Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

[HurricaneRyan]

Helene has indeed become a bad and devastating storm. Knowing now that Debby also caused more damage in Canada than the US, it will be interesting to see if it gets retired as well.

90L in the Atlantic will likely become Kirk, which means the system in the Western Caribbean will become Leslie. If Leslie becomes a bad storm, then we'll need a new L name.

We could potentially have up to four names retired next year, all original.

[CrazyC83]

Helene has indeed become a bad and devastating storm. Knowing now that Debby also caused more damage in Canada than the US, it will be interesting to see if it gets retired as well.

90L in the Atlantic will likely become Kirk, which means the system in the Western Caribbean will become Leslie. If Leslie becomes a bad storm, then we'll need a new L name.

We could potentially have up to four names retired next year, all original.

Not to mention what may lurk in the late season.

[Teban54]

July 2024 update. Beryl is assumed to be retired.

(Original - Retired - Retired twice - Retired 3 times - Never been used)

List 1 (next 2027) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 2 (next 2028) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 3 (next 2029) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 4 (2024/2030) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 5 (next 2025) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 6 (next 2026) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Auxiliary List - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Greek Alphabet (legacy) - α, β, γ, δ, ε, ζ, η, θ, ι



My comments:
[...]

While we didn't retire the last original I name (but got really close), we still got rid of another original name in Helene. This means List 4 is doing some serious catch-up in the last two iterations. It will now have at least 8 original names retired after this season, which is near average among all lists (9.2); whereas before 2018, it only had 4 names retired at all and was well behind other lists.

If the 30/80 behind Kirk becomes Leslie, there's a chance that it may become a strong MDR hurricane and track west enough to affect the Lesser Antilles, meaning a non-zero chance at retirement of another (nicely slotted) original name.

Afterwards, if there's more Caribbean mischief, 2024 still has a chance to retire another original name from Nadine, Oscar, Patty and Rafael, as long as it avoids Milton (which may possibly be used for the Carribean/Gulf AOI) and Sara.

[CrazyC83]

Now updated to October 2024. Helene and Milton are now assumed to be retired.

(Original - Retired - Retired twice - Retired 3 times - Never been used)

List 1 (next 2027) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 2 (next 2028) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 3 (next 2029) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 4 (2024/2030) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 5 (next 2025) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

List 6 (next 2026) - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Auxiliary List - A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T, V, W

Greek Alphabet (legacy) - α, β, γ, δ, ε, ζ, η, θ, ι



Isaac truly is the survivor, while all the other "I" names are third or fourth generation right now. Additionally, there are no third generation names on this list, although if Milton is the Gulf storm and can rapidly intensify (edit: did it ever!!!!), that is the only way that changes. Unless we get all the way to Sara, everything left is original.

List 5 next year is a mixed bag - remaining originals include Barry, Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, Jerry and Karen in the front half of the list. After that, it's largely replacements except for Pablo until very late (largely thanks to 1995).

[HurricaneRyan]

Just out of curiosity, with some inspiration from the Chinese zodiac symbols, I looked at which names got retired during the 12 year cycles.

Rat: Donna, Agnes, Cesar, Fran, Hortense, Gustav, Ike, Paloma, Laura, Eta, Iota
Bull: Carla, Hattie, Elena, Gloria, Ida
Tiger: Carmen, Fifi, Georges, Mitch, Igor, Tomas, Ian
Rabbit: Flora, Eloise, Floyd, Lenny, Irene
Dragon: Cleo, Dora, Hilda, Gilbert, Joan, Keith, Sandy
Snake: Betsy, Anita, Hugo, Allison, Iris, Michelle, Ingrid
Horse: Carol, Edna, Hazel, Inez, Greta, Diana, Klaus, Isidore, Lili
Ram: Connie, Diane, Ione, Janet, Beulah, David, Frederic, Bob, Isabel, Erika, Joaquin
Monkey: Allen, Andrew, Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne, Matthew, Otto
Rooster: Audrey, Camille, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, Wilma, Harvey, Irma, Maria, Nate
Dog: Celia, Florence, Michael
Pig: Alicia, Luis, Marilyn, Opal, Roxanne, Dean, Felix, Noel, Dorian

[AJC3]

Updated status of the original lists as of the end of the 2024 season. For retired names where you see more than one retired name starting with the same letter, the original retirees are boldfaced before the "/", with replacement names that have also been retired to the right.

For the bottom section, I also sorted the number of original retirees by letter, in the order of the lists that they were on.

Observations from the lists...

