ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[bvigal]

It's quiet here right now, but we've had about 4 short-lived bouts of blowing rain since I got up at 5:30. I had the windows down to about 3/4" open and had to close them on all but W side (porch overhang there), the floor was getting wet. My unofficial rain gage is a towel on the floor under the kitchen skylight (leaks in heavy rain), and the size of the wet spot tells me we have had at least a measurable amount of rain, maybe 1/4".

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, after days of looking like a disorganized mess, 93L has turned a corner. Not sure if recon will find a closed surface circulation or not, but it now looks like it probably will become a tropical cyclone in the next day or so, IMHO.

[caribepr]

The rain has stopped here. Some wind, nothing scary though.

[O Town]

Its back looking better than ever this morning.

[GeneratorPower]

No storms for a week! You hear that 93L? At least it looks like it's heading to the north and out to sea. Won't have to man the desk 24/7 with teams of forecasters for a fish (once it's north of Caribbean). Everyone's trying to get a rest and most of my team are still without power (some have no water) at home.

I was hunting for a better generator this afternoon. Can't find one in Houston. My current one only runs 2 hrs on a tank. Hard to sleep if I have to get up every 2 hours to fill the 1 gal tank. I can look out my window and see power 3 houses away but we may be days from getting the one stupid pole in our neighborhood replaced so that we can get power.

wxman57, check your PM about the generator.

[cycloneye]

21/1145 UTC 17.6N 66.5W T1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[CrazyC83]

Its back looking better than ever this morning.

Is that a dry slot or a center masquerading as an eye?

[punkyg]

Is 93L expected to pass over or to the south of Puerto Rico?

[HURAKAN]

93L really has a shot at Kyle!

[HURAKAN]

CrazyC83, no, look at the visible. An overshooting cloud.

[wxman57]

Radar loop above sure looks like a closed circulation to me.

Just keep in mind that radar isn't showing the surface winds. The farther away from the radar source, the higher in the clouds you're looking. Let me see if I can get GARP running on this weak wireless connection so I can make a surface plot of the NE Caribbean. That's where to look for an LLC - surface obs - not radar or satellite.

[RL3AO]

Didn't expect it to look this good today. Too much stuff to do today. Maybe 93L wouldn't mind waiting a day or two to form?

[HURAKAN]

Magic happens during DMAX!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Radar loop above sure looks like a closed circulation to me.

Just keep in mind that radar isn't showing the surface winds. The farther away from the radar source, the higher in the clouds you're looking. Let me see if I can get GARP running on this weak wireless connection so I can make a surface plot of the NE Caribbean. That's where to look for an LLC - surface obs - not radar or satellite.

You don't have to work for a system that looks like it is headed to sleep with Lucca Brazzi, but turns back Northwest towards the Mid-Atlantic?


BTW, despite being in a deep blue zip code, no power until after 9/25, I've had power since very late Wednesday. There are isolated streets around the neighborhood still dark, however.

My wife's Tia Elvira and Tio Jorge have lights next block over, but a tree took down a pole with a transformer on their block, so no idea when they get back online.


The out to sea head fake and back courtesy of 0Z GFDL, BTW, and would make Joe Bastardi proud.

[bvigal]

Just saved a picture of radar long-range loop. Per 12z position estimate, you can look yourself at
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no
and hover your cursor over the area until the box lower right shows 17.0N 66.5W. Same area on looping looks to be a circulation. (Wxman, I know it's not on the surface in the radar beam, surely not arguing that fact, but it's close enough, and matches the fix position. To me, it means something to SEE it on radar, even if it's above surface.) I'm not claiming it's closed, would not go that far. We'll see what recon finds later.

[wxman57]

You don't have to work for a system that looks like it is headed to sleep with Lucca Brazzi, but turns back Northwest towards the Mid-Atlantic?


BTW, despite being in a deep blue zip code, no power until after 9/25, I've had power since very late Wednesday. There are isolated streets around the neighborhood still dark, however.

My wife's Tia Elvira and Tio Jorge have lights next block over, but a tree took down a pole with a transformer on their block, so no idea when they get back online.


The out to sea head fake and back courtesy of 0Z GFDL, BTW, and would make Joe Bastardi proud.

Sure do have to go on 24/7 coverage for this system if it develops. I think it may merge with the predicted storm center along the Mid Atlantic Coast late this week. Could be impacting our east coast clients.

Here's a GARP image. Not much evidence of an LLC and winds around the area only 5-15 kts. Certainly no TD now. Not much for recon to fly into today. Earliest possible TD is tomorrow, I'd think.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just saved a picture of radar long-range loop. Per 12z position estimate, you can look yourself at
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no
and hover your cursor over the area until the box lower right shows 17.0N 66.5W. Same area on looping looks to be a circulation. (Wxman, I know it's not on the surface in the radar beam, surely not arguing that fact, but it's close enough, and matches the fix position. To me, it means something to SEE it on radar, even if it's above surface.) I'm not claiming it's closed, would not go that far. We'll see what recon finds later.

Yeah, not sure why we argue these points too finely. If there is a big blob of convection, reasonably favorable conditions, and radar shows a circulation, even if it is mid-level, it would seem odds are better than even a surface circulation will develop within a day or two. In my humble and unproffesional opinion.

[wxman57]

Just saved a picture of radar long-range loop. Per 12z position estimate, you can look yourself at
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no
and hover your cursor over the area until the box lower right shows 17.0N 66.5W. Same area on looping looks to be a circulation. (Wxman, I know it's not on the surface in the radar beam, surely not arguing that fact, but it's close enough, and matches the fix position. To me, it means something to SEE it on radar, even if it's above surface.) I'm not claiming it's closed, would not go that far. We'll see what recon finds later.
http://img180.imageshack.us/img180/9356/93lonradarji8.jpg

There may be something there aloft, but the surface obs say any lower pressure or possible weak LLC is near the SW tip of PR now - to the WNW of any higher-level circulation. This is an indication that the system is still experiencing wind shear.

[cycloneye]

For the members who dont know about the highest peak mountain in Puerto Rico,its Cerro Punta in the central part of the island at 4,389 feet as part of la Cordillera Central.La Cordillera Central is a range of mountains that goes east to west in Central Puerto Rico.Also there is another range of mountains in Eastern Puerto Rico and its name is Sierra de Luquillo,where el Yunque peak is 3,494 feet and Pico del toro is 3,524 feet.I am posting this information as the members will keep this in mind as the system crosses the island.

[bvigal]

Just saved a picture of radar long-range loop. Per 12z position estimate, you can look yourself at
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no
and hover your cursor over the area until the box lower right shows 17.0N 66.5W. Same area on looping looks to be a circulation. (Wxman, I know it's not on the surface in the radar beam, surely not arguing that fact, but it's close enough, and matches the fix position. To me, it means something to SEE it on radar, even if it's above surface.) I'm not claiming it's closed, would not go that far. We'll see what recon finds later.
http://img180.imageshack.us/img180/9356/93lonradarji8.jpg

There may be something there aloft, but the surface obs say any lower pressure or possible weak LLC is near the SW tip of PR now - to the WNW of any higher-level circulation. This is an indication that the system is still experiencing wind shear.

Maybe I wasn't clear. Here was my point: The fix position issued by NHC at 8am matches circulation shown on radar at 8:18am. That's ALL I was saying, that's all, nothing more.