ATL: ALBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2024061712, , BEST, 0, 195N, 925W, 30, 1004, D

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal912024.dat

[tolakram]

Floater from COD: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-12-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Wider view: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Yucatan-02-12-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[jaguars_22]

Looks like this could go much further south than originally thought… if it tightens up too much, texas may not see high rain totals

[NDG]

Looking at HR vis sat loop this morning the CoC appears to still be inland, just south of Ciudad del Carmen, unless that's a low to mid level circulation.
Recon later today should clarify it for us.

[Wampadawg]

Looks like this could go much further south than originally thought… if it tightens up too much, texas may not see high rain totals

Oh I think Texas will get some problems out of this mess

[Hypercane_Kyle]

My guess is this'll become Alberto, max winds of 40 knots before landfall north of Tampico.

[Rgv20]

Finally it looks like we will be getting a good soaker down here in Deep South Texas...5-7 Inches seems to be the consensus right now. The best part is that our watershed looks like will be getting a much needed drink! Hopefully the lakes and reservoirs in South Texas and Northern Mexico get a significant rise in water levels.

[Iceresistance]

Look at how huge this thing is, and it already has good outflow
 https://x.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1802678361258639483

[Tireman4]

Finally it looks like we will be getting a good soaker down here in Deep South Texas...5-7 Inches seems to be the consensus right now. The best part is that our watershed looks like will be getting a much needed drink! Hopefully the lakes and reservoirs in South Texas and Northern Mexico get a significant rise in water levels.

It is looking that way. You all need it in the worst way. The only problem is will it ( with training), go over the 5-7 forecasted.

[jaguars_22]

If it hits Tampico I don’t see how we in mid Texas coast and Houston can get much rain! Especially if this tightens up more… I think the totals from Houston to corpus will probably go down to 2-3 inches.

[skyline385]

Very clear rotation on visible

[NDG]

Lots of moisture rotating around the CAG heading towards TX regardless if it makes landfall well south in MX.

Not a good beach day in Cancun this morning.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/JimCantore/status/1802709974407094290

[wxman57]

Disturbance will likely have 2-3 vorticity centers, which is common for such a gyre. I would think NHC will start advisories shortly, as TS wind could be approaching the coast in about 48 hrs. They'd need to issue TS watches.

[TexasF6]

Remember what Levi said last night. Watch the MLC spinning on the Yucatan! This will dumbell as he said. Bears watching!!!

[Wampadawg]

Remember what Levi said last night. Watch the MLC spinning on the Yucatan! This will dumbell as he said. Bears watching!!!

Alberto’s Facebook profile changed to its complicated

[Wampadawg]

 https://x.com/mattlanza/status/1802707405589168171

[ljmac75]

How strong will this thing get? I'll throw out a guess of a 50kt tropical storm, making landfall near the Mexico/Texas border.

[wxman57]

How strong will this thing get? I'll throw out a guess of a 50kt tropical storm, making landfall near the Mexico/Texas border.

These type of systems take a long time to get going. I'm thinking 35-40 kts in a few squalls N-NE of the broad center.

[skyline385]

Looking much better than I expected it to be, given its broad nature. Some westerlies visible near the coast as well. There is another ML rotation though (currently inland) which could compete with it and cause issues but overall its looking good.