5N 74.9W
LBAR 15.0N 66.7W 16.5N 71.2W 17.7N 73.4W 23.2N 73.3W
SHIP 49KTS 60KTS 66KTS 70KTS
DSHP 49KTS 60KTS 40KTS 44KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.9N LONCUR = 53.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 49.0W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 45.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Also, could someone post the image from here...?
http://net-waves.com/weather/model.php
Hmmm... What does my little eye see? 3 of the 4 model runs there HAVE NOT curved it yet. The UKMET has already done so. Hmm and the other three model runs (whether they come true ot not, just stating here) have shifted more west before the turn NW. IF TRUE, this would mean that the MA and SE would have to watch out, but we will see...


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