Stormcenter wrote:
S H E A R is everyones friend.
Not unless it's enhancing the outflow. Look what shear did to Charley and Wilma.
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Stormcenter wrote:
S H E A R is everyones friend.
Texas Snowman wrote:BTW, noticed that JB forecast a WSW motion earlier today...he still thinks a Rita like track with landfall somewhere between Galveston and NOLA.
crazycajuncane wrote:I stopped to get powerball tickets at 8:30pm and the cashier was writing on a piece of paper... no regular gas. She said all they had left was the V-Power which is like 30 cents higher than the regular gas. I fueled up yesterday!
People are getting prepared. That is great!
mattpetre wrote:I have never (since I've been watching storms on-line in 2004) seen a set of NHC tropical forecast points that were so far from the actual storm. This seems unprecedented to me, am I wrong?
Just appears to me right now where this is a particular case where on-line media such as this is actually able to react to changes quicker than outlets like TWC. They still are much further N. than obvious reality at this point.
TideJoe wrote:LowndesCoFire wrote:
Yes the forecast is for Cat 2 with 110mph wind. +1mph and its a 3....so what is the point?
That's my point..... your common citizen thinks a category 3 is way worse than a 2 so why not forecast a 3? We here on this forum understand that a weak 3 and a strong 2 are nearly the same, but your average citizen doesn't...... they just want to know what category the storm is.
LowndesCoFire wrote:""Some of us have jobs, but consider this almost as important and are willing to lose a little sleep.""
Its Wednesday night. The storm is south of Cuba. Get some sleep.
bigGbear wrote:mattpetre wrote:I have never (since I've been watching storms on-line in 2004) seen a set of NHC tropical forecast points that were so far from the actual storm. This seems unprecedented to me, am I wrong?
Just appears to me right now where this is a particular case where on-line media such as this is actually able to react to changes quicker than outlets like TWC. They still are much further N. than obvious reality at this point.
____________
I don't think the 11 PM points are on the maps yet.
bigGbear wrote:mattpetre wrote:I have never (since I've been watching storms on-line in 2004) seen a set of NHC tropical forecast points that were so far from the actual storm. This seems unprecedented to me, am I wrong?
Just appears to me right now where this is a particular case where on-line media such as this is actually able to react to changes quicker than outlets like TWC. They still are much further N. than obvious reality at this point.
____________
I don't think the 11 PM points are on the maps yet.
Sean in New Orleans wrote:Sanibel wrote:The trop points are way off for this WSW turn.
Correct...maybe we'll see some adjustments at 4:00AM?? We'll see.
6SpeedTA95 wrote:Weatherfreak000 wrote:Only Category Two? After traveling the entire GOM?
Not buying it.
Things like shear, TCHP, interaction with other high and low pressure systems have a large impact on storm development, not simply if it travels over the GOM.
Weatherfreak000 wrote:I just dont buy that. This thing if it travels the whole gulf will make it to at least a major hurricane.
Global Models actually are foreseeing that- EURO. GFDL, HWRF. Im confused as to why the NHC would allow people to sigh with relief when they know intensity forecasting is so bad. I think they should have left it Borderline Category 3 just to keep the public aware. I got a bad feeling people are going to undermind the storm because it's only projected to be a Category 2. That would be a huge mistake.
bigGbear wrote:mattpetre wrote:I have never (since I've been watching storms on-line in 2004) seen a set of NHC tropical forecast points that were so far from the actual storm. This seems unprecedented to me, am I wrong?
Just appears to me right now where this is a particular case where on-line media such as this is actually able to react to changes quicker than outlets like TWC. They still are much further N. than obvious reality at this point.
____________
I don't think the 11 PM points are on the maps yet.
Texas Snowman wrote:LowndesCoFire,
Unless my memory fails me, everyone - including NHC - had a lot of egg on their face after Fay.
Meanwhile, back to Gustav.
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 58 guests