NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[CrazyC83]

Estimating out the heights, I certainly think this is sub-900 now - perhaps by a fair bit. The last peak run had 2,308m at 697.2 mb (and that was 903 mb).

[Teban54]

Keep in mind that this AF plane's extrap pressure on the last pass was too low: it was extrapolating 903 mb, when two dropsonades from different aircraft confirmed 907 mb.

So hold your breath once you see the pressure, until the dropsonade confirms it.

[ScottNAtlanta]

 https://x.com/stormchasernick/status/1982920947322835000


 https://x.com/TannerCharlesMN/status/1982926984150954134

Was kinda waiting for a Superman fly by with that music...lol

[Travorum]

Keep in mind that this AF plane's extrap pressure on the last pass was too low: it was extrapolating 903 mb, when two dropsonades from different aircraft confirmed 907 mb.

So hold your breath once you see the pressure, until the dropsonade confirms it.

Or the AF plane could just not broadcast extrap pressure and we can wait for the dropsonde apparently.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I know there's reliability questions but 163 knot SFMR is beyond impressive.

[Hurricane2022]

Lolll we had no extrap pressure this time

[CrazyC83]

Pressure not calculated. However, using the previous set and the decrease in heights, that would be an extrapolated 899 mb. Now we wait for the dropsonde.

[Teban54]

Keep in mind that this AF plane's extrap pressure on the last pass was too low: it was extrapolating 903 mb, when two dropsonades from different aircraft confirmed 907 mb.

So hold your breath once you see the pressure, until the dropsonade confirms it.

Or the AF plane could just not broadcast extrap pressure and we can wait for the dropsonde apparently.

Anyway, NE quad has 162 kt FL, similar to SW. Some other recent passes also had surprisingly high FL winds in the SW quad as well.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Such a mixed bag of feelings right now. I am both in awe, and terror. Its a difficult watch.

Each frame, the storm keeps improving. Prayers for Jamaica

[cycloneye]

The pressure did not work so wait for the dropsonde.

[CrazyC83]

Now, what to go with for the intensity? The dropsonde earlier confirmed a spot peak of 151 kt, while the flight-level winds support about 150 kt. I'd go with 155 kt, but a case could be made for 160 kt as well.

[InfernoFlameCat]

When is the next plane?

[cycloneye]

When is the next plane?

4 AM NOAA.

[aspen]

Of course the barometer wasn’t working this time lol. Hope they got a good drop in. I see they circled around a bit in the eye.

[psyclone]

Melissa reminds me of Milton at peak intensity...except Melissa is going to strike at or near that intensity. It seems like the core is wide enough to cover about a third of Jamaica or so. that eyewall swath is going to look like e-f4 tornado damage most likely...unless we get some sort of miracle weakening...and even then the storm is so strong it could fill a good bit and still be a monster. 2025 saved the worst for last.

[CrazyC83]

When is the next plane?

This one is in until 0530Z I believe. The next one after that leaves at 0800Z.

[zzzh]

972
UZNT13 KNHC 280247
XXAA 78038 99166 70785 04468 99903 27415 14505 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85541 23808 22006 70233 ///// 88999 77999
31313 09608 80234
61616 AF301 2213A MELISSA OB 22
62626 CENTER MBL WND 20505 AEV 40002 DLM WND 21005 903842 WL150 2
0504 080 REL 1660N07854W 023616 SPG 1660N07854W 023706 =
XXBB 78038 99166 70785 04468 00903 27415 11850 23808 22726 17407
33724 17823 44720 22860 55714 24064 66705 24065
21212 00903 14505 11850 22006 22842 23006
31313 09608 80234
61616 AF301 2213A MELISSA OB 22
62626 CENTER MBL WND 20505 AEV 40002 DLM WND 21005 903842 WL150 2
0504 080 REL 1660N07854W 023616 SPG 1660N07854W 023706 =
;

dropsonde 903mb

[Teban54]

When is the next plane?

4 AM NOAA.

The current AF plane has an exit time of 0530z (1:30 am EDT) for a 6-hour-long mission, so it should do a few more passes (if I understood it correctly).

[aspen]

903/5, so 902 mb it seems.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The pressure did not work so wait for the dropsonde.

They are well past the center, and I don't see a drop from when they were in it
Edit...903