NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[cycloneye]

When is the next plane?

4 AM NOAA.

[aspen]

Of course the barometer wasn’t working this time lol. Hope they got a good drop in. I see they circled around a bit in the eye.

[psyclone]

Melissa reminds me of Milton at peak intensity...except Melissa is going to strike at or near that intensity. It seems like the core is wide enough to cover about a third of Jamaica or so. that eyewall swath is going to look like e-f4 tornado damage most likely...unless we get some sort of miracle weakening...and even then the storm is so strong it could fill a good bit and still be a monster. 2025 saved the worst for last.

[CrazyC83]

When is the next plane?

This one is in until 0530Z I believe. The next one after that leaves at 0800Z.

[zzzh]

972
UZNT13 KNHC 280247
XXAA 78038 99166 70785 04468 99903 27415 14505 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85541 23808 22006 70233 ///// 88999 77999
31313 09608 80234
61616 AF301 2213A MELISSA OB 22
62626 CENTER MBL WND 20505 AEV 40002 DLM WND 21005 903842 WL150 2
0504 080 REL 1660N07854W 023616 SPG 1660N07854W 023706 =
XXBB 78038 99166 70785 04468 00903 27415 11850 23808 22726 17407
33724 17823 44720 22860 55714 24064 66705 24065
21212 00903 14505 11850 22006 22842 23006
31313 09608 80234
61616 AF301 2213A MELISSA OB 22
62626 CENTER MBL WND 20505 AEV 40002 DLM WND 21005 903842 WL150 2
0504 080 REL 1660N07854W 023616 SPG 1660N07854W 023706 =
;

dropsonde 903mb

[Teban54]

When is the next plane?

4 AM NOAA.

The current AF plane has an exit time of 0530z (1:30 am EDT) for a 6-hour-long mission, so it should do a few more passes (if I understood it correctly).

[aspen]

903/5, so 902 mb it seems.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The pressure did not work so wait for the dropsonde.

They are well past the center, and I don't see a drop from when they were in it
Edit...903

[Hurricane2022]

When is the next plane?

4 AM NOAA.

From cyclonicwx:

Depart time: 28/0800Z (5 hours and 15 minutes from now)

Entry time: 28/1000Z

Fix time: 28/1200Z

This plane will depart from Meli at 0530z, so we still have two more penetrations, if the aircraft remains well.

[Keldeo1997]

Hmm there is no Double wind max

[Teban54]

Here's the eye drop:

[Fancy1002]

972
UZNT13 KNHC 280247
XXAA 78038 99166 70785 04468 99903 27415 14505 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85541 23808 22006 70233 ///// 88999 77999
31313 09608 80234
61616 AF301 2213A MELISSA OB 22
62626 CENTER MBL WND 20505 AEV 40002 DLM WND 21005 903842 WL150 2
0504 080 REL 1660N07854W 023616 SPG 1660N07854W 023706 =
XXBB 78038 99166 70785 04468 00903 27415 11850 23808 22726 17407
33724 17823 44720 22860 55714 24064 66705 24065
21212 00903 14505 11850 22006 22842 23006
31313 09608 80234
61616 AF301 2213A MELISSA OB 22
62626 CENTER MBL WND 20505 AEV 40002 DLM WND 21005 903842 WL150 2
0504 080 REL 1660N07854W 023616 SPG 1660N07854W 023706 =
;

dropsonde 903mb

It seems like it broke and didn’t reach the surface.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'd go with 180mph, 902mb based on that last pass and dropsonde data.

[wx98]

Keep in mind that this AF plane's extrap pressure on the last pass was too low: it was extrapolating 903 mb, when two dropsonades from different aircraft confirmed 907 mb.

So hold your breath once you see the pressure, until the dropsonade confirms it.

Or the AF plane could just not broadcast extrap pressure and we can wait for the dropsonde apparently.

Anyway, NE quad has 162 kt FL, similar to SW. Some other recent passes also had surprisingly high FL winds in the SW quad as well.

The system is barely moving, so, theoretically, winds should be similar in all quads with lack of forward motion.

[Jr0d]

When is the next plane?

4 AM NOAA.

The current AF plane has an exit time of 0530z (1:30 am EDT) for a 6-hour-long mission, so it should do a few more passes (if I understood it correctly).

If so, I hope they can get their surface pressure data back online. Also I am sure the crew and plane have taken a beating so making the full 6 hours will be one hell of an accomplishment for the crew, the plane and those maintaining the WC-130s.

[CrazyC83]

Welcome to the Top 10, Melissa.

That reading would place it at either a tie for 8th or sole possession of 9th all-time.

[ScottNAtlanta]

lol...time to start hitting refresh on the NHC site

[dukeblue219]

It seems like it broke and didn’t reach the surface.

Based on?

[abajan]

Preparations for Melissa in Jamaica earlier today:



Link: https://youtu.be/NSV8Lx20fH8

My apologies if this has already been shared but with almost 100 pages of comments, duplicate content can easily be missed.

[Hurricane2022]

NHC 150 903