ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico
When is Dolly supposed to start slowing down? See no sign of that yet.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico
HouTXmetro wrote:Will Dolly's large circulation have an effect on the strength of the Ridge?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
That's the same question I have.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico
Assuming degrees of latitude and longitude are close to equal at this latitude, I just find the anti-tangent of about 0.25 as the number of degrees North of due West.[/Quote]
1 min of latitude = 1 nm
1 min of longitude = cos(lat) = .924 at this latitude.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
This system has been very interesting to watch as it develops. I know that a lot of discussion has gone on about where a low level circulation would/could/may form. We now see clearly from VIS SAT Imagery and RECON that Dolly is getting organized quickly. This has been expected for several days once the system moved into the GOM. Also a lot of discussion concerning the Ridge of High Pressure and it's effects on Dolly in the upcoming time frame. There has been some very good thoughts and model guidance that the ridge would weaken, allowing for a slowing down of the system. NHC/TPC cover this very well in the disco. Sometimes the "devil is in the details" and not what we see at any given moment from SAT views. Remember that weather systems are very fluid in motion and are subject to a lot of variables upstream and down stream. My thoughts concerning Dolly as I stated last evening, are that all need to review your own personal Hurricane Plans and stay informed with "Official Advisories"from local and NHC/TPC authorities. I still believe that Dolly has more "unexpected" surprises for us. This is always true of Tropical Systems. Remember that these systems are "heat engines" and can and most time are very unpredictable, yet we try to do the best we can with the information available to us. Coastal Residents need to begin to plan as it would appear that there will some inpact within 72 hours. Do not be surprised if we continue to see a shift up the Coast with watches and later with warnings later today and tomorrow. Stay Safe and Keep informed.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
This system has been very interesting to watch as it develops. I know that a lot of discussion has gone on about where a low level circulation would/could/may form. We now see clearly from VIS SAT Imagery and RECON that Dolly is getting organized quickly. This has been expected for several days once the system moved into the GOM. Also a lot of discussion concerning the Ridge of High Pressure and it's effects on Dolly in the upcoming time frame. There has been some very good thoughts and model guidance that the ridge would weaken, allowing for a slowing down of the system. NHC/TPC cover this very well in the disco. Sometimes the "devil is in the details" and not what we see at any given moment from SAT views. Remember that weather systems are very fluid in motion and are subject to a lot of variables upstream and down stream. My thoughts concerning Dolly as I stated last evening, are that all need to review your own personal Hurricane Plans and stay informed with "Official Advisories"from local and NHC/TPC authorities. I still believe that Dolly has more "unexpected" surprises for us. This is always true of Tropical Systems. Remember that these systems are "heat engines" and can and most time are very unpredictable, yet we try to do the best we can with the information available to us. Coastal Residents need to begin to plan as it would appear that there will some inpact within 72 hours. Do not be surprised if we continue to see a shift up the Coast with watches and later with warnings later today and tomorrow. Stay Safe and Keep informed.
Last edited by srainhoutx on Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico
srainhoutx wrote:Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
This system has been very interesting to watch as it develops. I know that a lot of discussion has gone on about where a low level circulation would/could/may form. We now see clearly from VIS SAT Imagery and RECON that Dolly is getting organized quickly. This has been expected for several days once the system moved into the GOM. Also a lot of discussion concerning the Ridge of High Pressure and it's effects on Dolly in the upcoming time frame. There has been some very good thoughts and model guidance that the ridge would weaken, allowing for a slowing down of the system. NHC/TPC cover this very well in the disco. Sometimes the "devil is in the details" and not what we see at any given moment from SAT views. Remember that weather systems are very fluid in motion and are subject to a lot of variables upstream and down stream. My thoughts concerning Dolly as I stated last evening, are that all need to review your own personal Hurricane Plans and stay informed with "Official Advisories"from local and NHC/TPC authorities. I still believe that Dolly has more "unexpected" surprises for us. This is always true of Tropical Systems. Remember that these systems are "heat engines" and can and most time are very unpredictable, yet we try to do the best we can with the information availableto us. Coastal Residents need to begin to plan as it would appear that there will some inpact within 72 hours. Do not be surprised if we continue to see a shift up the Coast with watches and later with warnings later today and tomorrow. Stay Safe and Keep informed.
Great Post!!!!
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Re:
jasons wrote:srainhoutx very well stated.
The entire TX coast needs to keep close watch, but if I lived on Corpus right now I'd be in full preperation mode (and not in the office today).
not in the office? abandon work?
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico
HouTXmetro wrote:Take a look at the High clouds and flow off the TX coast and inland on this vis loop. They are moving SW to NE. According to the NHC overlay the High positioned just South of the TX/LA border this morning has shifted to just beneath the Florida Big Bend. That's A big shift East. So my question is the High protecting the upper TX/LA coast weaker and breaking down faster than forecaseted? Or are things going as scheduled?
