ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HurricaneBill]

S H E A R is everyones friend.

Not unless it's enhancing the outflow. Look what shear did to Charley and Wilma.

[LowndesCoFire]

BTW, noticed that JB forecast a WSW motion earlier today...he still thinks a Rita like track with landfall somewhere between Galveston and NOLA.

He also said Fay was headed for North Carolina.

[jaxfladude]

I stopped to get powerball tickets at 8:30pm and the cashier was writing on a piece of paper... no regular gas. She said all they had left was the V-Power which is like 30 cents higher than the regular gas. I fueled up yesterday!

People are getting prepared. That is great!

Great to hear....hope they get as much in all the gas stations that need extra refills to help people to gas up their cars gas tanks for generators etc. as safely possible.....Cat 2 canes can be bad enough.......

[bigGbear]

I have never (since I've been watching storms on-line in 2004) seen a set of NHC tropical forecast points that were so far from the actual storm. This seems unprecedented to me, am I wrong?

Just appears to me right now where this is a particular case where on-line media such as this is actually able to react to changes quicker than outlets like TWC. They still are much further N. than obvious reality at this point.

____________
I don't think the 11 PM points are on the maps yet.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yes the forecast is for Cat 2 with 110mph wind. +1mph and its a 3....so what is the point?

That's my point..... your common citizen thinks a category 3 is way worse than a 2 so why not forecast a 3? We here on this forum understand that a weak 3 and a strong 2 are nearly the same, but your average citizen doesn't...... they just want to know what category the storm is.

All I was pointing out was that the TREND has been to decrease the winds on about every other advisory....and if that trend continues, we may not even be talking about a cat 2....It just seems like they've been slowly bringing it down. Perhaps the shear they are forecasting is become more apparent, and also couple with that with the fact that they aren't calling for a hurricane now until Friday Night, but we'll see....

[Texas Snowman]

As for the shear, if that materializes, it will certainly help.

But notice that the NHC isn't saying that the sheer is a guaranteed thing: AFTER THAT...GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COULD SLOW THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE.

I hope it happens, but don't bet the farm on it yet. A lot can happen in the next few days.

[mattpetre]

""Some of us have jobs, but consider this almost as important and are willing to lose a little sleep.""

Its Wednesday night. The storm is south of Cuba. Get some sleep.

But honestly as far as storms go it was pretty boring today. I hate to use that word, because flooding was a real problem in Haiti, but flooding was also a huge problem in N.C. yet I did not find ex-Fay compelling to track. This new strange behaviour of Gustav is very interesting to watch. See what you wake up to.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I have never (since I've been watching storms on-line in 2004) seen a set of NHC tropical forecast points that were so far from the actual storm. This seems unprecedented to me, am I wrong?

Just appears to me right now where this is a particular case where on-line media such as this is actually able to react to changes quicker than outlets like TWC. They still are much further N. than obvious reality at this point.

____________
I don't think the 11 PM points are on the maps yet.

they just adjusted them.

[bigGbear]

I have never (since I've been watching storms on-line in 2004) seen a set of NHC tropical forecast points that were so far from the actual storm. This seems unprecedented to me, am I wrong?

Just appears to me right now where this is a particular case where on-line media such as this is actually able to react to changes quicker than outlets like TWC. They still are much further N. than obvious reality at this point.

____________
I don't think the 11 PM points are on the maps yet.

___________

Now they have been

[Just Joshing You]

THIS IS NOT A FORECAST:

I think this will shoot the tip of Cuba and make it through the channel. I also think that by the 11 am advisory tomorrow it will be back to a 55kt storm, with Hurricane by the 11pm advisory.

36 hours will have it up to 85 knot. 48 hr 100 knot.

[Weatherfreak000]

I just dont buy that. This thing if it travels the whole gulf will make it to at least a major hurricane.

Global Models actually are foreseeing that- EURO. GFDL, HWRF. Im confused as to why the NHC would allow people to sigh with relief when they know intensity forecasting is so bad. I think they should have left it Borderline Category 3 just to keep the public aware. I got a bad feeling people are going to undermind the storm because it's only projected to be a Category 2. That would be a huge mistake.

[Texas Snowman]

LowndesCoFire,

Unless my memory fails me, everyone - including NHC - had a lot of egg on their face after Fay.

Meanwhile, back to Gustav.

[Stormcenter]

The trop points are way off for this WSW turn.

Correct...maybe we'll see some adjustments at 4:00AM?? We'll see.

I believe you may.....toward the west. IMHO.

[ConvergenceZone]

Only Category Two? After traveling the entire GOM?

Not buying it.

Things like shear, TCHP, interaction with other high and low pressure systems have a large impact on storm development, not simply if it travels over the GOM.

I know, so many people think that warm water is all it takes to make a cat 3+ cane, but there are soooo many other factors, which is why there have been so many storms traversing the gulf that have stayed weak or have fallen apart. It's just not about the warm temps folks(I know most people know that though)

[Stormcenter]

I just dont buy that. This thing if it travels the whole gulf will make it to at least a major hurricane.

Global Models actually are foreseeing that- EURO. GFDL, HWRF. Im confused as to why the NHC would allow people to sigh with relief when they know intensity forecasting is so bad. I think they should have left it Borderline Category 3 just to keep the public aware. I got a bad feeling people are going to undermind the storm because it's only projected to be a Category 2. That would be a huge mistake.

Because the GFDL has been known to overhype intensity.

[mattpetre]

I have never (since I've been watching storms on-line in 2004) seen a set of NHC tropical forecast points that were so far from the actual storm. This seems unprecedented to me, am I wrong?

Just appears to me right now where this is a particular case where on-line media such as this is actually able to react to changes quicker than outlets like TWC. They still are much further N. than obvious reality at this point.

____________
I don't think the 11 PM points are on the maps yet.

Agreed, but have you seen a shift from one set of points to another that has ever been as drastic as these will be? I will save for future reference. Crap! I went back to save a screenshot and the points were already shifted South quite a bit, but not enough to match the actual center, so at least I got that screen to compare to later.

[LowndesCoFire]

LowndesCoFire,

Unless my memory fails me, everyone - including NHC - had a lot of egg on their face after Fay.

Meanwhile, back to Gustav.

I dont know...just seems like JB always has his own thoughts until he sees that he is being left behind by others. Havent been keeping up with his forecasts too much. So.......back to Gustav.

[AL Chili Pepper]

i really thought ole Gus was on the deathbed there for a while, but he's really starting to crank it back up now. oh well, guess I'll check back in the morning.

[Ivanhater]

Its going to die over eastern cuba!..what a difference a few hours make on this forum

[Just Joshing You]

Gus is really liking the hot waters.