NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Pelicane]

This also makes Melissa the strongest TC of 2025 to date.

[IsabelaWeather]

There's a very real possibility that Melissa's minimum core pressure will be lower than Mitch's and Dean's; the significant of this is that future Atlantic hurricanes would need to have a core pressure of LESS THAN 905 MBAR to even crack the top 10 most intense in history.

And, assuming we continue to get storms like Dorian, Milton, or Melissa in future seasons, then I do believe there will come a point when the top 10 most intense Atlantic hurricane list will solely consist of sub-900 members.

Edit: confirmed.

Well, i mean, given enough time that is inevitable. 1780 was likely sub 900 but we werent able to measure until recently.

[CrazyC83]

Odd eyewall drop. Winds drop from 140 kt to 122 kt right above the surface, then pick up to 160+ kt by the 919mb level.

Also over 190 kt a few hundred feet above the surface. If that can penetrate down...

[Travorum]

NHC no longer forecasts any weakening before landfall, and has 150 kt for the next forecast point. (I believe that the "inland" and "over water" were labeled on the wrong lines.)

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 16.6N 78.5W 150 KT 175 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 17.5N 78.3W 150 KT 175 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 18.8N 77.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 20.7N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0000Z 23.0N 74.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 30/1200Z 25.8N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 29.8N 68.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 38.9N 56.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 47.5N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

It is labelled correctly, its just that the "inland" is over Cuba. The 12H position is S of Jamaica and the 24H position is N of Jamaica.

[zal0phus]

Is Melissa going to just clip Jamaica on the edge now? Curious how the NHC doesn't denote "inland" until Cuba. Still atrocious for Jamaica of course, but is there any hope of a non-direct hit?

[ScottNAtlanta]

The top 10 most intense storms now:

1) Wilma - 882
2) Gilbert - 888
3) 1935 Labor Day - 892
4) Milton - 895
4) Rita - 895
6) Allen - 899
7) Camille - 900
8) Katrina - 902
9) Melissa - 903
10) Dean - 905
10) Mitch - 905

Crazy how we have two "M" storms from two years in a row making the list. Guess the M curse is a thing

I told ya'll a couple of days ago I was moving the "I" curse to "M"

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1983006425027883036

[wx98]

The top 10 most intense storms now:

1) Wilma - 882
2) Gilbert - 888
3) 1935 Labor Day - 892
4) Milton - 895
4) Rita - 895
6) Allen - 899
7) Camille - 900
8) Katrina - 902
9) Melissa - 903
10) Dean - 905
10) Mitch - 905

Crazy how we have two "M" storms from two years in a row making the list. Guess the M curse is a thing

Weird that despite the “I” curse, there’s no I storms here and 3 M storms.

[NDG]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1983007678982128034

[cheezyWXguy]

My god, I step away for like an hour and a half and come back to see the best Haiyan impression I’ve ever seen an Atlantic hurricane do. Melissa may “only” be the 9th most intense, but this has to be the most elite looking hurricane I’ve ever seen in this basin. Even the likes of Wilma, Gilbert, and Milton didn’t stand this tall imo.

[wx98]

Is Melissa going to just clip Jamaica on the edge now? Curious how the NHC doesn't denote "inland" until Cuba. Still atrocious for Jamaica of course, but is there any hope of a non-direct hit?

The forecast mentions positions at the forecast time. There isn’t a forecast point on Jamaica, so it won’t say “inland” there. That doesn’t change the fact that the cone goes right over the island.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Almost at page 100

[Teban54]

The top 10 most intense storms now:

1) Wilma - 882
2) Gilbert - 888
3) 1935 Labor Day - 892
4) Milton - 895
4) Rita - 895
6) Allen - 899
7) Camille - 900
8) Katrina - 902
9) Melissa - 903
10) Dean - 905
10) Mitch - 905

Crazy how we have two "M" storms from two years in a row making the list. Guess the M curse is a thing

I told ya'll a couple of days ago I was moving the "I" curse to "M"

As I analyzed here earlier today, the M curse is actually more saliant during the most recent active streak (2016-2025) than the I curse. Five M names were retired (or almost certainly will) -- averaging one every other year -- while "only" three I names were:



Some more discussions in this comment.

[Jr0d]

Odd eyewall drop. Winds drop from 140 kt to 122 kt right above the surface, then pick up to 160+ kt by the 919mb level.

Also over 190 kt a few hundred feet above the surface. If that can penetrate down...

While the mountains of Jamaica will disrupt the eyewall, they are also high enough to see some of those 180kt+ winds if Melissa maintains the eyewall until landfall.

Not a good situation and I hope those in Jamaica are taking their final precautions before impact. I am also worried that some of these lesser experienced 'storm chasers' will put themselves in harm way in hopes of getting socual media clout.

[NDG]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1983007060062269768

[CrazyC83]

The top 10 most intense storms now:

1) Wilma - 882
2) Gilbert - 888
3) 1935 Labor Day - 892
4) Milton - 895
4) Rita - 895
6) Allen - 899
7) Camille - 900
8) Katrina - 902
9) Melissa - 903
10) Dean - 905
10) Mitch - 905

Crazy how we have two "M" storms from two years in a row making the list. Guess the M curse is a thing

Weird that despite the “I” curse, there’s no I storms here and 3 M storms.

Strongest of the "I" storms was Ivan at 910 mb, followed by Irma at 914 mb.

[Travorum]

Not that it really means anything practical for intensity when we have recon actively in the storm, but ADT Raw T# and Adj T# has hit the forbidden 8.6:

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 OCT 2025 Time : 024020 UTC
Lat : 16:35:24 N Lon : 78:32:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.3 / 878.5mb/179.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.3 8.6 8.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +19.3C Cloud Region Temp : -81.2C

[Nimbus]

Headed north now.
Will have to shift NNE before landfall or eye will pass directly over Montego Bay.
There is a southern coastal town that would take the strong eyewall in that scenario.

[Category5Kaiju]

Crazy how we have two "M" storms from two years in a row making the list. Guess the M curse is a thing

Weird that despite the “I” curse, there’s no I storms here and 3 M storms.

Strongest of the "I" storms was Ivan at 910 mb, followed by Irma at 914 mb.

"I"s are infamous for being destructive and strong (with several powerful members), but the "M"s are the true titans of the Atlantic.

[ScottNAtlanta]

THE M CURSE