ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5261 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:04 pm

When is Dolly supposed to start slowing down? See no sign of that yet.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5262 Postby green eyed girl » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:05 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Will Dolly's large circulation have an effect on the strength of the Ridge?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html



That's the same question I have.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5263 Postby Skyhawk » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:08 pm

Assuming degrees of latitude and longitude are close to equal at this latitude, I just find the anti-tangent of about 0.25 as the number of degrees North of due West.[/Quote]


1 min of latitude = 1 nm
1 min of longitude = cos(lat) = .924 at this latitude.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5264 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:11 pm

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


This system has been very interesting to watch as it develops. I know that a lot of discussion has gone on about where a low level circulation would/could/may form. We now see clearly from VIS SAT Imagery and RECON that Dolly is getting organized quickly. This has been expected for several days once the system moved into the GOM. Also a lot of discussion concerning the Ridge of High Pressure and it's effects on Dolly in the upcoming time frame. There has been some very good thoughts and model guidance that the ridge would weaken, allowing for a slowing down of the system. NHC/TPC cover this very well in the disco. Sometimes the "devil is in the details" and not what we see at any given moment from SAT views. Remember that weather systems are very fluid in motion and are subject to a lot of variables upstream and down stream. My thoughts concerning Dolly as I stated last evening, are that all need to review your own personal Hurricane Plans and stay informed with "Official Advisories"from local and NHC/TPC authorities. I still believe that Dolly has more "unexpected" surprises for us. This is always true of Tropical Systems. Remember that these systems are "heat engines" and can and most time are very unpredictable, yet we try to do the best we can with the information available to us. Coastal Residents need to begin to plan as it would appear that there will some inpact within 72 hours. Do not be surprised if we continue to see a shift up the Coast with watches and later with warnings later today and tomorrow. Stay Safe and Keep informed.
Last edited by srainhoutx on Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#5265 Postby jasons2k » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:13 pm

srainhoutx very well stated.

The entire TX coast needs to keep close watch, but if I lived on Corpus right now I'd be in full preperation mode (and not in the office today).
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5266 Postby DJJordan » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:13 pm

srainhoutx wrote:Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


This system has been very interesting to watch as it develops. I know that a lot of discussion has gone on about where a low level circulation would/could/may form. We now see clearly from VIS SAT Imagery and RECON that Dolly is getting organized quickly. This has been expected for several days once the system moved into the GOM. Also a lot of discussion concerning the Ridge of High Pressure and it's effects on Dolly in the upcoming time frame. There has been some very good thoughts and model guidance that the ridge would weaken, allowing for a slowing down of the system. NHC/TPC cover this very well in the disco. Sometimes the "devil is in the details" and not what we see at any given moment from SAT views. Remember that weather systems are very fluid in motion and are subject to a lot of variables upstream and down stream. My thoughts concerning Dolly as I stated last evening, are that all need to review your own personal Hurricane Plans and stay informed with "Official Advisories"from local and NHC/TPC authorities. I still believe that Dolly has more "unexpected" surprises for us. This is always true of Tropical Systems. Remember that these systems are "heat engines" and can and most time are very unpredictable, yet we try to do the best we can with the information availableto us. Coastal Residents need to begin to plan as it would appear that there will some inpact within 72 hours. Do not be surprised if we continue to see a shift up the Coast with watches and later with warnings later today and tomorrow. Stay Safe and Keep informed.



Great Post!!!!
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5267 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:15 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5268 Postby TexWx » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:16 pm

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#5269 Postby oyster_reef » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:16 pm

jasons wrote:srainhoutx very well stated.

The entire TX coast needs to keep close watch, but if I lived on Corpus right now I'd be in full preperation mode (and not in the office today).



not in the office? abandon work?
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5270 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:17 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Take a look at the High clouds and flow off the TX coast and inland on this vis loop. They are moving SW to NE. According to the NHC overlay the High positioned just South of the TX/LA border this morning has shifted to just beneath the Florida Big Bend. That's A big shift East. So my question is the High protecting the upper TX/LA coast weaker and breaking down faster than forecaseted? Or are things going as scheduled?

Will Dolly's large circulation have an effect on the strength of the Ridge?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Dolly is not really strong enough to do much to the ridge right now. But with the ridge moving E/NE and/or weakening faster than anticipated(I do see some signs of this)the possibility becomes more pronounced that Dolly may be landfalling further N than currently predicted.
She is definitely starting the "wrap up" process and is beginning to stack the core imo so I expect intensification to begin in earnest later this afternoon or early this evening(It could be rapid once the core consolidates). Once she intensifies she will begin to erode the S and SW sides of the ridge and could begin a more NW than WNW course.

