Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics
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I think the dominant center has definitely relocated under the convection now. Ill post diagrams to back this up:
Purple: barbs indicating the cloud motions of what looks to be a ill-defined broad LLC extending from 33W-38W.
Orange: Area I suspect a new LLC is forming/is.
Green: Dissipating LLC.
Here is my reasoning:
Their are indications that there is a new LLC because:
1)Strong vorticity is noted in the convection (it could be Mid level though, but I suspect its translating down to the surface as well).
2)Observe the speeds of the clouds on different sides of the low: On the eastern side they are very slow, while clouds on the Northern side of the convection are screaming SW into the convection, indicating that the western side of this broad low is more intense.
3) The eastern portion of the broad low has not fired off convection for a good while.
4) There is a marked change in structure from midnight till now:
Take a look at this.....
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 5#controls
From about 5:00UTC to now you can see a clear change in the cyclone's organization. During this time span it went from this:
High sheared and unorganized
to this:
Convection indicating strong vorticity.
I think this thing might still undergo shearing as midlevel shear is still present, but honestly I think the NHC needs to go ahead and declare this...its painfully obvious.
Purple: barbs indicating the cloud motions of what looks to be a ill-defined broad LLC extending from 33W-38W.
Orange: Area I suspect a new LLC is forming/is.
Green: Dissipating LLC.
Here is my reasoning:
Their are indications that there is a new LLC because:
1)Strong vorticity is noted in the convection (it could be Mid level though, but I suspect its translating down to the surface as well).
2)Observe the speeds of the clouds on different sides of the low: On the eastern side they are very slow, while clouds on the Northern side of the convection are screaming SW into the convection, indicating that the western side of this broad low is more intense.
3) The eastern portion of the broad low has not fired off convection for a good while.
4) There is a marked change in structure from midnight till now:
Take a look at this.....
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 5#controls
From about 5:00UTC to now you can see a clear change in the cyclone's organization. During this time span it went from this:
High sheared and unorganized
to this:
Convection indicating strong vorticity.
I think this thing might still undergo shearing as midlevel shear is still present, but honestly I think the NHC needs to go ahead and declare this...its painfully obvious.
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- cycloneye
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Re:
Chris_in_Tampa wrote:It's officially TD4:
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 042007.ren
Until NHC officially releases an advisory,nothing apart from that is official.
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- wxman57
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Re: Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Dvorak T number 2.0/2.0
Model run just in says "Tropical Cyclone Four for the header. Should be official soon:
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1240 UTC MON AUG 13 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (AL042007) 20070813 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070813 1200 070814 0000 070814 1200 070815 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 30.7W 13.0N 33.4W 13.8N 36.7W 14.6N 40.5W
BAMD 12.1N 30.7W 12.4N 34.2W 12.7N 37.8W 12.9N 41.4W
BAMM 12.1N 30.7W 12.9N 33.9W 13.6N 37.6W 14.2N 41.5W
LBAR 12.1N 30.7W 12.1N 34.2W 12.3N 38.4W 12.6N 42.6W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070815 1200 070816 1200 070817 1200 070818 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 45.1W 17.0N 55.4W 17.9N 65.5W 17.1N 73.8W
BAMD 13.2N 45.1W 14.7N 52.8W 16.6N 59.5W 18.8N 66.3W
BAMM 14.8N 46.0W 15.8N 55.8W 15.7N 64.6W 14.7N 71.2W
LBAR 13.0N 47.2W 13.5N 55.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 52KTS 62KTS 65KTS 65KTS
DSHP 52KTS 62KTS 65KTS 65KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 30.7W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 27.1W DIRM12 = 267DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 24.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1240 UTC MON AUG 13 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (AL042007) 20070813 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070813 1200 070814 0000 070814 1200 070815 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 30.7W 13.0N 33.4W 13.8N 36.7W 14.6N 40.5W
BAMD 12.1N 30.7W 12.4N 34.2W 12.7N 37.8W 12.9N 41.4W
BAMM 12.1N 30.7W 12.9N 33.9W 13.6N 37.6W 14.2N 41.5W
LBAR 12.1N 30.7W 12.1N 34.2W 12.3N 38.4W 12.6N 42.6W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070815 1200 070816 1200 070817 1200 070818 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 45.1W 17.0N 55.4W 17.9N 65.5W 17.1N 73.8W
BAMD 13.2N 45.1W 14.7N 52.8W 16.6N 59.5W 18.8N 66.3W
BAMM 14.8N 46.0W 15.8N 55.8W 15.7N 64.6W 14.7N 71.2W
LBAR 13.0N 47.2W 13.5N 55.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 52KTS 62KTS 65KTS 65KTS
DSHP 52KTS 62KTS 65KTS 65KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 30.7W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 27.1W DIRM12 = 267DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 24.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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Re: Re:
cycloneye wrote:Chris_in_Tampa wrote:It's officially TD4:
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 042007.ren
Until NHC officially releases an advisory,nothing apart from that is official.
It's NOAA/NCEP/the TPC's anonymous FTP server... I think that's fairly official, coming straight from NOAA.
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Re: Invest 90L:East Atlantic,12:00 Models,30 kts
isn't this great
SHIPS cannot make a shear forecast beyond 72 hours on this run... the dreaded N/A and LOST have appeared
SHIPS cannot make a shear forecast beyond 72 hours on this run... the dreaded N/A and LOST have appeared
Last edited by Derek Ortt on Mon Aug 13, 2007 7:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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-
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Aside from being on the front page of the NHC in a few hours, it is as official as you can get:
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 007.invest
However, I can understand if you want to wait. The ATCF database has had massive problems overnight.
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 007.invest
However, I can understand if you want to wait. The ATCF database has had massive problems overnight.
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Re:
punkyg wrote:I wonder why they took down 90L off of wunderground.
i can't wait til 11am
Its a TD thats why..
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- HURAKAN
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Re:
punkyg wrote:They messed up 90L floater.
which storm is this
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg
TD 4.
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- Evil Jeremy
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Re: Invest 90L:East Atlantic,12:00 Models,30 kts
Morning everyone! Today is going to be a busy day
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Re: Invest 90L:East Atlantic,12:00 Models,30 kts
There was a slight delay from when 90L was upgraded to 04L. Wunderground may have updated their site from the ATCF database during that time and their system realized 90L had been renumbered but that the new file for 04L was not yet available.
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Re: Re:
No that can't be could it?HURAKAN wrote:punkyg wrote:They messed up 90L floater.
which storm is this
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg
TD 4.
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- DESTRUCTION5
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- Evil Jeremy
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Re: Invest 90L:East Atlantic,12:00 Models,30 kts
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_04.gif
these model runs are starting to worry me. their turning northward
these model runs are starting to worry me. their turning northward
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Re: Re:
punkyg wrote:No that can't be could it?HURAKAN wrote:punkyg wrote:They messed up 90L floater.
which storm is this
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg
TD 4.
Look at the bottom - MTSAT Floater 1. WPac Severe TS Sepat.
Alternatively you could be getting a different image, SSD is notorious with that.
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Re:
punkyg wrote:They messed up 90L floater.
which storm is this
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg
That was Sepat in the West Pacific. (will probably be fixed very soon) Looks like the floater got mixed up somehow with MTSAT floater 1.
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