Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[Coredesat]

Odds on TS Henriette (as a low pressure system) blocking a Northwestward course for Felix and forcing a Northeastward one?

Slim to none. Save your money.

[Zardoz]

I can't believe what I'm reading after signing back on.

Lots of posts like this one!

Same for me. Felix was a Cat 3, I ran a few errands and cleaned off the patio, checked this thread, and it was a Cat 5.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow. Wonder when Felix will stop strengthening before he gets an ERC. I'll say 175 miles per hour winds.

Who knows where he peaked. But data on the recon supported 150-155 knot if not more at the surface. Lets see if Felix can remain stable so the next recon can get a good check on his strength.

[RDTF]

Odds on TS Henriette (as a low pressure system) blocking a Northwestward course for Felix and forcing a Northeastward one?

Slim to none. Save your money.

thanks

[PhillyWX]

See my post in the Felix Global Models thread. I won't post the same images here, but I think that the NW turn the models have been indicating over the Yucatan was due to the GFS's spurious "hurricane" it was developing east of Florida Tue-Thu. This resulted in a weakened ridge across the northern Gulf and the NW turn by the GFS and several major consensus models. The NOGAPS taking Felix through the FL straights didn't help the consensus models. NHC likes to stay close to the CONU (consensus model) and the CONU now moves Felix across the southern BoC (south of 20N). That's a good 100 miles or more south of the previous runs. I've been saying that the European hit Dean perfectly and has been right-on with Felix up to now. It has been taking Felix into Nicaragua from day one and it may be right. Let's hope the southward model trend continues. We don't want two landfalls in Mexico.

When I look at the ECMWF website it shows a Belize landfall and a scraping of the storm along the north coast of Honduras. I'm not questioning the concept of a more southern track, my track is pretty close to the one you and Derek are forecasting and speculating about. I'm just curious how the graphics you have posted and the graphics on the EURO website are showing a larger spread.

[Zardoz]

One for the graphics archive:

[Category 5]

11 pm advisory still not out yet.

It's still early. Give it about 20 minutes.

[MGC]

Cloud tops has slightly warmed. Likely at peak intensity for now. Headed slightly N of due West. Reminds me of watching Wilma go crazy a couple of years ago. Wilma ruined my trip to Key West and it looks like Felix is going to ruin my cruise to Honduras and Belize later this year......MGC

[wxman57]

NHC likes to follow the CONU, a consensus model, quite closely. Here's the 00Z CONU, let's see if the NHC shifts Felix's track southward a good bit:

[Vortex]

for those in S.Fl we may get an incredible sunset Monday evening if the outflow reaches this far north...I remember Allen and Gilbert as having some of the most incredible sunset I've ever seen in southern florida...

[Sanibel]

I was just about to post the same thing. Felix looks south to me with a clip of Honduras. But it is still on the trop points. Too early to say.

[wxman57]

the CONU has it going too south to be unrealistic.

The CONU is what is called a "consensus" model, combining the forecast output from at least two of the following models -- GFDL, GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and GFDN. The hurricane forecasters at the NHC (National Hurricane Center) analyze the forecast plots from at least 2 of the 5 models listed above and decide if any of them appear to have serious errors. If so, then the model (or models) with the errors is removed from the consensus. Forecast positions are obtained by a simple addition of the latitudes/longitudes forecast and dividing by the number of models used.

Often, a consensus of the various models yields a better track than any one model. In this case, the CONU is fairly close to the European model (though a bit north), and the ECMWF has been superior to any other model with Felix's track over the past 5 days (before it even developed).

[ConvergenceZone]

this might be pushed into the pacific ocean before all is said and done...

[Sanibel]

GFDN was right on the nose with Dean's landfall. What is GFDN saying for Felix?

[Normandy]

Well, considering that Felix is seemingly going to hit the next NHC forecast point head on, I see no reason for them to adjust the track southward even if the CONU shifted south. It would have to take a bend westward to hit Nicaragua.

[Cape Verde]

NHC likes to follow the CONU, a consensus model, quite closely. Here's the 00Z CONU, let's see if the NHC shifts Felix's track southward a good bit:

That might be the best track we could hope for that trim Felix's sails and cause the least damage for a storm of this size. Interaction with land always hurts the storm; it's just a question of how much.

Running along the shore is certainly not great for seaside residents, but it's likely to weaken it significantly.

[artist]

wxman - that would be even worse for Roatan, right? Doesn't it put them on the worse side of the storm?

[wxman57]

wxman - that would be even worse for Roatan, right? Doesn't it put them on the worse side of the storm?

Wouldn't be good for NE Honduras, Roatan, and Belize.

[RDTF]

NHC likes to follow the CONU, a consensus model, quite closely. Here's the 00Z CONU, let's see if the NHC shifts Felix's track southward a good bit:

That might be the best track we could hope for that trim Felix's sails and cause the least damage for a storm of this size. Interaction with land always hurts the storm; it's just a question of how much.

Running along the shore is certainly not great for seaside residents, but it's likely to weaken it significantly.

I'd hate to see La Ceiba destroyed

[Extremeweatherguy]

The CONU has only shifted south just recently. Earlier today it was much further north. I would like to see this become a trend for at least a few more model run times before buying into it.