ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1501 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:01 pm

AF306 is not even close to the eyewall, but it has 65-knot SMFR and 981.4 mb Extrapolated pressure and Fiona has a somewhat strong pressure gradient.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1502 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:14 pm

First pass: 930.6 mb Extrapolated
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1503 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:38 pm

The eye drop sucked. It’s completely unusable and doesn’t show anything below the 854mb level.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1504 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:40 pm

aspen wrote:The eye drop sucked. It’s completely unusable and doesn’t show anything below the 854mb level.

The SW Eyewall drop does give us a good hint, the surface is at 936 mb with 61 knots of wind.

EDIT: There is also the VDM.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1505 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:12 pm

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1506 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:13 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
aspen wrote:The eye drop sucked. It’s completely unusable and doesn’t show anything below the 854mb level.

The SW Eyewall drop does give us a good hint, the surface is at 936 mb with 61 knots of wind.

EDIT: There is also the VDM.


VDM shows 932 mb, Fiona is still deepening.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1507 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:46 pm

The extrapolated pressure is up this pass. I think Fiona peaked in the upper 920s earlier in the afternoon, around the 18z advisory. I’d go with 928-929/120 for an 18z BT revision based on the much clearer eye and smoother CDO, and the pressure rising a few mbar between these passes.

Also it seems like they’re going to avoid the SE quadrant, which has had the highest winds during the last few flights.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1508 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:54 pm

I agree that it probably peaked at 18Z with 120 kt, since the current data supports 115 kt (given the sparse coverage). As far as pressure then, I would have also said 928 mb.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1509 Postby HurricaneBelle » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:43 pm

As Fiona approaches Bermuda, here's a great page with automatically-updated observations on the island:

http://weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?na ... AWOS&user=

Right now stations are reporting winds in the 40-50 kt range.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1510 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:52 pm

A shame the Bermuda radar is down right now.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1511 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:58 pm

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1512 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:18 pm

NHC showing Cat 2 intensity at landfall on Nova Scotia. This could rival Juan in intensity, but the issue is that Fiona is much bigger.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1513 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:24 pm

HurricaneBelle wrote:As Fiona approaches Bermuda, here's a great page with automatically-updated observations on the island:

http://weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?na ... AWOS&user=

Right now stations are reporting winds in the 40-50 kt range.


Many of the stations are elevated so they aren't representative of Fiona's true intensity, but they are representative of the locations where many people live.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1514 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:28 pm

galaxy401 wrote:NHC showing Cat 2 intensity at landfall on Nova Scotia. This could rival Juan in intensity, but the issue is that Fiona is much bigger.


The storm surge and waves will far exceed Juan since the size will be many orders of magnitude larger. That is always a poor comparison, since Juan was unique for Nova Scotia in that it was a very tropical system and concentrated its impacts in a modest area (i.e., the Halifax metro and northward) with a solid eye and eyewall.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1515 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:36 pm

Fiona is one huge hurricane. It might get larger than even sandy.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1516 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:40 pm

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1517 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:48 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:NHC showing Cat 2 intensity at landfall on Nova Scotia. This could rival Juan in intensity, but the issue is that Fiona is much bigger.


The storm surge and waves will far exceed Juan since the size will be many orders of magnitude larger. That is always a poor comparison, since Juan was unique for Nova Scotia in that it was a very tropical system and concentrated its impacts in a modest area (i.e., the Halifax metro and northward) with a solid eye and eyewall.


This is true. Outside of Central Nova Scotia and (to a much lesser extent) Prince Edward Island, Juan barely had any impact on the rest of the region due to its Andrew-like size.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1518 Postby sikkar » Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:38 am

Holding steady.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1519 Postby tomatkins » Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:57 am

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:NHC showing Cat 2 intensity at landfall on Nova Scotia. This could rival Juan in intensity, but the issue is that Fiona is much bigger.


The storm surge and waves will far exceed Juan since the size will be many orders of magnitude larger. That is always a poor comparison, since Juan was unique for Nova Scotia in that it was a very tropical system and concentrated its impacts in a modest area (i.e., the Halifax metro and northward) with a solid eye and eyewall.


This is true. Outside of Central Nova Scotia and (to a much lesser extent) Prince Edward Island, Juan barely had any impact on the rest of the region due to its Andrew-like size.

The good news is at least it will likely come ashore somewhat east of Halifax , sparing it some. A place like Louisbourg though is gonna have a rough day.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1520 Postby shah83 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:23 am

Prince Edward's Island will have the roughest day, relatively speaking.
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