ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[Fancy1002]

Is it just me or does it look like as of 1:00 a.m. this morning that the eye of hurricane Erin is starting to move or wobble and a due Westerly direction again

I think so, but I doubt it will last for long.

[869MB]

Is it just me or does it look like as of 1:00 a.m. this morning that the eye of hurricane Erin is starting to move or wobble and a due Westerly direction again

No it’s not you, Erin has not gained the latitude I was expecting it to gain by this point in time tonight. It appears to be taking the ICON route through the Atlantic Basin so far. Plus it’s getting uncomfortably close to some of the Bahama islands in my humble opinion. If it’s going to make that much anticipated turn to the north, right now would be a great time to do so.

[Fancy1002]

Is it just me or does it look like as of 1:00 a.m. this morning that the eye of hurricane Erin is starting to move or wobble and a due Westerly direction again

No it’s not you, Erin has not gained the latitude I was expecting it to gain by this point in time tonight. It appears to be taking the ICON route through the Atlantic Basin so far. Plus it’s getting uncomfortably close to some of the Bahama islands in my humble opinion. If it’s going to make that much anticipated turn to the north, right now would be a great time to do so.

I know it was expected to move a bit slowly while it was taking the northwest turn, but I didn’t expect for it to move this little in over 24-36 hours.

[Fancy1002]

I think we’re gonna wake up to something really nice, just hope it’s not too far west. If it’s gonna make another run at cat five, it has to do it today.

[Fancy1002]

OK, it’s 2 o’clock, I think she might be starting to turn more northward, or I’m just seeing things so I’m going to bed.

[REDHurricane]

Is it just me or does it look like as of 1:00 a.m. this morning that the eye of hurricane Erin is starting to move or wobble and a due Westerly direction again

No it’s not you, Erin has not gained the latitude I was expecting it to gain by this point in time tonight. It appears to be taking the ICON route through the Atlantic Basin so far. Plus it’s getting uncomfortably close to some of the Bahama islands in my humble opinion. If it’s going to make that much anticipated turn to the north, right now would be a great time to do so.

Too soon to say for sure but this is looking like it'll be another resounding victory for the almighty ICON, the only model that predicted anything in the ballpark of the 915mb intensity we saw yesterday and the only model that's consistently forecast a track this far to the west for ~4 days now. At this point I'm honestly starting to trust ICON more than either of the main 2 global models, so I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a secondary sub-920mb peak tomorrow or Tuesday as Erin reaches the 30ºC+ rocket fuel zone to its north

[GCANE]

About 25 miles south of forecast track judging from IR satellite.
Really building a strong CDO from the fast-rotating eyewall towers.

[kevin]

Raw T# back to 6.9. Were it not for an increase in shear I'd be quite confident that Erin would make another run at 135 - 140 kt. But how much impact shear will have is always a bit of a wild card so we'll see.

[abajan]

6Z Best Track:

AL, 05, 2025081806, , BEST, 0, 225N, 699W, 115, 945, HU...

I imagine Erin has strengthened since then and the MSW could be as high as 140 mph in the next advisory due less than 30 minutes from now. But we'll see.

EDIT: Actually, the advisory has already been published and there's been no increase in the MSW since the last advisory. In addition to the aforementioned possibility of upwelling, Erin's expanding wind field is contributing to the non-increase in MSW, due to the law of conservation of momentum,.

[Cachondo23]

Turks and Caicos could be getting some hurricane gusts right now.

[kevin]

Raw T# now 7.0 and the average eye temp is approaching positive values again. Very curious what recon is gonna find.

[Woofde]

What an absolute monster of an eye, its hard to imagine another EWRC happening now. I can't wait to see the sunrise picture of this beast.

[kevin]

Recon already finding 50+ kt surface winds (55+ kt FL winds) 120 miles from the center and 65+ kt surface winds (72+ kt FL winds) 95 miles from the center. Erin's wind field is, as expected, much larger than a few days ago.

[BobHarlem]

Tropical Storm Warnings are now up for the Central Bahamas.

Getting more massive:


map with satellite photo vs actual track
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view ... =crosshair

Bahamas radar appears to be down.

[kevin]

NOAA2 found a min. extrapolated surface pressure of 935.6 mb with 14 kt winds nearby, which translates to 934/935 mb. Maximum FL winds are 118 kt so the pass would support 105-110 kt and 934-935 mb. Could be that higher winds are elsewhere in the system or that the hurricane is still cleaning up it structure a bit before it can translate to higher winds.

[Woofde]

Extrapolated pressures are ~935mb, it's done some slow deepening.

[Woofde]

Sunrise.

[GCANE]

Kermit measures 935mb extrap

[kevin]

Dropsonde in the eywall found 125 kt instantaneous winds which at-sea translates to 113 kt 1-minute sustained winds. Combined with the dropsonde that's sufficient for 935mb/115kt. Might be even stronger in terms of wind elsewhere in the storm (or, if not, it will be soon).

[weeniepatrol]

934.5mb lowest xtrap