NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion: Update= Made Landfall at 185 mph / 892 mbs

[CronkPSU]

Looks like she has reached her big peak, as both IR and Radar are showing strong hints of an EWRC.

https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1983018897637777660

Derek doesn't think so...

[blp]

Benchmark. Wilma was a beast.

[Travorum]

Melissa works her way up to be tied with Camille for 7th most intense Atlantic hurricane.

[CrazyC83]

The top 10 most intense storms now:

1) Wilma - 882
2) Gilbert - 888
3) 1935 Labor Day - 892
4) Milton - 895
4) Rita - 895
6) Allen - 899
7) Camille - 900
8) Katrina - 902
9) Melissa - 903
10) Dean - 905
10) Mitch - 905

Now here we are, with that dropsonde:

1) Wilma - 882
2) Gilbert - 888
3) 1935 Labor Day - 892
4) Milton - 895
4) Rita - 895
6) Allen - 899
7) Camille - 900
7) Melissa - 900
9) Katrina - 902
10) Dean - 905
10) Mitch - 905

[NDG]

It has passed Katrina!!!

[CrazyC83]

As far as intensity, I'd still go with 155 kt. The dropsonde from earlier lends itself to that, and haven't seen the flight-level winds rise too much more yet.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1983015050139820153



uhhh

Was thinking this would increase intensity as the trough approaches. You can see the northern part of the storm is beginning to vent northward now. Will improve outflow.

[got ants?]

https://i.imgur.com/aNGOkJf.png https://i.imgur.com/G7rDKGe.png https://i.imgur.com/21uNj8K.png https://i.imgur.com/n1XxJo7.png https://i.imgur.com/1IYwggc.png

https://roiapi.dapiya.top/roi/page

What more does it need to be, ti be 'annular"?

[Sciencerocks]

[Ptarmigan]

It has passed Katrina!!!

At this point, it could eclipse Allen.

[Owasso]

161kt in NE eyewall Dropsonde

[cheezyWXguy]

Benchmark. Wilma was a beast.

https://i.ibb.co/jPS5yG6K/IEQe-XHUmkg4-x-Y4-Bplh-M9-Rmiq-SXY3acg-Wv-SUXcjbb-YAz-PK9-ZZAe-ISZax-Hmk-Kn-S2-ELFsb-Ddak-CMo-Ak-Sd.jpg

By winds and pressure, agreed. By appearance I think Melissa wins. This is Wilma in the same IR color scale TT uses

[CrazyC83]

161kt in NE eyewall Dropsonde

I'd consider that legit personally with this satellite signature. I'd issue a TCU with a 160 kt intensity.

[Fancy1002]

I’m hearing people say 161 kt at the surface and 899 Millibar, can anyone confirm that?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/8223/xwIV2B.gif

Last few frames show it expanding in size.

[Owasso]

VDM

[CrazyC83]

I’m hearing people say 161 kt at the surface and 899 Millibar, can anyone confirm that?

An eyewall dropsonde had surface winds of 161 kt, and a pressure in the eye calculated at 900 mb (902 mb / 22 kt of surface winds).

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.imgur.com/aNGOkJf.png https://i.imgur.com/G7rDKGe.png https://i.imgur.com/21uNj8K.png https://i.imgur.com/n1XxJo7.png https://i.imgur.com/1IYwggc.png

https://roiapi.dapiya.top/roi/page

What more does it need to be, ti be 'annular"?

A convective structure with virtually no outer banding, just a donut core. Melissa certainly has a donut core, but outer banding is much too prominent. More likely to see a structure like that in the open Atlantic than the Caribbean. See Isabel ‘03 as the textbook example.

[Stormgodess]

Can we expect an increase in storm surge forcasts for Mellisa as she strengthens? I realize topography plays a huge role, but I can't help but remember Katrina's 20ft + surge in Mississippi and wonder if 13ft for Melissa is lacking?

[Fancy1002]

I’m hearing people say 161 kt at the surface and 899 Millibar, can anyone confirm that?

An eyewall dropsonde had surface winds of 161 kt, and a pressure in the eye calculated at 900 mb (902 mb / 22 kt of surface winds).

From what I am seeing, it’s 899.8, which yes is rounded up to 900, but you could still consider sub 900 technically.