ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

A recurve is definitely the most likely outcome here, but I won't feel reaching that conclusion for at least a few more days. Mid-August climo suggests that, while still less likely than a recurve, the sub-seasonal risk for a US east coast landfall from an MDR storm remains comparatively elevated. Until Erin completes her forecasted WSW motion and we have a better idea of the position and strength of the ridge over the North Atlantic, we won't be able to say where this storm ends up definitively. The synoptic pattern surrounding Florence was also favoring a recurve... until the building ridge turned out to be far stronger than originally modeled.

And even if the likely recurve does happen, I think it's important to remember that recurve ≠ fish storm. An impact to Bermuda or Atlantic Canada are both well within the range of realistic outcomes.

Moved your post from the models thread to here.

[Beef Stew]

A recurve is definitely the most likely outcome here, but I won't feel reaching that conclusion for at least a few more days. Mid-August climo suggests that, while still less likely than a recurve, the sub-seasonal risk for a US east coast landfall from an MDR storm remains comparatively elevated. Until Erin completes her forecasted WSW motion and we have a better idea of the position and strength of the ridge over the North Atlantic, we won't be able to say where this storm ends up definitively. The synoptic pattern surrounding Florence was also favoring a recurve... until the building ridge turned out to be far stronger than originally modeled.

And even if the likely recurve does happen, I think it's important to remember that recurve ≠ fish storm. An impact to Bermuda or Atlantic Canada are both well within the range of realistic outcomes.

Moved your post from the models thread to here.

Thanks! Yeah, it's more relevant here than in the models thread.

[Cachondo23]

Unfortunately, Cape Verde has reported damages and 5 deaths from the newly-upgraded Tropical Storm ERIN.
 https://x.com/dtudo1poucocv/status/1954862958984540427

Who knows if PTC advisories could have avoided this situation. At least have them prepared that squally weather was in their geographical area.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1954920297930391715

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 05, 2025081118, , BEST, 0, 174N, 293W, 40, 1004, TS

[eastcoastFL]

Unfortunately, Cape Verde has reported damages and 5 deaths from the newly-upgraded Tropical Storm ERIN.
 https://x.com/dtudo1poucocv/status/1954862958984540427

Who knows if PTC advisories could have avoided this situation. At least have them prepared that squally weather was in their geographical area.

That would've been a decision for the local authorities. They apparently didn't think it was necessary

[wxman57]

ASCAT-C descending pass from 11Z did not indicate an LLC or 35kt winds. This may still be an open wave. It's fighting another round of SAL coming in from the east now. May not really get going until it passes north of the eastern Caribbean on Saturday. 12Z EC shifted about 60 miles east, passing closer to Bermuda next Monday evening.

[Sciencerocks]

[JetFuel_SE]

ASCAT-C descending pass from 11Z did not indicate an LLC or 35kt winds. This may still be an open wave. It's fighting another round of SAL coming in from the east now. May not really get going until it passes north of the eastern Caribbean on Saturday. 12Z EC shifted about 60 miles east, passing closer to Bermuda next Monday evening.

would you be kind enough to show said ASCAT pass?

[sasha_B]

ASCAT-C descending pass from 11Z did not indicate an LLC or 35kt winds. This may still be an open wave. It's fighting another round of SAL coming in from the east now. May not really get going until it passes north of the eastern Caribbean on Saturday. 12Z EC shifted about 60 miles east, passing closer to Bermuda next Monday evening.

The official forecast and model intensity guidance suggests otherwise, and there was plenty of support for a closed circulation last night as assessed by the NHC. It's true that satellite intensity estimates have dropped off since last night, but scatterometer data from the same timeframe seems to indicate that there were winds of 35～40 kts and a closed albeit elongated circulation, at least at that time:

We also received scatterometer data at 1107 UTC
with a peak wind retrieval of 39 kt embedded in this convection,
with an ambiguity analysis suggesting the circulation is also
well defined, albeit still somewhat elongated on the eastern edge.

There's a lot of uncertainty in the forecast long-term but the support for for gradual intensification over the next 48 hours is strong, assuming the NHC's assesment of the 11z scatterometry was correct.

[Ian2401]

ASCAT-C descending pass from 11Z did not indicate an LLC or 35kt winds. This may still be an open wave. It's fighting another round of SAL coming in from the east now. May not really get going until it passes north of the eastern Caribbean on Saturday. 12Z EC shifted about 60 miles east, passing closer to Bermuda next Monday evening.

would you be kind enough to show said ASCAT pass?

Definitely no LLC based purely on this pass. ASCAT is pretty coarse however, and it's possible the circulation is too small for ASCAT to resolve