CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads
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Re: Global Models for TD4
The only good news is that the EURO now keeps it off the coast and east of Florida. That is the 12Z I'm really interested in! But now we have to wait til 3pm 

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- storms in NC
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Re:
Vortex wrote:H-192 Rides up the east coast of Florida
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif
AAWWWW A Floyd track. I Do Not want to see that again. I hate Floyd lost my home to that GGGGRRRRRRRr
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Re: Global Models for TD4=6z GFS run=Landfall in SE Florida
cycloneye wrote:Now the big question is: What the 12z run will bring? Landfall in Brownsville,Destin,Miami,SC/NC,New York City,Cape Cod
or it will go fishing.
wow, Luis, aren't those all wonderful choices?
But first of all it has to get past you and me.
I feel like I am on the end of a yo yo here...

Barbara
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- linkerweather
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Re: Global Models for TD4
06z GFDL
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hur_nested/storm_2/06/images/hur_pcp_126l.gif
Farther SW then 00z, 06z now in NE Caribbean
06z HWRF
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hwrf_nested/storm_2/06/images/hwrf_pcp_126s.gif
Just south of PR, much farther SW from the 00z run.
For the record, I have no faith at this point beyond 3 days in any model until 4 organizes fully and then is inputted into the models. As an aside the GFS ensembles have been all over the place. Granted this is a 00z post of the ensemble and the 06z would be out very soon
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hwrf_nested/storm_2/06/images/hwrf_pcp_126s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hur_nested/storm_2/06/images/hur_pcp_126l.gif
Farther SW then 00z, 06z now in NE Caribbean
06z HWRF
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hwrf_nested/storm_2/06/images/hwrf_pcp_126s.gif
Just south of PR, much farther SW from the 00z run.
For the record, I have no faith at this point beyond 3 days in any model until 4 organizes fully and then is inputted into the models. As an aside the GFS ensembles have been all over the place. Granted this is a 00z post of the ensemble and the 06z would be out very soon
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hwrf_nested/storm_2/06/images/hwrf_pcp_126s.gif
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Re: Global Models for TD4
linkerweather wrote:For the record, I have no faith at this point beyond 3 days in any model until 4 organizes fully and then is inputted into the models. As an aside the GFS ensembles have been all over the place. Granted this is a 00z post of the ensemble and the 06z would be out very soon
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hwrf_nested/storm_2/06/images/hwrf_pcp_126s.gif
I agree about having no faith beyond 3 days. Model Madness.
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Re: Global Models for TD4
I should have sleep in!
I'm on the downside of building my home and staying in the darn RV. On the other hand I am happy to see something happening. Please don't take this bad and I'm not -removed-. After all I lost my last home to Charlie.

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- Extremeweatherguy
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Re: Tropical Depression 4,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics
I would ignore the models for now.They won't have a handle on its direction forecast untill a recon can be done .We should be getting the first recon by Thurday
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- storms in NC
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Re:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:The NHC track seems to be on the NE side of the model consensus now. They may have to move it SW some at 11.
I don't think they will at 11 but later on today maybe.
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- windstorm99
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Re: Tropical Depression 4,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics
View of the GFS from this morning...


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- HURAKAN
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Re: Re:
storms in NC wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:The NHC track seems to be on the NE side of the model consensus now. They may have to move it SW some at 11.
I don't think they will at 11 but later on today maybe.
If the system continues weak, then a more southerly track is likely.
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Re: Global Models for TD4
Here's a scale that can rate Atlantic hurricanes by the place they first hit:
0 - Mexico and southern Texas
1 - Houston area
2 - Louisiana/Texas border
3 - New Orleans and Mississippi
4 - Pensacola and Mobile
5 - Up the Florida peninsula
6 - Outer Banks
7 - New England
8 - Canadian Maritimes
9 - Out to sea without hitting the North American continent
This has been the record of the GFS up to now (since 2007 Aug 8 18Z):
17497993264510000016865
You can take this to Excel and make a chart out of it. Looks interesting. Looks all over the place. I am hoping that the end result is not 6, as that would head it my way, and that it is not 1, 2, or 3 either, since that would affect our gasoline and oil supply.
0 - Mexico and southern Texas
1 - Houston area
2 - Louisiana/Texas border
3 - New Orleans and Mississippi
4 - Pensacola and Mobile
5 - Up the Florida peninsula
6 - Outer Banks
7 - New England
8 - Canadian Maritimes
9 - Out to sea without hitting the North American continent
This has been the record of the GFS up to now (since 2007 Aug 8 18Z):
17497993264510000016865
You can take this to Excel and make a chart out of it. Looks interesting. Looks all over the place. I am hoping that the end result is not 6, as that would head it my way, and that it is not 1, 2, or 3 either, since that would affect our gasoline and oil supply.
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Re: Tropical Depression 4,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics
Latest Dvorak T-numbers have at 35kts:
14/1145 UTC 12.0N 38.6W T2.5/2.5 04L
Most likely a TS by 11am.
14/1145 UTC 12.0N 38.6W T2.5/2.5 04L
Most likely a TS by 11am.
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