NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

The top 10 most intense storms now:

1) Wilma - 882
2) Gilbert - 888
3) 1935 Labor Day - 892
4) Milton - 895
4) Rita - 895
6) Allen - 899
7) Camille - 900
8) Katrina - 902
9) Melissa - 903
10) Dean - 905
10) Mitch - 905

[Travorum]

150kts/903mb at 11pm, Melissa is #9 of all time by intensity

[Teban54]

The top 10 most intense storms now:

1) Wilma - 882
2) Gilbert - 888
3) 1935 Labor Day - 892
4) Milton - 895
4) Rita - 895
6) Allen - 899
7) Camille - 900
8) Katrina - 902
9) Melissa - 903
10) Dean - 905
10) Mitch - 905

We're at the point where, if the current trend continues, every recon pass can shake off one or a few more storms from the list.

[Category5Kaiju]

There's a very real possibility that Melissa's minimum core pressure will be lower than Mitch's and Dean's; the significant of this is that future Atlantic hurricanes would need to have a core pressure of LESS THAN 905 MBAR to even crack the top 10 most intense in history.

And, assuming we continue to get storms like Dorian, Milton, or Melissa in future seasons, then I do believe there will come a point when the top 10 most intense Atlantic hurricane list will solely consist of sub-900 members.

Edit: confirmed.

[aspen]

Odd eyewall drop. Winds drop from 140 kt to 122 kt right above the surface, then pick up to 160+ kt by the 919mb level.

[zal0phus]

Another top-ten hurricane. What a terrible yet astounding two years it's been

[Teban54]

NHC no longer forecasts any weakening before landfall, and has 150 kt for the next forecast point. (I believe that the "inland" and "over water" were labeled on the wrong lines.)

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 16.6N 78.5W 150 KT 175 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 17.5N 78.3W 150 KT 175 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 18.8N 77.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 20.7N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0000Z 23.0N 74.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 30/1200Z 25.8N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 29.8N 68.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 38.9N 56.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 47.5N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The top 10 most intense storms now:

1) Wilma - 882
2) Gilbert - 888
3) 1935 Labor Day - 892
4) Milton - 895
4) Rita - 895
6) Allen - 899
7) Camille - 900
8) Katrina - 902
9) Melissa - 903
10) Dean - 905
10) Mitch - 905

Crazy how we have two "M" storms from two years in a row making the list. Guess the M curse is a thing

[Pelicane]

This also makes Melissa the strongest TC of 2025 to date.

[IsabelaWeather]

There's a very real possibility that Melissa's minimum core pressure will be lower than Mitch's and Dean's; the significant of this is that future Atlantic hurricanes would need to have a core pressure of LESS THAN 905 MBAR to even crack the top 10 most intense in history.

And, assuming we continue to get storms like Dorian, Milton, or Melissa in future seasons, then I do believe there will come a point when the top 10 most intense Atlantic hurricane list will solely consist of sub-900 members.

Edit: confirmed.

Well, i mean, given enough time that is inevitable. 1780 was likely sub 900 but we werent able to measure until recently.

[CrazyC83]

Odd eyewall drop. Winds drop from 140 kt to 122 kt right above the surface, then pick up to 160+ kt by the 919mb level.

Also over 190 kt a few hundred feet above the surface. If that can penetrate down...

[Travorum]

NHC no longer forecasts any weakening before landfall, and has 150 kt for the next forecast point. (I believe that the "inland" and "over water" were labeled on the wrong lines.)

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 16.6N 78.5W 150 KT 175 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 17.5N 78.3W 150 KT 175 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 18.8N 77.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 20.7N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0000Z 23.0N 74.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 30/1200Z 25.8N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 29.8N 68.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 38.9N 56.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 47.5N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

It is labelled correctly, its just that the "inland" is over Cuba. The 12H position is S of Jamaica and the 24H position is N of Jamaica.

[zal0phus]

Is Melissa going to just clip Jamaica on the edge now? Curious how the NHC doesn't denote "inland" until Cuba. Still atrocious for Jamaica of course, but is there any hope of a non-direct hit?

[ScottNAtlanta]

The top 10 most intense storms now:

1) Wilma - 882
2) Gilbert - 888
3) 1935 Labor Day - 892
4) Milton - 895
4) Rita - 895
6) Allen - 899
7) Camille - 900
8) Katrina - 902
9) Melissa - 903
10) Dean - 905
10) Mitch - 905

Crazy how we have two "M" storms from two years in a row making the list. Guess the M curse is a thing

I told ya'll a couple of days ago I was moving the "I" curse to "M"

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1983006425027883036

[wx98]

The top 10 most intense storms now:

1) Wilma - 882
2) Gilbert - 888
3) 1935 Labor Day - 892
4) Milton - 895
4) Rita - 895
6) Allen - 899
7) Camille - 900
8) Katrina - 902
9) Melissa - 903
10) Dean - 905
10) Mitch - 905

Crazy how we have two "M" storms from two years in a row making the list. Guess the M curse is a thing

Weird that despite the “I” curse, there’s no I storms here and 3 M storms.

[NDG]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1983007678982128034

[cheezyWXguy]

My god, I step away for like an hour and a half and come back to see the best Haiyan impression I’ve ever seen an Atlantic hurricane do. Melissa may “only” be the 9th most intense, but this has to be the most elite looking hurricane I’ve ever seen in this basin. Even the likes of Wilma, Gilbert, and Milton didn’t stand this tall imo.

[wx98]

Is Melissa going to just clip Jamaica on the edge now? Curious how the NHC doesn't denote "inland" until Cuba. Still atrocious for Jamaica of course, but is there any hope of a non-direct hit?

The forecast mentions positions at the forecast time. There isn’t a forecast point on Jamaica, so it won’t say “inland” there. That doesn’t change the fact that the cone goes right over the island.

[ScottNAtlanta]

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