ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[Fancy1002]

Considering how little distance Erin has covered in the last 24 hours, do you think upwelling might be a reason why she’s having such a hard time getting her act back together, aside from the eye wall replacement cycle

[Fancy1002]

Is it just me or does it look like as of 1:00 a.m. this morning that the eye of hurricane Erin is starting to move or wobble and a due Westerly direction again

I think so, but I doubt it will last for long.

[869MB]

Is it just me or does it look like as of 1:00 a.m. this morning that the eye of hurricane Erin is starting to move or wobble and a due Westerly direction again

No it’s not you, Erin has not gained the latitude I was expecting it to gain by this point in time tonight. It appears to be taking the ICON route through the Atlantic Basin so far. Plus it’s getting uncomfortably close to some of the Bahama islands in my humble opinion. If it’s going to make that much anticipated turn to the north, right now would be a great time to do so.

[Fancy1002]

Is it just me or does it look like as of 1:00 a.m. this morning that the eye of hurricane Erin is starting to move or wobble and a due Westerly direction again

No it’s not you, Erin has not gained the latitude I was expecting it to gain by this point in time tonight. It appears to be taking the ICON route through the Atlantic Basin so far. Plus it’s getting uncomfortably close to some of the Bahama islands in my humble opinion. If it’s going to make that much anticipated turn to the north, right now would be a great time to do so.

I know it was expected to move a bit slowly while it was taking the northwest turn, but I didn’t expect for it to move this little in over 24-36 hours.

[Fancy1002]

I think we’re gonna wake up to something really nice, just hope it’s not too far west. If it’s gonna make another run at cat five, it has to do it today.

[Fancy1002]

OK, it’s 2 o’clock, I think she might be starting to turn more northward, or I’m just seeing things so I’m going to bed.

[REDHurricane]

Is it just me or does it look like as of 1:00 a.m. this morning that the eye of hurricane Erin is starting to move or wobble and a due Westerly direction again

No it’s not you, Erin has not gained the latitude I was expecting it to gain by this point in time tonight. It appears to be taking the ICON route through the Atlantic Basin so far. Plus it’s getting uncomfortably close to some of the Bahama islands in my humble opinion. If it’s going to make that much anticipated turn to the north, right now would be a great time to do so.

Too soon to say for sure but this is looking like it'll be another resounding victory for the almighty ICON, the only model that predicted anything in the ballpark of the 915mb intensity we saw yesterday and the only model that's consistently forecast a track this far to the west for ~4 days now. At this point I'm honestly starting to trust ICON more than either of the main 2 global models, so I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a secondary sub-920mb peak tomorrow or Tuesday as Erin reaches the 30ºC+ rocket fuel zone to its north