(1) There are no original "F" storms left.
(2) A "V" storm has yet to be retired.
(3) Surprisingly, only one original "E" storm has been retired, meaning the second (and only other) "E" storm to be retired was its replacement.
(4) An "I" storm has been retired from list 2 three times, the only letter/list having this distinction.
(5) The original "I" storm has been retired from 5 of 6 lists, and at least one replacement "I" storm has been retired in all 5 of those lists.
(6) If you include replacements, the numbers look like this: List 1 (11); List 2 (14); List 3 (12); List 4 (9); List 5 (14); List 6 (12)

Complete list of original names left from 1979 onward:

List 1 (14): Ana, Claudette, Henri, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda
Retired (7): Bob, David, Elena/Erika, Frederic/Fabian, Gloria, Isabel/Ida, Juan/Joaquin

List 2 (12): Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, Hermine, Karl, Lisa, Nicole, Paula, Richard, Shary, Virginie, Walter
Retired (9): Allen/Andrew, Charley, Frances/Fiona, Georges, Ivan/Igor/Ian, Jeanne, Mitch/Matthew, Otto, Tomas

List 3 (10): Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Jose, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince
Retired (11): Dennis, Floyd, Harvey, Irene/Irma, Katrina, Lenny, Maria, Nate, Rita, Stan, Wilma

List 4 (13): Alberto, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Isaac, Leslie, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Tony, Valerie, William
Retired (8): Beryl, Florence, Gilbert, Helene, Joan, Keith, Michael/Milton, Sandy

List 5 (11): Barry, Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, Jerry, Karen, Pablo, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy
Retired (10): Alicia/Allison, Dean/Dorian, Felix, Hugo, Iris/Ingrid, Luis, Marilyn/Michelle, Noel, Opal, Roxanne

List 6 (11): Arthur, Bertha, Edouard, Josephine, Marco, Nana, Omar, Rene, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
Retired (10): Cesar, Diana, Fran, Gustav, Hortense, Isidore/Ike, Klaus, Lili/Laura, Paloma, Sally

Retired Left
A (2) Allen, Alicia (4) Ana, Arlene, Alberto, Arthur
B (2) Bob, Beryl (4) Bonnie, Bret, Barry, Bertha
C (2) Charley, Cesar (4) Claudette, Cindy, Chris, Chantal
D (4) David, Dennis, Dean, Diana (2) Danielle, Debby
E (1) Elena (5) Earl, Emily, Ernesto, Erin, Edouard
F (6) Frederic, Frances, Floyd, Florence, Felix, Fran (0)
G (4) Gloria, Georges, Gilbert, Gustav (2) Gert, Gabrielle
H (4) Harvey, Helene, Hugo, Hortense (2) Henri, Hermine
I (5) Isabel, Ivan, Irene, Iris, Isidore (1) Isaac
J (3) Juan, Jeanne, Joan (3) Jose, Jerry, Josephine
K (3) Katrina, Keith, Klaus (3) Kate, Karl, Karen
L (3) Lenny, Luis, Lili (3) Larry, Lisa, Leslie
M (4) Mitch, Maria, Michael, Marilyn (2) Mindy, Marco
N (2) Nate, Noel (2) Nicholas, Nicole, Nadine, Nana
O (2) Otto, Opal (4) Odette, Ophelia, Oscar, Omar
P (1) Paloma (5) Peter, Paula, Philippe, Patty, Pablo
R (2) Rita, Roxanne (4) Rose, Richard, Rafael, Rene
S (3) Stan, Sandy, Sally (3) Sam, Shary, Sebastien
T (1) Tomas (5) Teresa, Tammy, Tony, Tanya, Teddy
V (0) (6) Victor, Virginie, Vince, Valerie, Van, Vicky
W (1) Wilma (5) Wanda, Walter, William, Wendy, Wilfred

[Category5Kaiju]

With the 2025 season coming soon, I figured to take a look at the names that will be used this season.

I highly doubt we're going to see a Beryl-like storm this year, so unless we get some highly destructive, early-season tropical storm/minimal hurricane or an unusually quiet June/July with a giant burst in August activity, I think Barry and Chantal will survive this season.

In terms of OG names, the more interesting ones I think will be Erin or Gabrielle. Respectively, it's been 10 and 17 years since the Atlantic last retired an E name and a G name, so one would think we would be overdue for one (interestingly, if just looking at major hurricanes, the last Atlantic E name that got retired happened in 1975, even before the conventional name scheme we use nowadays came into effect). In contrast, the last D name that got retired happened in 2018, F in 2022, H in 2024, and I in 2022, so much more recent. Will this year be the year that breaks the drought for E and/or G? Or not?

