ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

AF306 is not even close to the eyewall, but it has 65-knot SMFR and 981.4 mb Extrapolated pressure and Fiona has a somewhat strong pressure gradient.

[Iceresistance]

First pass: 930.6 mb Extrapolated

[aspen]

The eye drop sucked. It’s completely unusable and doesn’t show anything below the 854mb level.

[Iceresistance]

The eye drop sucked. It’s completely unusable and doesn’t show anything below the 854mb level.

The SW Eyewall drop does give us a good hint, the surface is at 936 mb with 61 knots of wind.

EDIT: There is also the VDM.

[Sciencerocks]

[Iceresistance]

The eye drop sucked. It’s completely unusable and doesn’t show anything below the 854mb level.

The SW Eyewall drop does give us a good hint, the surface is at 936 mb with 61 knots of wind.

EDIT: There is also the VDM.

VDM shows 932 mb, Fiona is still deepening.

[aspen]

The extrapolated pressure is up this pass. I think Fiona peaked in the upper 920s earlier in the afternoon, around the 18z advisory. I’d go with 928-929/120 for an 18z BT revision based on the much clearer eye and smoother CDO, and the pressure rising a few mbar between these passes.

Also it seems like they’re going to avoid the SE quadrant, which has had the highest winds during the last few flights.

[CrazyC83]

I agree that it probably peaked at 18Z with 120 kt, since the current data supports 115 kt (given the sparse coverage). As far as pressure then, I would have also said 928 mb.

[HurricaneBelle]

As Fiona approaches Bermuda, here's a great page with automatically-updated observations on the island:

http://weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?na ... AWOS&user=

Right now stations are reporting winds in the 40-50 kt range.

[Kazmit]

A shame the Bermuda radar is down right now.

[Sciencerocks]

[galaxy401]

NHC showing Cat 2 intensity at landfall on Nova Scotia. This could rival Juan in intensity, but the issue is that Fiona is much bigger.

[CrazyC83]

As Fiona approaches Bermuda, here's a great page with automatically-updated observations on the island:

http://weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?na ... AWOS&user=

Right now stations are reporting winds in the 40-50 kt range.

Many of the stations are elevated so they aren't representative of Fiona's true intensity, but they are representative of the locations where many people live.

[CrazyC83]

NHC showing Cat 2 intensity at landfall on Nova Scotia. This could rival Juan in intensity, but the issue is that Fiona is much bigger.

The storm surge and waves will far exceed Juan since the size will be many orders of magnitude larger. That is always a poor comparison, since Juan was unique for Nova Scotia in that it was a very tropical system and concentrated its impacts in a modest area (i.e., the Halifax metro and northward) with a solid eye and eyewall.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Fiona is one huge hurricane. It might get larger than even sandy.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

NHC showing Cat 2 intensity at landfall on Nova Scotia. This could rival Juan in intensity, but the issue is that Fiona is much bigger.

The storm surge and waves will far exceed Juan since the size will be many orders of magnitude larger. That is always a poor comparison, since Juan was unique for Nova Scotia in that it was a very tropical system and concentrated its impacts in a modest area (i.e., the Halifax metro and northward) with a solid eye and eyewall.

This is true. Outside of Central Nova Scotia and (to a much lesser extent) Prince Edward Island, Juan barely had any impact on the rest of the region due to its Andrew-like size.

[sikkar]

Holding steady.

[tomatkins]

NHC showing Cat 2 intensity at landfall on Nova Scotia. This could rival Juan in intensity, but the issue is that Fiona is much bigger.

The storm surge and waves will far exceed Juan since the size will be many orders of magnitude larger. That is always a poor comparison, since Juan was unique for Nova Scotia in that it was a very tropical system and concentrated its impacts in a modest area (i.e., the Halifax metro and northward) with a solid eye and eyewall.

This is true. Outside of Central Nova Scotia and (to a much lesser extent) Prince Edward Island, Juan barely had any impact on the rest of the region due to its Andrew-like size.

The good news is at least it will likely come ashore somewhat east of Halifax , sparing it some. A place like Louisbourg though is gonna have a rough day.

[shah83]

Prince Edward's Island will have the roughest day, relatively speaking.