Madagascar: OVERLAND DEPRESSION ex. IVAN (TC 18S)
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Re: South Indian Ocean: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM IVAN (TC 18S)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 FEB 2008 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 15:48:30 S Lon : 63:32:44 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 985.4mb/ 53.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.5 3.7 3.7
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -48.8C Cloud Region Temp : -56.9C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.88 ARC in LT GRAY
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 FEB 2008 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 15:48:30 S Lon : 63:32:44 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 985.4mb/ 53.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.5 3.7 3.7
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -48.8C Cloud Region Temp : -56.9C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.88 ARC in LT GRAY
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
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WTIO30 FMEE 090013
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/11/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN)
2.A POSITION 2008/02/09 AT 0000 UTC :
15.9S / 63.0E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 180 SO: 180 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/09 12 UTC: 15.9S/62.9E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/02/10 00 UTC: 15.8S/62.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/02/10 12 UTC: 15.7S/62.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/02/11 00 UTC: 15.5S/62.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/02/11 12 UTC: 15.3S/62.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/02/12 00 UTC: 15.2S/62.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0 CI=4.0+
CONVECTION DOES NOT CONSOLIDATE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT (CF AQUA
2110Z).
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH IVAN'S
EVOLUTION AND SHOW A LARGE SPREAD.
IVAN IS IN A VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONEMENT AND SHOULD KEEP ON
TRACKING
VERY SLOWLY (ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE). ON MONDAY, TRACK SHOULD
TURN
NORTHWESTWARDS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
IF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY QUITE A LONG TIME.
GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD IN NWM SOLUTIONS, IT IS A LOWER THAN AVERAGE
DEGREE
OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.=
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/11/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN)
2.A POSITION 2008/02/09 AT 0000 UTC :
15.9S / 63.0E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 180 SO: 180 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/09 12 UTC: 15.9S/62.9E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/02/10 00 UTC: 15.8S/62.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/02/10 12 UTC: 15.7S/62.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/02/11 00 UTC: 15.5S/62.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/02/11 12 UTC: 15.3S/62.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/02/12 00 UTC: 15.2S/62.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0 CI=4.0+
CONVECTION DOES NOT CONSOLIDATE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT (CF AQUA
2110Z).
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH IVAN'S
EVOLUTION AND SHOW A LARGE SPREAD.
IVAN IS IN A VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONEMENT AND SHOULD KEEP ON
TRACKING
VERY SLOWLY (ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE). ON MONDAY, TRACK SHOULD
TURN
NORTHWESTWARDS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
IF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY QUITE A LONG TIME.
GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD IN NWM SOLUTIONS, IT IS A LOWER THAN AVERAGE
DEGREE
OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.=
0 likes
WTIO30 FMEE 091226
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/11/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN)
2.A POSITION 2008/02/09 AT 1200 UTC :
15.7S / 63.1E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/10 00 UTC: 15.5S/63.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2008/02/10 12 UTC: 15.3S/63.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/02/11 00 UTC: 15.2S/63.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/02/11 12 UTC: 15.1S/63.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/02/12 00 UTC: 15.0S/63.7E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/02/12 12 UTC: 14.8S/63.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH IVAN'S
EVOLUTION AND SHOW A LARGE SPREAD.
IVAN IS IN A VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONEMENT AND SHOULD KEEP ON
TRACKING
VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTERNWARDS. ON MONDAY 11, TRACK
SHOULD
TURN NORTHWESTWARDS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
IF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, INTESIFICATION IS EMPEDED IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY QUITE A LONG TIME.
GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD IN NWM SOLUTIONS, IT IS A LOWER THAN AVERAGE
DEGREE
OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.=
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/11/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN)
2.A POSITION 2008/02/09 AT 1200 UTC :
15.7S / 63.1E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/10 00 UTC: 15.5S/63.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2008/02/10 12 UTC: 15.3S/63.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/02/11 00 UTC: 15.2S/63.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/02/11 12 UTC: 15.1S/63.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/02/12 00 UTC: 15.0S/63.7E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/02/12 12 UTC: 14.8S/63.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH IVAN'S
EVOLUTION AND SHOW A LARGE SPREAD.
IVAN IS IN A VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONEMENT AND SHOULD KEEP ON
TRACKING
VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTERNWARDS. ON MONDAY 11, TRACK
SHOULD
TURN NORTHWESTWARDS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
IF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, INTESIFICATION IS EMPEDED IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY QUITE A LONG TIME.
GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD IN NWM SOLUTIONS, IT IS A LOWER THAN AVERAGE
DEGREE
OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.=
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- Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 50
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
Re: South Indian Ocean: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM IVAN (TC 18S)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 FEB 2008 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 14:52:27 S Lon : 64:39:00 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 989.6mb/ 47.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.2 3.3 3.6
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -66.4C Cloud Region Temp : -66.6C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 FEB 2008 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 14:52:27 S Lon : 64:39:00 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 989.6mb/ 47.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.2 3.3 3.6
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -66.4C Cloud Region Temp : -66.6C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
0 likes
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 25
- Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2008 10:17 am
Re: South Indian Ocean: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM IVAN (TC 18S)
Why IVAN is being so lazy??? After tracking NE and later on NW, will it track the General SW direction????
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- HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: South Indian Ocean: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM IVAN (TC 18S)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 FEB 2008 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 14:51:29 S Lon : 64:43:00 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 986.8mb/ 51.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -64.0C Cloud Region Temp : -68.9C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 FEB 2008 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 14:51:29 S Lon : 64:43:00 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 986.8mb/ 51.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -64.0C Cloud Region Temp : -68.9C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
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- Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 50
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
Re: South Indian Ocean: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM IVAN (TC 18S)
ZCZC 025
WTIO30 FMEE 101245 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/11/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN)
2.A POSITION 2008/02/10 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 64.6E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 240 SE: 110 SO: 090 NO: 240
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/11 00 UTC: 15.1S/64.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2008/02/11 12 UTC: 15.3S/64.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/02/12 00 UTC: 15.4S/64.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/02/12 12 UTC: 15.4S/63.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/02/13 00 UTC: 15.4S/62.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/02/13 12 UTC: 15.4S/61.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=3.5+
NNNN
WTIO30 FMEE 101245 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/11/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN)
2.A POSITION 2008/02/10 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 64.6E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 240 SE: 110 SO: 090 NO: 240
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/11 00 UTC: 15.1S/64.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2008/02/11 12 UTC: 15.3S/64.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/02/12 00 UTC: 15.4S/64.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/02/12 12 UTC: 15.4S/63.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/02/13 00 UTC: 15.4S/62.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/02/13 12 UTC: 15.4S/61.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=3.5+
NNNN
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-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 25
- Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2008 10:17 am
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- Category 5
- Posts: 2165
- Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:00 pm
- Location: Fairfax, VA
Re: South Indian Ocean: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM IVAN (TC 18S)
I found this:

