CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[punkyg]

Any one have a shear map i can look at.
i wanna see what shear is over td4.

[HURAKAN]

There should be another Global Model Thread since it's already on page 27 and we should only have a 25.

[meteorologyman]

Here's a couple
http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/

[cycloneye]

There should be another Global Model Thread since it's already on page 27 and we should only have a 25.

In this forum we are letting the threads go beyond 25 pages.

[Steve H.]

The only good news is that the EURO now keeps it off the coast and east of Florida. That is the 12Z I'm really interested in! But now we have to wait til 3pm

[storms in NC]

H-192 Rides up the east coast of Florida


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif

AAWWWW A Floyd track. I Do Not want to see that again. I hate Floyd lost my home to that GGGGRRRRRRRr

[msbee]

Now the big question is: What the 12z run will bring? Landfall in Brownsville,Destin,Miami,SC/NC,New York City,Cape Cod
or it will go fishing.

wow, Luis, aren't those all wonderful choices?
But first of all it has to get past you and me.
I feel like I am on the end of a yo yo here...
Barbara

[linkerweather]

06z GFDL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hur_nested/storm_2/06/images/hur_pcp_126l.gif

Farther SW then 00z, 06z now in NE Caribbean

06z HWRF
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hwrf_nested/storm_2/06/images/hwrf_pcp_126s.gif

Just south of PR, much farther SW from the 00z run.


For the record, I have no faith at this point beyond 3 days in any model until 4 organizes fully and then is inputted into the models. As an aside the GFS ensembles have been all over the place. Granted this is a 00z post of the ensemble and the 06z would be out very soon

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hwrf_nested/storm_2/06/images/hwrf_pcp_126s.gif

[miamicanes177]

For the record, I have no faith at this point beyond 3 days in any model until 4 organizes fully and then is inputted into the models. As an aside the GFS ensembles have been all over the place. Granted this is a 00z post of the ensemble and the 06z would be out very soon

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hwrf_nested/storm_2/06/images/hwrf_pcp_126s.gif

I agree about having no faith beyond 3 days. Model Madness.

[dcuevas]

I should have sleep in! I'm on the downside of building my home and staying in the darn RV. On the other hand I am happy to see something happening. Please don't take this bad and I'm not -removed-. After all I lost my last home to Charlie.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NHC track seems to be on the NE side of the model consensus now. They may have to move it SW some at 11.

[canegrl04]

I would ignore the models for now.They won't have a handle on its direction forecast untill a recon can be done .We should be getting the first recon by Thurday

[storms in NC]

The NHC track seems to be on the NE side of the model consensus now. They may have to move it SW some at 11.

I don't think they will at 11 but later on today maybe.

[windstorm99]

View of the GFS from this morning...

[Scorpion]

I don't understand why the NHC won't name it. Just because it is a little sheared doesnt make a difference... QUIKSAT sees 55 kt winds

[HURAKAN]

The NHC track seems to be on the NE side of the model consensus now. They may have to move it SW some at 11.

I don't think they will at 11 but later on today maybe.

If the system continues weak, then a more southerly track is likely.

[jimvb]

Here's a scale that can rate Atlantic hurricanes by the place they first hit:

0 - Mexico and southern Texas
1 - Houston area
2 - Louisiana/Texas border
3 - New Orleans and Mississippi
4 - Pensacola and Mobile
5 - Up the Florida peninsula
6 - Outer Banks
7 - New England
8 - Canadian Maritimes
9 - Out to sea without hitting the North American continent

This has been the record of the GFS up to now (since 2007 Aug 8 18Z):

17497993264510000016865

You can take this to Excel and make a chart out of it. Looks interesting. Looks all over the place. I am hoping that the end result is not 6, as that would head it my way, and that it is not 1, 2, or 3 either, since that would affect our gasoline and oil supply.

[Thunder44]

Latest Dvorak T-numbers have at 35kts:

14/1145 UTC 12.0N 38.6W T2.5/2.5 04L

Most likely a TS by 11am.

[HURAKAN]

Dean't I tell you this was going to intensify!!!!

[Scorpion]

Should definitely see a TS at 11 then unless Avila is writing the advisory