ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5621 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:15 pm

Agreed :uarrow: :uarrow:

How many times have we heard...It's about to strengthen and tomorrow it will be a 'cane since Friday?
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#5622 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:15 pm

not everyones ....
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#5623 Postby jasons2k » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:19 pm

Do I have to break out the "Chatty Cathy" pictures?

Let's post, not chat please!
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5624 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:20 pm

You can see that convection on the west side is slowly getting deeper. These images are from 1932z and 2132z

Image
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Re: Re:

#5625 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:22 pm

Aric Dunn wrote: right.. but the innercore problems are not due to the so called dry air .. it is most likely do to its forward motion coupled with the fact that it just reformed this morning..


I disagree...there is some relatively dry air (not just disagreeing with you...but with all the no-dry air types).

At 25N/90W...the RH at about 800 MB was 46% at 20Z.
At 950 MB it was 61%...

That's low.

At 25/95...the RH is 25% at 700MB

There is dry air from the subsidence side of the TUTT being worked in...and the southerly inflow into Dolly...which is every storm's bread and butter...is coming off of the Yucatan. If you streamline it you will see the ENTIRE inflow from the south side is coming in from Mexico...the LENGTH of the Yucatan Peninsula. Dewpoints across that region are in the low 70's to near 70.

Remember what dewpoints in the low 70's did to the structure of Katrina and Rita...not to mention Dennis and Ivan.

Just my two cents.
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#5626 Postby KWT » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:22 pm

Yep RL3AO it does seem like Dolly is starting to get closer to where it needs to be for it to strengthen, as you say convection has deepened recently in both the western and southern quadrants of the storm.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5627 Postby paintplaye » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:22 pm

Im telling you i am either seeing a bobble or a turn to the NW
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#5628 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:23 pm

Dolly's "tail" also has deepening convection. That will probably bring alot of rain and TS force gusts to my area. She's so huge, LA will most likely be affected too.
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Re:

#5629 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:24 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Dolly's "tail" also has deepening convection. That will probably bring alot of rain and TS force gusts to my area. She's so huge, LA will most likely be affected too.


Could the "tail" break off and form a separate system?
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#5630 Postby KWT » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:24 pm

I still see a movement about WNW, it may look NW becuase of the new convective burst that has formed near the center and pushing over the center making it look like its moving more northerly than it is.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5631 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:25 pm

Given the inner core development now taking place and the convective bursts occurring around the center, this will be a hurricane in the overnight hours.

While I still believe that there is a good chance that Dolly will landfall somewhere on the middle coast from Corpus to Port O'Connor (based on the slowing forward speed and weakening ridge indicated by guidance), I think it would be wise to remember that a Cat 1 or lower end Cat 2 at the mouth of the RG could be very troublesome due to the number of mobile homes and the flooding potential in the RGV.

If Dolly does bomb into an upper end Cat 2 or Cat 3 prior to any landfall near the mouth of the Rio Grande, then we could have a disaster in the making, particularly if the flooding materializes.

My unofficial .02 worth.
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Re: Re:

#5632 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:25 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Dolly's "tail" also has deepening convection. That will probably bring alot of rain and TS force gusts to my area. She's so huge, LA will most likely be affected too.


Could the "tail" break off and form a separate system?


LMAO Crazy. :lol:

That was a joke right?
Last edited by RL3AO on Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#5633 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:25 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote: right.. but the innercore problems are not due to the so called dry air .. it is most likely do to its forward motion coupled with the fact that it just reformed this morning..


I disagree...there is some relatively dry air (not just disagreeing with you...but with all the no-dry air types).

At 25N/90W...the RH at about 800 MB was 46% at 20Z.
At 950 MB it was 61%...

That's low.

At 25/95...the RH is 25% at 700MB

There is dry air from the subsidence side of the TUTT being worked in...and the southerly inflow into Dolly...which is every storm's bread and butter...is coming off of the Yucatan. If you streamline it you will see the ENTIRE inflow from the south side is coming in from Mexico...the LENGTH of the Yucatan Peninsula. Dewpoints across that region are in the low 70's to near 70.

Remember what dewpoints in the low 70's did to the structure of Katrina and Rita...not to mention Dennis and Ivan.

Just my two cents.


now that is what im talking about! .. thankyou for that by the way. :) i like being proved wrong, cant argue with that

just one question where did you get the dew point readings from? recon?
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Re: Re:

#5634 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:25 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Dolly's "tail" also has deepening convection. That will probably bring alot of rain and TS force gusts to my area. She's so huge, LA will most likely be affected too.


Could the "tail" break off and form a separate system?


No...to much horizontal shear for that.
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Re: Re:

#5635 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:26 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Dolly's "tail" also has deepening convection. That will probably bring alot of rain and TS force gusts to my area. She's so huge, LA will most likely be affected too.


Could the "tail" break off and form a separate system?

I seriously doubt that. Has that ever happened before at all? TX doesn't need Dolly AND Edouard storming the coast.
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#5636 Postby KWT » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:27 pm

Personally I'd be more worried if it actually tracks a little further south of where is progged, rioght now the N.Eyewall would hit the same sort of region as Bret did and look how little damage relative to the storms strength that did, if it shifted south a little then the N.eyewall would hit a much greater population density.
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Re: Re:

#5637 Postby WmE » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:28 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Dolly's "tail" also has deepening convection. That will probably bring alot of rain and TS force gusts to my area. She's so huge, LA will most likely be affected too.


Could the "tail" break off and form a separate system?

I seriously doubt that. Has that ever happened before at all? TX doesn't need Dolly AND Edouard storming the coast.

Florence and Gordon 2006. Pre Gordon was absorbed by Florence, but managed to break of and develop,
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Re: Re:

#5638 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:29 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote: right.. but the innercore problems are not due to the so called dry air .. it is most likely do to its forward motion coupled with the fact that it just reformed this morning..


I disagree...there is some relatively dry air (not just disagreeing with you...but with all the no-dry air types).

At 25N/90W...the RH at about 800 MB was 46% at 20Z.
At 950 MB it was 61%...

That's low.

At 25/95...the RH is 25% at 700MB

There is dry air from the subsidence side of the TUTT being worked in...and the southerly inflow into Dolly...which is every storm's bread and butter...is coming off of the Yucatan. If you streamline it you will see the ENTIRE inflow from the south side is coming in from Mexico...the LENGTH of the Yucatan Peninsula. Dewpoints across that region are in the low 70's to near 70.

Remember what dewpoints in the low 70's did to the structure of Katrina and Rita...not to mention Dennis and Ivan.

Just my two cents.


now that is what im talking about! .. thankyou for that by the way. :) i like being proved wrong, cant argue with that

just one question where did you get the dew point readings from? recon?


Satellite sounding and upper air. The dewpoints came from the sfc obs in Mexico. Plus...I've been on shift all day. Its no coincidence that the shape is the way it is. The big "tail" of convection is firing where it is because it still has access to moisture from the Caribbean. Look at where the dry slot in Dolly is...and has been all day. It lines up perfectly with the streamlines of the CU streets coming off the Yucatan...and they are traveling the entire length of the Yucatan.
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#5639 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:31 pm

Recon is almost to the center.

Getting better.

Image
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5640 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:31 pm

And I should say...about the drier air...Once Dolly moves a little more westward...say 2-3 degrees...her southern inflow jet should no longer be coming off the continent but should be coming out of the BoC. I believe that is when you will see her begin to get her act together convectively.
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