IMO, EVERYONE ALONG THE ENTIRE TEXAS COAST NEEDS TO WATCH DOLLY CLOSELY and be sure all preps are in order now, not later.

As others have stated Dolly is already a big system and once she consolidates she can be expected to stay large with effects for a long distance away from the center, especially on the dirty(NE) side.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5271 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:19 pm

If my memory serves me correctly, there hasn't been a shift up the Texas coast on models. Heck, some are even moving more southern.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5272 Postby hurrican19 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:20 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:If my memory serves me correctly, there hasn't been a shift up the Texas coast on models. Heck, some are even moving more southern.


what are you talking about? models have shifted northward today, albeit, not much, but they have shifted north.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5273 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:20 pm

Latest GFS shifted south.

And another thing...There's not a whole lot of time here...She's in the GOM and within a 3-day cone of most. She's not going to start shifting all over the place.
Last edited by Wx_Warrior on Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5274 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:21 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:Take a look at the High clouds and flow off the TX coast and inland on this vis loop. They are moving SW to NE. According to the NHC overlay the High positioned just South of the TX/LA border this morning has shifted to just beneath the Florida Big Bend. That's A big shift East. So my question is the High protecting the upper TX/LA coast weaker and breaking down faster than forecaseted? Or are things going as scheduled?

Will Dolly's large circulation have an effect on the strength of the Ridge?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Dolly is not really strong enough to do much to the ridge right now. But with the ridge moving E/NE and/or weakening faster than anticipated(I do see some signs of this)the possibility becomes more pronounced that Dolly may be landfalling further N than currently predicted.
She is definitely starting the "wrap up" process and is beginning to stack the core imo so I expect intensification to begin in earnest later this afternoon or early this evening(It could be rapid once the core consolidates). Once she intensifies she will begin to erode the S and SW sides of the ridge and could begin a more NW than WNW course.

IMO, EVERYONE ALONG THE ENTIRE TEXAS COAST NEEDS TO WATCH DOLLY CLOSELY and be sure all preps are in order now, not later.

As others have stated Dolly is already a big system and once she consolidates she can be expected to stay large with effects for a long distance away from the center, especially on the dirty(NE) side.


Great post vbhoutex, you could not have said it better.
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#5275 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:21 pm

we are only hours Away from some significant strengthening.... it is show some clear signs of organization with a tight center forming and convection beginning to fire right around that small well defined center. all it is going to take is a initial burst of deep convection ( which looks to be starting) over the center and i imagine by the time this recon mission is done we will see some stronger winds.

want to add that when i say significant i dont mean a strong hurricane or anything that will likely come later..
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5276 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:21 pm

Skyhawk wrote:
Assuming degrees of latitude and longitude are close to equal at this latitude, I just find the anti-tangent of about 0.25 as the number of degrees North of due West.[/Quote]


1 min of latitude = 1 nm
1 min of longitude = cos(lat) = .924 at this latitude.



Oh 15 degrees North of due West, or 285º, a tad South of due W-NW.


Thanks.


Unofficially.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5277 Postby cpdaman » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:21 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

not sure how quickly she is organizing, i think it will take time

1. she is large and "sprawling" will take time to consolidate core

2. her southerly inflow is hampered by Yucatan
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5278 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:21 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:If my memory serves me correctly, there hasn't been a shift up the Texas coast on models. Heck, some are even moving more southern.


Read the lastest NHC discussion in reference to your post.
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#5279 Postby Steve » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:23 pm

>>Bad weather looks like it will impact land for several hundred miles North of the landfall point.

Excellent point Ed. Got it crossing 90w at about 22.78 @ 16:15Z on the Goes 12 Zoom and @ about 22.82/90.13 at 16:45. Overall structure is improving. JMO and not official of course.

Steve
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5280 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:23 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:Latest GFS shifted south.

And another thing...There's not a whole lot of time here...She's in the GOM and within a 3-day cone of most. She's not going to start shifting all over the place.


And what does that mean? A straight line to the TX/MX border? Do you not think the steering patterns are fluid and changeable as is any Tropical Cyclone? I am not saying she will shift all over the place but I don't believe she is going to stay on a static course to landfall, wherever that may be, either.
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