Madagascar: OVERLAND DEPRESSION ex. IVAN (TC 18S)

[Squarethecircle]

Hrrmph. The convective makes it looks like a false eye to me. There's absolutely nothing on the southern side.

[HURAKAN]

"Eye" disappears.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 FEB 2008 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 15:48:30 S Lon : 63:32:44 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 985.4mb/ 53.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.5 3.7 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -48.8C Cloud Region Temp : -56.9C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.88 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Crostorm]

18SIVAN.60kts-978mb

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 090013

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/11/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/09 AT 0000 UTC :
15.9S / 63.0E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 180 SO: 180 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/09 12 UTC: 15.9S/62.9E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/02/10 00 UTC: 15.8S/62.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/02/10 12 UTC: 15.7S/62.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/02/11 00 UTC: 15.5S/62.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/02/11 12 UTC: 15.3S/62.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/02/12 00 UTC: 15.2S/62.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0 CI=4.0+

CONVECTION DOES NOT CONSOLIDATE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT (CF AQUA
2110Z).

AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH IVAN'S
EVOLUTION AND SHOW A LARGE SPREAD.
IVAN IS IN A VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONEMENT AND SHOULD KEEP ON
TRACKING
VERY SLOWLY (ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE). ON MONDAY, TRACK SHOULD
TURN
NORTHWESTWARDS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

IF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY QUITE A LONG TIME.

GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD IN NWM SOLUTIONS, IT IS A LOWER THAN AVERAGE
DEGREE
OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.=

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 091226

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/11/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/09 AT 1200 UTC :
15.7S / 63.1E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/10 00 UTC: 15.5S/63.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2008/02/10 12 UTC: 15.3S/63.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/02/11 00 UTC: 15.2S/63.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/02/11 12 UTC: 15.1S/63.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/02/12 00 UTC: 15.0S/63.7E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/02/12 12 UTC: 14.8S/63.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-

AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH IVAN'S
EVOLUTION AND SHOW A LARGE SPREAD.
IVAN IS IN A VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONEMENT AND SHOULD KEEP ON
TRACKING
VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTERNWARDS. ON MONDAY 11, TRACK
SHOULD
TURN NORTHWESTWARDS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

IF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, INTESIFICATION IS EMPEDED IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY QUITE A LONG TIME.

GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD IN NWM SOLUTIONS, IT IS A LOWER THAN AVERAGE
DEGREE
OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.=

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 FEB 2008 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 14:52:27 S Lon : 64:39:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 989.6mb/ 47.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.2 3.3 3.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -66.4C Cloud Region Temp : -66.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[parvez_savage]

Why IVAN is being so lazy??? After tracking NE and later on NW, will it track the General SW direction????

[Crostorm]

so which way should I go

[Crostorm]

better organized

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 FEB 2008 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 14:51:29 S Lon : 64:43:00 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 986.8mb/ 51.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -64.0C Cloud Region Temp : -68.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 025
WTIO30 FMEE 101245 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/11/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN)
2.A POSITION 2008/02/10 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 64.6E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 240 SE: 110 SO: 090 NO: 240
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/11 00 UTC: 15.1S/64.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2008/02/11 12 UTC: 15.3S/64.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/02/12 00 UTC: 15.4S/64.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/02/12 12 UTC: 15.4S/63.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/02/13 00 UTC: 15.4S/62.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/02/13 12 UTC: 15.4S/61.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=3.5+
NNNN

[parvez_savage]

Ivan has still lots to say.....

[Squarethecircle]

I found this:


But it doesn't really look much like a banding eye, more like a spot.

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 258
WTIO30 FMEE 101830 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/11/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN)
2.A POSITION 2008/02/10 AT 1800 UTC :
14.6S / 65.0E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 230 SE: 100 SO: 090 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1200
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/11 06 UTC: 14.5S/65.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2008/02/11 18 UTC: 14.4S/65.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/02/12 06 UTC: 14.3S/65.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2008/02/12 18 UTC: 14.2S/64.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/02/13 06 UTC: 14.2S/64.0E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/02/13 18 UTC: 14.3S/63.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=3.5+
NNNN

[Pedro Fernández]

Wunderground:

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
06 GMT 02/07/08 12.9S 60.7E 40 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 02/07/08 14.5S 62.3E 65 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 02/08/08 15.5S 63.3E 65 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 02/08/08 16.1S 63.1E 70 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 02/09/08 15.7S 63.1E 75 Category 1
18 GMT 02/09/08 15.4S 63.8E 70 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 02/10/08 14.9S 64.5E 65 Tropical Storm

It seems there are some jumps in the IVAN's intensity... I also think IVAN has much to say

[Crostorm]

NRL- 18SIVAN.75kts-967mb

[Squarethecircle]

Potential beginnings of an eye.