Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

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Johnny
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Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs

#121 Postby Johnny » Tue Sep 18, 2007 9:42 pm

Last edited by Johnny on Tue Sep 18, 2007 9:54 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs

#122 Postby Jagno » Tue Sep 18, 2007 9:46 pm

Johnny wrote:After watching this video, the JB model confidently says where this sytem will go.


http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-dem ... PenStoneJB



Hmmmmmmmmm, error message
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs

#123 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Sep 18, 2007 9:46 pm

wxman57 wrote:I don't know the answer to my question, guys. I'm trying to find out what track the NHC uses for the SHIP and DSHP guidance when there is no NHC track. I would think that the decision may be flexible. What are they using for the 00Z tonight runs? The reason I'd like to know is because the chosen track can greatly impact the intensity forecast.


I'd guess GFS from this on NHC model page. But I'm not sure.


The SHIPS model is a statistical-dynamical intensity model that bases its forecasts on statistical relationships between storm behavior and predictors obtained from dynamical model forecasts. Due to the use of dynamical predictors in addition to climatology and persistence, the average intensity errors from SHIPS are typically 10%-15% less than those from SHIFOR5. In addition, SHIPS has historically outperformed most of the dynamical models, including the GFS, which provides the dynamical input to SHIPS.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs

#124 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Sep 18, 2007 9:47 pm

Jagno wrote:
Johnny wrote:After watching this video, the JB model confidently says where this sytem will go.


http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-dem ... PenStoneJB



Hmmmmmmmmm, error message


JB has backed off just a tad on latest pay-per-view post, now, Texas or Louisiana.


Louisiana seems the likely target in my very humble and uneducated opinion.
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#125 Postby TSmith274 » Tue Sep 18, 2007 9:50 pm

Bob Breck's (N.O. met) coveted Vipir brings it right over N.O. as a pretty robust system. I couldn't really get a read on the intensity, but it was certainly a healthy cyclone. Possibly a cat 1 from the signature depicted on Vipir. Of course, Bob doesn't believe it... yet.
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Re:

#126 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:02 pm

TSmith274 wrote:Bob Breck's (N.O. met) coveted Vipir brings it right over N.O. as a pretty robust system. I couldn't really get a read on the intensity, but it was certainly a healthy cyclone. Possibly a cat 1 from the signature depicted on Vipir. Of course, Bob doesn't believe it... yet.



Too many models aimed at NOLA for comfort, if I were in NOLA.

But I'd be nervous anywhere between Cameron and Pensacola.


Of course, there is no TC yet, and maybe one won't develop.
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#127 Postby americanrebel » Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:05 pm

What is the likely hood of (soon to be Jerry) this wave making it to the GOM and stalling for a day in the center of the GOM and strengthen to a very large and intense system then head for the Texas/Louisiana line or a litte east of the TX/LA line. This would cause a very major problem, because none of the mets around here or the state officials have even started talking about this being more than a small disturbance making landfall sometime this weekend causing some rain and wind, but nothing more. This would cause a major problem and catch a lot of people off gaurd and we would have a major problem worse than Katrina. Yes the Tx/LA line area doesn not have as many people as New Orleans, but there is not as many major roads out there either, so many people would get stuck and there is people that are still without electricity from Humberto.
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#128 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:08 pm

Anyone notice that some key models on the SFWMD site have failed to update? People looking at this image ( https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_93.gif ) probably still think all the model tracks are clustered at SE Louisiana. However, they actually have shifted some this evening, and that cluster is not quite as tight. Here is a look at a few other sites in case anyone is interested..

More up-to-date GFS, NOGAPS, and GFDL tracks = http://icons.wunderground.com/data/imag ... _model.gif

Another site for models = http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
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Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs

#129 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:11 pm

HWRF is having problems as the 18z run did not comed out.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs=00z GFS rolling in

#130 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:29 pm

00z GFS Starting to roll

Who wants to post the surface while I post the 200mb?
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Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs=00z GFS rolling in

#131 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:32 pm

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#132 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:33 pm

I can do it for a little while..

12 hours = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012l.gif
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Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs=00z GFS rolling in

#133 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:33 pm

12 hours

200 mbar winds

It develops a closed sfc low (~1009 mbar) off Miami, FL.
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#134 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:34 pm

0 z takes to Tx right?
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Re:

#135 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:35 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:0 z takes to Tx right?
The 18z took it to the TX/LA border. We do not know what the 00z will show yet though.
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Re: Re:

#136 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:35 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:0 z takes to Tx right?
The 18z took it to the TX/LA border. We do not know what the 00z will show yet though.



What did i just look at? on the colorado site?
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

AVNI = GFS E Texas area..
Last edited by DESTRUCTION5 on Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#137 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:36 pm

24 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

Low moving across S. Florida
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Re: INVEST 93L: Model Runs=00z GFS rolling in

#138 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:37 pm

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Re:

#139 Postby vaffie » Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:37 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:0 z takes to Tx right?


Most likely this run will take it into Texas considering that the AVNI early 00Z guidance shifted significantly westward to Galveston from New Orleans. Compare:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

vs 18Z early guidance:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png
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Re: Re:

#140 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:38 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:0 z takes to Tx right?
The 18z took it to the TX/LA border. We do not know what the 00z will show yet though.



What did i just look at? on the colorado site?
Hmm. I don't know. May be they get the runs early? Is that even possible? I am a bit confused too. I guess we should wait and see if the 00z we are currently posting ends up matching the colorado state site.
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