[CycloneSakura]

I think List 5 has a shot of getting all of its OGs out first, but generally speaking it will be very difficult to do. We may soon have to add Barry to that list, but that's another can of worms I'm not going to dive into.

[Category5Kaiju]

Well....looks like the second third-generation Atlantic name is going to get retired. List 5 joins List 2 in that regard.

So far this year, *unless in the rather unlikely and unprecedented event that Cape Verde interprets "Erin" as a significant disaster and requests for its retirement*, it looks like List 5's OG names will live for another day. We'll have to see what November holds and if we even ever reach Pablo or Sebastian.

Also, it's rather interesting to see that we now have 5 Atlantic names currently in use that were given to Category 5 storms that fell or will likely fall short of being retirement-worthy (Emily, Lorenzo, Lee, *Erin*, and Humberto). Had Karen not been detected, named, or whatever this year, then Melissa would've been Lorenzo. Yes, another Category 5 Lorenzo, except this time, it would've tremendously overshadowed the 2019 version. While it's more than likely that should any of those names get retired in a future season that they would be given to a storm of Category 4 intensity or lower....given recent storm behavior trends, you may never know. I'm willing to bet some money that at some point in the future, whether near or far, at least one of those 5 names will be given to another Category 5 hurricane that completely overshadows the original Category 5 hurricane that bore that name.

[Teban54]

I wanted to wait until Melissa exits the picture, but with its current intensity and destruction almost guaranteed, might as well post it now.

Atlantic retirements by naming lists

I've compiled the lists by CrazyC83 (with my edits earlier) and AJC3 into a new format:

Melissa is assumed to be retired, while Erin is not (discussions here).



My comments on 2025 and others:

• Melissa is almost destined to become the second 3rd-generation name to be retired, following Ian. Whether this shows an "M curse" will be discussed separately below.
• List 5 continues the trend of retiring at least one name every year (even though 2025 almost evaded any retirements until recently).
• For List 5 to knock out another original name in 2025, we need at least 3 more TCs and retire Pablo. Most likely, this would also tie the record of number of formations in November (three TCs). It's highly unlikely, but not impossible (see 2020).
• List 5 has the highest number of retired storms (15), but with several double or triple retirements reducing their efficiency. As a result, it still has more original names (11) than List 3 (10).
• List 4 used to be really slow in retirement, but 2024 retiring three names really helped. With 9 names retired (8 originals), it has almost caught up with other lists.

• "Efficiency" of retiring original names:
  
  • List 3 is the most efficient: 12 retirements covered 11 original names (92%), and only one was a 2nd-generation retirement. Second in place is List 4 (89%).
  • List 2 is the least efficient: 13 retirements only covered 8 original names (62%). Second in place is List 1 (64%).
• Retirements by letter, since 1979 (launch of the current naming system):
  
  • I has the most retirees (11 names), followed by F and M (8 names each).
  • Of these, F is the most efficient with all original names retired. In contrast, even though I has retired every 2nd-generation name, the original Isaac still remains. M is somewhat in-between, with Mindy and Marco remaining as original names.
  • Among the other letters, H also has notable efficiency: All 4 retired H names were from the original list.
  • E has been particularly slow at retirement given its common usage. Only one original name has been retired, albeit twice.

[Teban54]

Atlantic retirements by letter: Is the M curse real?

Here are all retired names regardless of naming lists, including those from before the current naming system.



Color thresholds explanation:

• 1954: The first year in which hurricane names were retired. (The use of human names started in the preceding year, in which no names warranted retirement.)
• 1979: The 6 modern male-female lists were introduced. Prior to this, only female names were used.
• 2000: The turn of the century, and as a soft midpoint between the active years of 1995-99 and 2003-05. (I admit this is somewhat arbitrary.)
• 2016: The start of the ongoing (almost) above-average streak, in terms of both seasonal activity and impacts. It also marked (or was close to) the end of several notable droughts: Cat 5s, US MH impacts, above-average seasonal ACE, etc.

In terms of the total number of retired names over all years, I names unsurprisingly stand out by far (13 names). While M is notable (8 names), it's technically not over-the-top: F, C and D have just as many or more retirements (10, 9, 8 each).

The fact that retired names are concentrated over I and M as notable "local maxima", even relative to adjacent letters, is very intriguing and ominous though:

• More I names have been retired (13) than H and J combined (7+5=12).
• As many M names have been retired (8) as L, N and O combined (4+2+2=8).

This obviously has no scientific basis and is likely just a coincidence. But it still makes you wonder: if I and M saw a lot of retirements simply due to their usage in primary and secondary peak seasons, then why is this not happening to their neighbors who are used just as much?