But it doesn't really look much like a banding eye, more like a spot.

But it doesn't really look much like a banding eye, more like a spot.
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- Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 50
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
Re: South Indian Ocean: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM IVAN (TC 18S)
ZCZC 258
WTIO30 FMEE 101830 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/11/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN)
2.A POSITION 2008/02/10 AT 1800 UTC :
14.6S / 65.0E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 230 SE: 100 SO: 090 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1200
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/11 06 UTC: 14.5S/65.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2008/02/11 18 UTC: 14.4S/65.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/02/12 06 UTC: 14.3S/65.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2008/02/12 18 UTC: 14.2S/64.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/02/13 06 UTC: 14.2S/64.0E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/02/13 18 UTC: 14.3S/63.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=3.5+
NNNN

WTIO30 FMEE 101830 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/11/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN)
2.A POSITION 2008/02/10 AT 1800 UTC :
14.6S / 65.0E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 230 SE: 100 SO: 090 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1200
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/11 06 UTC: 14.5S/65.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2008/02/11 18 UTC: 14.4S/65.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/02/12 06 UTC: 14.3S/65.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2008/02/12 18 UTC: 14.2S/64.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/02/13 06 UTC: 14.2S/64.0E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/02/13 18 UTC: 14.3S/63.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=3.5+
NNNN

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- Pedro Fernández
- Tropical Storm
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Wunderground:
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
06 GMT 02/07/08 12.9S 60.7E 40 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 02/07/08 14.5S 62.3E 65 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 02/08/08 15.5S 63.3E 65 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 02/08/08 16.1S 63.1E 70 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 02/09/08 15.7S 63.1E 75 Category 1
18 GMT 02/09/08 15.4S 63.8E 70 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 02/10/08 14.9S 64.5E 65 Tropical Storm
It seems there are some jumps in the IVAN's intensity... I also think IVAN has much to say
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
06 GMT 02/07/08 12.9S 60.7E 40 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 02/07/08 14.5S 62.3E 65 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 02/08/08 15.5S 63.3E 65 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 02/08/08 16.1S 63.1E 70 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 02/09/08 15.7S 63.1E 75 Category 1
18 GMT 02/09/08 15.4S 63.8E 70 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 02/10/08 14.9S 64.5E 65 Tropical Storm
It seems there are some jumps in the IVAN's intensity... I also think IVAN has much to say

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