RDTF wrote:Odds on TS Henriette (as a low pressure system) blocking a Northwestward course for Felix and forcing a Northeastward one?
Slim to none. Save your money.

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RDTF wrote:Odds on TS Henriette (as a low pressure system) blocking a Northwestward course for Felix and forcing a Northeastward one?
Sanibel wrote:I can't believe what I'm reading after signing back on.
altestic wrote:Wow. Wonder when Felix will stop strengthening before he gets an ERC. I'll say 175 miles per hour winds.
Coredesat wrote:RDTF wrote:Odds on TS Henriette (as a low pressure system) blocking a Northwestward course for Felix and forcing a Northeastward one?
Slim to none. Save your money.
wxman57 wrote:See my post in the Felix Global Models thread. I won't post the same images here, but I think that the NW turn the models have been indicating over the Yucatan was due to the GFS's spurious "hurricane" it was developing east of Florida Tue-Thu. This resulted in a weakened ridge across the northern Gulf and the NW turn by the GFS and several major consensus models. The NOGAPS taking Felix through the FL straights didn't help the consensus models. NHC likes to stay close to the CONU (consensus model) and the CONU now moves Felix across the southern BoC (south of 20N). That's a good 100 miles or more south of the previous runs. I've been saying that the European hit Dean perfectly and has been right-on with Felix up to now. It has been taking Felix into Nicaragua from day one and it may be right. Let's hope the southward model trend continues. We don't want two landfalls in Mexico.
altestic wrote:11 pm advisory still not out yet.
altestic wrote:the CONU has it going too south to be unrealistic.
wxman57 wrote:NHC likes to follow the CONU, a consensus model, quite closely. Here's the 00Z CONU, let's see if the NHC shifts Felix's track southward a good bit:
artist wrote:wxman - that would be even worse for Roatan, right? Doesn't it put them on the worse side of the storm?
Cape Verde wrote:wxman57 wrote:NHC likes to follow the CONU, a consensus model, quite closely. Here's the 00Z CONU, let's see if the NHC shifts Felix's track southward a good bit:
That might be the best track we could hope for that trim Felix's sails and cause the least damage for a storm of this size. Interaction with land always hurts the storm; it's just a question of how much.
Running along the shore is certainly not great for seaside residents, but it's likely to weaken it significantly.
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