NATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Teban54]

Looks like we've had a lot of WPAC-style genesis this year, with broad waves coalescing into TCs while maintaining a large footprint. The wave that became Gabrielle looked similar, though conditions had already deteriorated by the time Gabrielle formed.

[abajan]

12z Best Track:

AL, 95, 2025100712, , BEST, 0, 111N, 430W, 30, 1008, LO...

Close but no cigar (at least, not yet).

[wxman57]

Scatterometer hit (finally) at 0930Z indicated a closed circulation and some 35kt wind. Likely already a TS. Should recurve east of the islands.

[kevin]

With that pass we might go straight to TS Jerry at 11am.

[tropicwatch]

It needs to start gaining some latitude if it going to miss the islands. Some of the forecast Models are trending towards the islands.

[Subtrop]

AL, 10, 2025100712, , BEST, 0, 113N, 438W, 40, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 90, 0, 0, 1012, 130, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JERRY, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029, TRANSITIONED, alB52025 to al102025,

[kevin]

AL, 10, 2025100712, , BEST, 0, 113N, 438W, 40, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 90, 0, 0, 1012, 130, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JERRY, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029, TRANSITIONED, alB52025 to al102025,

Welcome TS Jerry:

[zzzh]

ASCAT does not show a closed circulation

[Subtrop]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry (formerly AL95), located over the central tropical Atlantic, at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).

[zzzh]

https://i.imgur.com/FT9itG4.png
ASCAT does not show a closed circulation

A more detailed version.

[hipshot]

https://i.imgur.com/FT9itG4.png
ASCAT does not show a closed circulation

https://i.imgur.com/w3UY82f.png
A more detailed version.

I'm not sure what your definition of "closed" is but it sure looked like it to me on that ASCAT

[tropicwatch]

https://i.imgur.com/FT9itG4.png
ASCAT does not show a closed circulation

https://i.imgur.com/w3UY82f.png
A more detailed version.

I'm not sure what your definition of "closed" is but it sure looked like it to me on that ASCAT

The southwest part of it is questionable.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

https://i.imgur.com/FT9itG4.png
ASCAT does not show a closed circulation

https://i.imgur.com/w3UY82f.png
A more detailed version.

I'm not sure what your definition of "closed" is but it sure looked like it to me on that ASCAT

There are no westerly winds.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

In the cone again - I think that's five times this season?

[kevin]

And as my third post, a mandatory update of this list: the most aggressive first advisories based on NHC advisories since 1998 (of which the 1998 - 2002 advisories only went to +72 hrs). At the end of the name I have added the verified peak intensity in kt for each storm.

120 kt
2023 - Lee (145)

105 kt
2024 - Kirk (130)
2023 - Nigel (85)

100 kt
2025 - Erin (140)
2021 - Sam (135)
2010 - Tomas (85)

95 kt
2025 - Humberto (140)
2024 - Milton (155)
2024 - Helene (120)
2024 - Ernesto (85)
2022 - Ian (140)
2021 - Ida (130)
2020 - Iota (135)
2019 - Lorenzo (140)
2012 - Isaac (70)
2010 - Danielle (115)
2005 - Philippe (70)
2004 - Karl (110)

90 kt
2024 - Beryl (145)
2021 - Larry (110)
2017 - Jose (135)
2016 - Matthew (145)
2009 - Bill (115)
2007 - Dean (150)

85 kt
2020 - Delta (120)
2015 - Danny (110)
2014 - Gonzalo (125)
2011 - Katia (120)
2010 - Igor (135)
2010 - Earl (125)
2006 - Helene (105)
2005 - Wilma (160)

80 kt
2025 - Jerry (-)
2024 - Leslie (90)
2022 - Danielle (75)
2020 - Teddy (120)
2019 - Jerry (90)
2017 - Maria (150)
2017 - Irma (155)
2016 - Gaston (105)
2012 - Leslie (70)
2005 - Rita (155)
2004 - Earl (45)
1999 - Emily (45)

[hipshot]

https://i.imgur.com/w3UY82f.png
A more detailed version.

I'm not sure what your definition of "closed" is but it sure looked like it to me on that ASCAT

The southwest part of it is questionable.

Yeah, I'll give you that but not for long I suspect. This think could be huge and I agree with another poster that Jerry needs to start
towards the NW soon or the islands could be in for a heck of a storm.

[Teban54]

And as my third post, a mandatory update of this list: the most aggressive first advisories based on NHC advisories since 1998 (of which the 1998 - 2002 advisories only went to +72 hrs). At the end of the name I have added the verified peak intensity in kt for each storm.

[...]

FYI, I've put this list in a dedicated Talkin' Tropics thread, together with some improvements (color coding, 5-day vs. peak intensity, error fixes).

Interestingly, this is the second time that the name Jerry appeared on the list -- in the same section as the previous Jerry in 2019 (80 kts forecast). Four other names have appeared on this list twice: Danielle, Earl, Helene and Leslie.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1975577558038245421

[Teban54]

Jerry 2025's projected track and intensity (officially) are both eerily similar to the last Jerry, in 2019.

This is not the first time that it happened this season: Humberto 2025 also had similarities in track with Humberto 2019, but it eventually overperformed by 2 categories. Will Jerry do the same?

[CyclonicFury]

It's interesting how we have seen more October MDR storms in recent years. Hurricane Tammy in 2023, Hurricanes Kirk and Leslie last year, and now Jerry this year. October wasn't historically considered part of CV season, but in recent years it has been.