Will Dolly's large circulation have an effect on the strength of the Ridge?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Dolly is not really strong enough to do much to the ridge right now. But with the ridge moving E/NE and/or weakening faster than anticipated(I do see some signs of this)the possibility becomes more pronounced that Dolly may be landfalling further N than currently predicted.
She is definitely starting the "wrap up" process and is beginning to stack the core imo so I expect intensification to begin in earnest later this afternoon or early this evening(It could be rapid once the core consolidates). Once she intensifies she will begin to erode the S and SW sides of the ridge and could begin a more NW than WNW course.
IMO, EVERYONE ALONG THE ENTIRE TEXAS COAST NEEDS TO WATCH DOLLY CLOSELY and be sure all preps are in order now, not later.
As others have stated Dolly is already a big system and once she consolidates she can be expected to stay large with effects for a long distance away from the center, especially on the dirty(NE) side.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico
If my memory serves me correctly, there hasn't been a shift up the Texas coast on models. Heck, some are even moving more southern.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico
Wx_Warrior wrote:If my memory serves me correctly, there hasn't been a shift up the Texas coast on models. Heck, some are even moving more southern.
what are you talking about? models have shifted northward today, albeit, not much, but they have shifted north.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico
Latest GFS shifted south.
And another thing...There's not a whole lot of time here...She's in the GOM and within a 3-day cone of most. She's not going to start shifting all over the place.
And another thing...There's not a whole lot of time here...She's in the GOM and within a 3-day cone of most. She's not going to start shifting all over the place.
Last edited by Wx_Warrior on Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico
vbhoutex wrote:HouTXmetro wrote:Take a look at the High clouds and flow off the TX coast and inland on this vis loop. They are moving SW to NE. According to the NHC overlay the High positioned just South of the TX/LA border this morning has shifted to just beneath the Florida Big Bend. That's A big shift East. So my question is the High protecting the upper TX/LA coast weaker and breaking down faster than forecaseted? Or are things going as scheduled?
Will Dolly's large circulation have an effect on the strength of the Ridge?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Dolly is not really strong enough to do much to the ridge right now. But with the ridge moving E/NE and/or weakening faster than anticipated(I do see some signs of this)the possibility becomes more pronounced that Dolly may be landfalling further N than currently predicted.
She is definitely starting the "wrap up" process and is beginning to stack the core imo so I expect intensification to begin in earnest later this afternoon or early this evening(It could be rapid once the core consolidates). Once she intensifies she will begin to erode the S and SW sides of the ridge and could begin a more NW than WNW course.
IMO, EVERYONE ALONG THE ENTIRE TEXAS COAST NEEDS TO WATCH DOLLY CLOSELY and be sure all preps are in order now, not later.
As others have stated Dolly is already a big system and once she consolidates she can be expected to stay large with effects for a long distance away from the center, especially on the dirty(NE) side.
Great post vbhoutex, you could not have said it better.
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we are only hours Away from some significant strengthening.... it is show some clear signs of organization with a tight center forming and convection beginning to fire right around that small well defined center. all it is going to take is a initial burst of deep convection ( which looks to be starting) over the center and i imagine by the time this recon mission is done we will see some stronger winds.
want to add that when i say significant i dont mean a strong hurricane or anything that will likely come later..
want to add that when i say significant i dont mean a strong hurricane or anything that will likely come later..
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico
Skyhawk wrote:Assuming degrees of latitude and longitude are close to equal at this latitude, I just find the anti-tangent of about 0.25 as the number of degrees North of due West.[/Quote]
1 min of latitude = 1 nm
1 min of longitude = cos(lat) = .924 at this latitude.
Oh 15 degrees North of due West, or 285º, a tad South of due W-NW.
Thanks.
Unofficially.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
not sure how quickly she is organizing, i think it will take time
1. she is large and "sprawling" will take time to consolidate core
2. her southerly inflow is hampered by Yucatan
not sure how quickly she is organizing, i think it will take time
1. she is large and "sprawling" will take time to consolidate core
2. her southerly inflow is hampered by Yucatan
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico
Wx_Warrior wrote:If my memory serves me correctly, there hasn't been a shift up the Texas coast on models. Heck, some are even moving more southern.
Read the lastest NHC discussion in reference to your post.
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- vbhoutex
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico
Wx_Warrior wrote:Latest GFS shifted south.
And another thing...There's not a whole lot of time here...She's in the GOM and within a 3-day cone of most. She's not going to start shifting all over the place.
And what does that mean? A straight line to the TX/MX border? Do you not think the steering patterns are fluid and changeable as is any Tropical Cyclone? I am not saying she will shift all over the place but I don't believe she is going to stay on a static course to landfall, wherever that may be, either.
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