Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[Johnny]

After watching this video, the JB model confidently says where this sytem will go.


http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?collection=weather&category=hurricaneprediction07&video=20070918tropicsPenStoneJB

[Jagno]

After watching this video, the JB model confidently says where this sytem will go.


http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-dem ... PenStoneJB

Hmmmmmmmmm, error message

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't know the answer to my question, guys. I'm trying to find out what track the NHC uses for the SHIP and DSHP guidance when there is no NHC track. I would think that the decision may be flexible. What are they using for the 00Z tonight runs? The reason I'd like to know is because the chosen track can greatly impact the intensity forecast.

I'd guess GFS from this on NHC model page. But I'm not sure.

The SHIPS model is a statistical-dynamical intensity model that bases its forecasts on statistical relationships between storm behavior and predictors obtained from dynamical model forecasts. Due to the use of dynamical predictors in addition to climatology and persistence, the average intensity errors from SHIPS are typically 10%-15% less than those from SHIFOR5. In addition, SHIPS has historically outperformed most of the dynamical models, including the GFS, which provides the dynamical input to SHIPS.

[Ed Mahmoud]

After watching this video, the JB model confidently says where this sytem will go.


http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-dem ... PenStoneJB

Hmmmmmmmmm, error message

JB has backed off just a tad on latest pay-per-view post, now, Texas or Louisiana.


Louisiana seems the likely target in my very humble and uneducated opinion.

[TSmith274]

Bob Breck's (N.O. met) coveted Vipir brings it right over N.O. as a pretty robust system. I couldn't really get a read on the intensity, but it was certainly a healthy cyclone. Possibly a cat 1 from the signature depicted on Vipir. Of course, Bob doesn't believe it... yet.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bob Breck's (N.O. met) coveted Vipir brings it right over N.O. as a pretty robust system. I couldn't really get a read on the intensity, but it was certainly a healthy cyclone. Possibly a cat 1 from the signature depicted on Vipir. Of course, Bob doesn't believe it... yet.

Too many models aimed at NOLA for comfort, if I were in NOLA.

But I'd be nervous anywhere between Cameron and Pensacola.


Of course, there is no TC yet, and maybe one won't develop.

[americanrebel]

What is the likely hood of (soon to be Jerry) this wave making it to the GOM and stalling for a day in the center of the GOM and strengthen to a very large and intense system then head for the Texas/Louisiana line or a litte east of the TX/LA line. This would cause a very major problem, because none of the mets around here or the state officials have even started talking about this being more than a small disturbance making landfall sometime this weekend causing some rain and wind, but nothing more. This would cause a major problem and catch a lot of people off gaurd and we would have a major problem worse than Katrina. Yes the Tx/LA line area doesn not have as many people as New Orleans, but there is not as many major roads out there either, so many people would get stuck and there is people that are still without electricity from Humberto.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Anyone notice that some key models on the SFWMD site have failed to update? People looking at this image ( https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_93.gif ) probably still think all the model tracks are clustered at SE Louisiana. However, they actually have shifted some this evening, and that cluster is not quite as tight. Here is a look at a few other sites in case anyone is interested..

More up-to-date GFS, NOGAPS, and GFDL tracks = http://icons.wunderground.com/data/imag ... _model.gif

Another site for models = http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

[cycloneye]

HWRF is having problems as the 18z run did not comed out.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS Starting to roll

Who wants to post the surface while I post the 200mb?

[cycloneye]

00z GFS 200mb at 6 hours

[Extremeweatherguy]

I can do it for a little while..

12 hours = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012l.gif

[MiamiensisWx]

12 hours

200 mbar winds

It develops a closed sfc low (~1009 mbar) off Miami, FL.

[DESTRUCTION5]

0 z takes to Tx right?

[Extremeweatherguy]

0 z takes to Tx right?

The 18z took it to the TX/LA border. We do not know what the 00z will show yet though.

[DESTRUCTION5]

0 z takes to Tx right?

The 18z took it to the TX/LA border. We do not know what the 00z will show yet though.

What did i just look at? on the colorado site?
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

AVNI = GFS E Texas area..

[Extremeweatherguy]

24 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

Low moving across S. Florida

[cycloneye]

00z GFS 200mb at 24 hours

30 kts of shear.

[vaffie]

0 z takes to Tx right?

Most likely this run will take it into Texas considering that the AVNI early 00Z guidance shifted significantly westward to Galveston from New Orleans. Compare:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

vs 18Z early guidance:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png

[Extremeweatherguy]

0 z takes to Tx right?

The 18z took it to the TX/LA border. We do not know what the 00z will show yet though.

What did i just look at? on the colorado site?

Hmm. I don't know. May be they get the runs early? Is that even possible? I am a bit confused too. I guess we should wait and see if the 00z we are currently posting ends up matching the colorado state site.