jschlitz wrote:These are comments from Jeff Lindner on this system:Potential for tropical cyclone to impact the TX coast.
Changes to forecast from Wednesday through Friday are required based on latest HPC and NHC thinking and 12Z model guidance. At 300pm visible images along with radar from Cancun, Mexico clearly show a well defined low level circulation about 100 miles N of the Yucatan coast. Upper level low over the central Gulf of Mexico is moving W toward the S TX coast with strong southerly shear across the top of 91L. Shear should weaken over the next 12 -24 hours as the upper low moves westward. Steering of 91L then comes under the influence of large scale high over the southern plains.
Current model guidance including 12Z run of GFDL takes the system into the S TX coast between Brownsville and Corpus Christi which is also supported by the GFS and NAM. Will disregard 68kts by the SHIPS and follow closer with the 50kts depicted on the DSIPS guidance suggesting a landfalling tropical storm late Wednesday along the lower TX coast.
Will need to make significant changes to wind and seas forecast and rainfall/QPF forecast starting Wednesday. At this time core of adverse weather should impact areas from Matagorda Bay southward.
Seas: Expect coastal winds to shift to the ENE Tuesday and begin to increase by Wednesday as Gulf pressures lower. Wave Watch III guidance builds offshore swells into the 8-12 foot range starting early Wednesday as tropical storm force winds spread into the outer coastal waters. Will increase from flat seas of 1-2 feet into 6-8 feet coast to 12 feet offshore. Increasing swells and winds will result in tidal run-up along the beaches starting late Tuesday. Will increase tides into the 1.0-2.0 foot above normal range (Brazoria County N) and into the 2.0-2.5 foot range (Brazoria County S). Could see tides up to 4.0 feet above normal around Matagorda Bay by late Wednesday with overwash of protection dunes.
Winds: Will increase winds into the 20-30mph range out of the E to ENE for Wednesday. May be close to northern extent of TS force wind radii over the Matagorda Bay area late Wednesday. Squalls and rainbands will likely produce gust at or above 40mph along the coast.
Rain Chances: Will up chances to 50% by Wednesday and may need to go even higher especially W of I-45 based on forecast track of center and deep surge of 2.50+ PWS. NAM and GFS show most of the heavy rains N and E of the center of the system…so even a landfall in S TX would support heavy rains and squalls northward up the TX coast. HPC progs show 6.4 inch bullseye near the landfall locations with widespread 2-4 inches contours up the TX coast into Matagorda Bay.
Residents along the TX coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
Continued significant forecast changes are possible based on the forecast track and intensity of the system.
Crap, Matagorda is mentioned alot there
