NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[zzzh]

150kt FL in NE

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Going into the night time, storm may strengthen more. Many of you seem disappointed in the storm "stalling." The pressure is at 910 mb. Some crazy cold tops. The amount of lightning around the center for this long is more than I think I've seen. This is still an incredible storm and deserves its flowers.

I'm thinking it ramps up again in a few hours. Possibly start expanding the wind field just before landfall.

[Teban54]

150kt FL in NE

This batch is cut off exactly at the 150 kt FL from what I can see, so it's possible for higher winds to be reported later.

Edit: Also, still no double wind maxima until this 150 kt.

[Teban54]

AF pass: 156 kt FL in the SW quad, and 909.6 mb extrap. Seems to be intensifying again compared to the first pass (if only slightly), pending dropsonade.

Edit: NOAA pass was at almost the same time (and the same angle). 152 kt FL in the NE quad, 910.2 mb extrap. Hasn't reached peak winds to the SW yet.

[zzzh]

FL 156 in the SW. Really weird

[Travorum]

910.2mb extrap on NOAA, 909.6mb extrap on AF. 156kt FL winds on the AF plane and for what its worth 164kt SFMR, both in the SW quad.

[WaveBreaking]

158kt FL
909.6mbar extrap MSLP @ 16kt

[Nimbus]

150kt FL in NE

This batch is cut off exactly at the 150 kt FL from what I can see, so it's possible for higher winds to be reported later.

Edit: Also, still no double wind maxima until this 150 kt.

Is tropical tidbits getting overloaded, I got a few gateway errors and no update?
Oh there it is 909.6

[Jr0d]

ooks like AF may have missed the eye also, we will see with the next batch of data. My guess is the turbulence is so bad they are having trouble holding a straight course. edit...i was mistaken

When I went sleep to around noon, I did not expect to wake up to Melissa still having a perfect eye and expected an EWRC, or even some dry air intrusion. Its rare for a storm to be able maintain this kind of intensity and this effectively perfect structure for so long.

[aspen]

Holding steady around 910 it seems. SW eyewall is ludicrous.

[aspen]

150kt FL in NE

This batch is cut off exactly at the 150 kt FL from what I can see, so it's possible for higher winds to be reported later.

Edit: Also, still no double wind maxima until this 150 kt.

Is tropical tidbits getting overloaded, I got a few gateway errors and no update?

I’ve been getting a ton too. I think it is from everyone checking in on recon lol. Pressing the refresh button solves it every time.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

164 knots on SFMR... incredible.

[Sciencerocks]

[Jr0d]

164 knots on SFMR... incredible.

SFMR is not reliable, especially with winds this high. Its good data if used properly but it tends to overestimate wind speed.

[Teban54]

Question: Why did they schedule the recon in a way that have two planes penetrate the eye at almost the same time and the same angle?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

164 knots on SFMR... incredible.

SFMR is not reliable, especially with winds this high. Its good data if used properly but it tends to overestimate wind speed.

Clearly it must have some degree of accuracy, because the NHC is using 175mph.

CDO is cooling, down to -79.5C..

[Kazmit]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/8479/7RGx5Y.gif

The CDO looks like it’s expanding, to the west especially.

[Ian2401]

Question: Why did they schedule the recon in a way that have two planes penetrate the eye at almost the same time and the same angle?

If I had to guess it is another layer of confidence in their wind speed and pressure measurements if both planes show similar readings.

[sikkar]

Ocean heat content working its magic.

[NotoSans]

164 knots on SFMR... incredible.

SFMR is not reliable, especially with winds this high. Its good data if used properly but it tends to overestimate wind speed.

Clearly it must have some degree of accuracy, because the NHC is using 175mph.

CDO is cooling, down to -79.5C..

The NHC took into account dropsonde winds but not SFMR.

The aircraft measured maximum 700-mb flight-level
winds of 161 kt, which supports surface winds of near 145 kt. In
addition, low-level winds measured by a dropwindsonde in the
northeastern eyewall support surface winds of 155 kt. During the
time since the aircraft departed the hurricane, there has been
little change in organization and no obvious signs that Melissa has
weakened. Thus, the initial intensity is set at 150 kt as a blend
of the surface wind estimates mentioned above.