Another interesting pattern is retirement "patterns" in different eras:

• The "old-school" retirements between 1954-1978 clearly concentrated around C, the "original Curse". A whopping 7 C names were retired during this period, but only 2 more (Cesar and Charley) ever since.
• In the 80s and 90s, the most popular retirements shifted towards F/G/H. (Notable examples: Floyd, Gilbert, Hugo.) Satellites started being widely in use by this time, allowing better detection and naming.
• The 2000s and early 2010s firmly established the "I curse", retiring 8 I names -- one name every other year on average! At its height, 4 consecutive years (2001-04) had their I names retired. The nearby letters J and K also saw some popularity.
• Now enter the most recent active era (2016+). While early-season F/H/I storms remain devastating, the "M monsters" have really established themselves during late seasons, with 5 retirees (all but one in October). This time, M is the letter that retires one name every other year on average. More than half of retired M names were in 2016 and later.

The fact that local maxima are "sliding back" from C -> G -> I -> M might plausibly be related to the popular conjecture/stereotype that "we're naming more storms", thanks to better detection via satellite, ASCAT, etc.


I want to emphasize that this is not meant as a scientific discovery, nor a claim of a robust long-term trend. Correlation doesn't mean causation, and there's simply too much randomness in naming of tropical cyclones. Still, these stats are very interesting to look at.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

Thanks for your analysis. What is most striking to me about these lists is how there was never a storm past #10 (J) whose name warranted retirement before the new naming system with male names was created in 1979, but since then there have been 28 names past "J" retired.

[wwizard]

Thanks for your analysis. What is most striking to me about these lists is how there was never a storm past #10 (J) whose name warranted retirement before the new naming system with male names was created in 1979, but since then there have been 28 names past "J" retired.

Kinda hard to do when a storm past J was named in just 5 seasons between 1953-1978, a total of 9 named storms. Should have been more but a lot of storms still didn’t get a name back then and are simply listed as “unnamed”. I found 3 retired storms that should have been past J. In 1954 there were 7 unnamed storms including an unnamed cat 2 hurricane. Hazel was the storm that got retired (Carol and Edna retroactively), but that storm should have been named Norma. Janet was retired in ‘55 and that should have been named Katie. Then in ‘64, Hilda should have been Katy, or I guess another K name because Katy/Katie would have already been retired in ‘55. That’s only 3, but still.

Probably should be noted too that A was probably considered a curse before 2000. Allison is the only A storm to be retired in the 21st century. Same with C with Charley being the only retirement this century. Definitely been a pickup later in the alphabet since about 1995 with 27 retirements past J.

Since 1995 there’s been 34 names retired from A to J, 27 after J. Before 1995 there were 38 retired names from A-J and just 1 past J. As mentioned though, those numbers should actually be 35 and 4. Still that’s a huge difference.

We’re just in a place now where we see every inch of the ocean. Picking up a lot of weak early season storms we very likely used to miss so those early names aren’t getting retired as much as they used to. And the A storm that used to be a monster in August, is a weak June or preseason storm now and the strong August storm tends to be D and beyond. The meat of the season used to be E-J or so, now it’s J and beyond.

That’s why I think it might be a good idea to adopt the eastern hemispheres philosophy of starting next seasons names where you left off last season. For example, if Melissa is the last storm this season, then the 1st storm next year should be Nestor, not Arthur.

[CrazyC83]

Thanks for your analysis. What is most striking to me about these lists is how there was never a storm past #10 (J) whose name warranted retirement before the new naming system with male names was created in 1979, but since then there have been 28 names past "J" retired.

Many storms were not named or not detected in the old days, making it harder to get that far into the alphabet. If current rules existed, we'd have retired names deeper into the alphabet in the 1950s onward...

[CrazyC83]

If current naming rules were in place, the retirements from 1954 to 1970 would be:

Retired for same storm -- Retired for different storm that season -- Already retired in this scenario

1954: Florence, Hazel, Norma

1955: Brenda, Connie, Hilda, Janet

1956: NONE

1957: Bertha

1958: NONE

1959: NONE

1960: Ethel

1961: Carla, Inga

1962: NONE

1963: Helena

1964: Florence, Gladys, Katy

1965: Carol

1966: Judith

1967: Ginger

1968: NONE

1969: Debbie

1970: Celia

In most cases, it is unnamed storms that adjust the list order (although, in a few cases, it is due to genesis date changes with storms moves up or back). Also, in this scenario, Alice would not have been named twice in the same year, it is assumed it was identified in December (and would have been Patsy) so B in 1955 would be A.