Purple: barbs indicating the cloud motions of what looks to be a ill-defined broad LLC extending from 33W-38W.
Orange: Area I suspect a new LLC is forming/is.
Green: Dissipating LLC.
Here is my reasoning:
Their are indications that there is a new LLC because:
1)Strong vorticity is noted in the convection (it could be Mid level though, but I suspect its translating down to the surface as well).
2)Observe the speeds of the clouds on different sides of the low: On the eastern side they are very slow, while clouds on the Northern side of the convection are screaming SW into the convection, indicating that the western side of this broad low is more intense.
3) The eastern portion of the broad low has not fired off convection for a good while.
4) There is a marked change in structure from midnight till now:
Take a look at this.....
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 5#controls
From about 5:00UTC to now you can see a clear change in the cyclone's organization. During this time span it went from this:
High sheared and unorganized
to this:
Convection indicating strong vorticity.
I think this thing might still undergo shearing as midlevel shear is still present, but honestly I think the NHC needs to go ahead and declare this...its painfully obvious.
