ATL: ALBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

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ATL: ALBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 17, 2024 7:36 am

AL, 91, 2024061712, , BEST, 0, 195N, 925W, 30, 1004, D


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https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal912024.dat
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2 Postby tolakram » Mon Jun 17, 2024 7:50 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3 Postby jaguars_22 » Mon Jun 17, 2024 7:59 am

Looks like this could go much further south than originally thought… if it tightens up too much, texas may not see high rain totals
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#4 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 17, 2024 8:13 am

Looking at HR vis sat loop this morning the CoC appears to still be inland, just south of Ciudad del Carmen, unless that's a low to mid level circulation.
Recon later today should clarify it for us.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#5 Postby Wampadawg » Mon Jun 17, 2024 8:16 am

jaguars_22 wrote:Looks like this could go much further south than originally thought… if it tightens up too much, texas may not see high rain totals

Oh I think Texas will get some problems out of this mess
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#6 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Jun 17, 2024 8:50 am

My guess is this'll become Alberto, max winds of 40 knots before landfall north of Tampico.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#7 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Jun 17, 2024 8:55 am

Finally it looks like we will be getting a good soaker down here in Deep South Texas...5-7 Inches seems to be the consensus right now. The best part is that our watershed looks like will be getting a much needed drink! Hopefully the lakes and reservoirs in South Texas and Northern Mexico get a significant rise in water levels.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#8 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jun 17, 2024 8:57 am

Look at how huge this thing is, and it already has good outflow
 https://x.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1802678361258639483


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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#9 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Jun 17, 2024 9:02 am

Rgv20 wrote:Finally it looks like we will be getting a good soaker down here in Deep South Texas...5-7 Inches seems to be the consensus right now. The best part is that our watershed looks like will be getting a much needed drink! Hopefully the lakes and reservoirs in South Texas and Northern Mexico get a significant rise in water levels.


It is looking that way. You all need it in the worst way. The only problem is will it ( with training), go over the 5-7 forecasted.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#10 Postby jaguars_22 » Mon Jun 17, 2024 9:10 am

If it hits Tampico I don’t see how we in mid Texas coast and Houston can get much rain! Especially if this tightens up more… I think the totals from Houston to corpus will probably go down to 2-3 inches.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#11 Postby skyline385 » Mon Jun 17, 2024 9:13 am

Very clear rotation on visible

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#12 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 17, 2024 9:14 am

Lots of moisture rotating around the CAG heading towards TX regardless if it makes landfall well south in MX.

Not a good beach day in Cancun this morning.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#13 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 17, 2024 9:32 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#14 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jun 17, 2024 9:39 am

Disturbance will likely have 2-3 vorticity centers, which is common for such a gyre. I would think NHC will start advisories shortly, as TS wind could be approaching the coast in about 48 hrs. They'd need to issue TS watches.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#15 Postby TexasF6 » Mon Jun 17, 2024 9:40 am

Remember what Levi said last night. Watch the MLC spinning on the Yucatan! This will dumbell as he said. Bears watching!!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#16 Postby Wampadawg » Mon Jun 17, 2024 9:46 am

TexasF6 wrote:Remember what Levi said last night. Watch the MLC spinning on the Yucatan! This will dumbell as he said. Bears watching!!!

Alberto’s Facebook profile changed to its complicated
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#17 Postby Wampadawg » Mon Jun 17, 2024 9:51 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#18 Postby ljmac75 » Mon Jun 17, 2024 9:55 am

How strong will this thing get? I'll throw out a guess of a 50kt tropical storm, making landfall near the Mexico/Texas border.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#19 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jun 17, 2024 10:09 am

ljmac75 wrote:How strong will this thing get? I'll throw out a guess of a 50kt tropical storm, making landfall near the Mexico/Texas border.


These type of systems take a long time to get going. I'm thinking 35-40 kts in a few squalls N-NE of the broad center.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#20 Postby skyline385 » Mon Jun 17, 2024 10:27 am

Looking much better than I expected it to be, given its broad nature. Some westerlies visible near the coast as well. There is another ML rotation though (currently inland) which could compete with it and cause issues but overall its looking good.

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