EPAC: ELEVEN -E - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[AJC3]

Future KIko looks ready for prime time.

https://i.imgur.com/JY7GxL9.gif

The ironic thing with this system is that it's forecast to reach the CPAC, and Kiko actually sounds more like a name from the CPAC list rather than the EPAC (IMO).

[cycloneye]

Models are bullish for a CPAC hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Western East Pacific (EP93):
Recent satellite wind data indicate that the disturbance located
about 925 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to lack a well-defined low-level circulation.
However, shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
expected to form during the next day or so while moving westward at
around 10 mph across the western part of the eastern Pacific basin.
The system is likely to cross into the central Pacific basin by the
middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Well defined and robust circulation. Could've been classified over 24 hours ago. Deeper convection starting to persist.

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2025083100, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1211W, 25, 1009, DB

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Western East Pacific (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located about 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. If
these trends continue, a tropical depression is likely to develop
later tonight or on Sunday while it moves generally westward around
10 mph across the western part of the eastern Pacific basin. The
system is likely to cross into the central Pacific basin by the
middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Hurricane2022]

HWRF, HAFS-A and B are all showing a possible major doing a WSW dip and tracking over 28-27 waters during this run. Note that they show some strong shear briefly weakening 93E in about 80 - 90 hours from now, and restrengthening later on. I hope Kiko can bring some ACE and annular candy to our eyes.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 30 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 122.3W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1610 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES




Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 30 2025

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula have become better organized over the past 12 hours. A
0507 UTC ASCAT-C pass showed a well-defined low-level circulation
with peak winds near 25 kt. However, given the continued improvement
in the satellite presentation and higher subjective Dvorak current
intensity estimates of 2.5/35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, advisories
are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eleven-E with an initial
intensity of 30 kt.

The depression is moving westward near 8 kt, or 270/8 kt, steered by
a strong subtropical ridge situated to its north. This ridge is
forecast to remain in place throughout the 5-day period, maintaining
a general westward motion across the western part of the eastern
Pacific basin and into the central Pacific basin late this week. The
official forecast track is close to the consensus aids.

Environmental conditions of warm sea surface temperatures, moist
mid-level air, and low vertical wind shear support steady
strengthening during the next few days. The depression is expected
to become a tropical storm later today, and could reach hurricane
strength by around 60 hours (Tuesday). Thereafter, the system’s
track near the 26 C isotherm, along with the possibility of some
mid-level dry air entrainment, could limit further intensification
later in the week. The intensity forecast is near the middle to
higher end of the guidance envelope through midweek, then trends
closer to the consensus thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 14.4N 122.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 14.6N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 14.6N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 14.5N 126.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 14.3N 130.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 14.2N 132.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 14.3N 135.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 14.3N 140.1W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

[Kingarabian]

GFS has back to back runs showing this getting really close to the Big Island of Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

Euro also getting it pretty close as well. Some ensembles do show landfall from both models.

Looks like it will round the sub tropical ridge. Question is will the ridge build back once it begins the pronounced WNW turn. Hawaiian Islands are an extremely small target. This can easily go just north or just south of Hawaii.

[cycloneye]

A. 11E (NONAME)

B. 31/1200Z

C. 14.4N

D. 123.0W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/PRXY

H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS 3.0 BASED
ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 24 HOUR TREND. THE PT IS 3.0. THE FT IS BASED
ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MONAGHAN

[Kingarabian]

A. 11E (NONAME)

B. 31/1200Z

C. 14.4N

D. 123.0W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/PRXY

H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS 3.0 BASED
ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 24 HOUR TREND. THE PT IS 3.0. THE FT IS BASED
ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MONAGHAN

Agreed here. But the reason SAB is at 3.0 already is because they delayed classifying this for the past 36 hours.

[cycloneye]