ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

highest winds so far 46kts with a pressure of 1010mb so still a ways out.

Edit: Now highest is 49kts with a pressure of 1008

[Aric Dunn]

I think you all will like this ...

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll ... te_1h.html

[Duddy]

I think you all will like this ...

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll ... te_1h.html

Like it? I wanna marry it!

[TexasSam]

I think you all will like this ...

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll ... te_1h.html

no landfall, and moving up the coast? I sure hope not!

[paintplaye]

I think you all will like this ...

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll ... te_1h.html

Haha i bet a lot of people are cheering for this track. If it does make this turn we are going to have a HUGE disaster on our hands.

[americanrebel]

I think you all will like this ...

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll ... te_1h.html

That is scary, just what I predicted.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

54kts with a pressure of 1006mb

[Texas Snowman]

That would be bad news for the CC, PA, Rockport area if it jogged inland around or north of Baffin Bay.

[Wx_Warrior]

right up sanibel's alley!

Plus some major, major strengthening would have to happen in a hurry.

[Smurfwicked]

I think being in the GOM its not so much the direction shes going but her current intensity that is not attracting more to this thread.For me there is still far to many possibilities not to not want to watch it with close observation. I think it'd be foolish of anybody to assume since its moving at 17mph that it'll surely be doing that 24 hours from now. I highly doubt the current trend is going to follow until landfall.

This is just my opinion definantly nothing more,

To me it appears to be shifting back into a more NW direction, and giving my understanding of the other factors at play ( which is very little ) it leads me to believe at some point its going to have a much greater northerly direction before landfall, if thats true how soon that takes place should make a difference on landfall on final destination. I'm getting the impression that other posters think its going to maintain its current speed at the same time stay weak. From my understanding of it all its current speed would favor strengthening more so than if it slows as predicted. I haven't really tried to guess at intensity yet but I thought she would of increased higher much sooner as many of you did. But that still doesn't stop me from thinking she'll be intensifying at significant rate in the morning. That being said I still think there many small changes in the factors between now and then that could take place to place the Corpus Christi area in the target zone.

Please discuss

[americanrebel]

Where is the center suppose to be, looks like 23.8N, 93.2 W to me

[Duddy]

I think you all will like this ...

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll ... te_1h.html

That is scary, just what I predicted.

Seriously, you should get like 100,000 amateur forecast points!

[paintplaye]

I think being in the GOM its not so much the direction shes going but her current intensity that is not attracting more to this thread.For me there is still far to many possibilities not to not want to watch it with close observation. I think it'd be foolish of anybody to assume since its moving at 17mph that it'll surely be doing that 24 hours from now. I highly doubt the current trend is going to follow until landfall.

This is just my opinion definantly nothing more,

To me it appears to be shifting back into a more NW direction, and giving my understanding of the other factors at play ( which is very little ) it leads me to believe at some point its going to have a much greater northerly direction before landfall, if thats true how soon that takes place should make a difference on landfall on final destination. I'm getting the impression that other posters think its going to maintain its current speed at the same time stay weak. From my understanding of it all its current speed would favor strengthening more so than if it slows as predicted. I haven't really tried to guess at intensity yet but I thought she would of increased higher much sooner as many of you did. But that still doesn't stop me from thinking she'll be intensifying at significant rate in the morning. That being said I still think there many small changes in the factors between now and then that could take place to place the Corpus Christi area in the target zone.

Please discuss

I agree this COULD happen. If the ridge does weaken enough then we could have this. The thing that is so bad about this, is we won't know until right before landfall if it will happen or not.

[jhamps10]

I think you all will like this ...

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll ... te_1h.html

AND it should be noted that it has a VERY VERY good track record on it's forecast verifing in many situations including snow, and severe weather events. really this would be the first time looking at it in a tropical situation, but I do have to give it a bit of weight based on it's track record on other events.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think you all will like this ...

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll ... te_1h.html

AND it should be noted that it has a VERY VERY good track record on it's forecast verifing in many situations including snow, and severe weather events. really this would be the first time looking at it in a tropical situation, but I do have to give it a bit of weight based on it's track record on other events.

what model is this?

[americanrebel]

I think you all will like this ...

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll ... te_1h.html

That is scary, just what I predicted.

Seriously, you should get like 100,000 amateur forecast points!

Do we really need the sarcasm? I was just making an observation.

[wxmann_91]

I think you all will like this ...

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll ... te_1h.html

AND it should be noted that it has a VERY VERY good track record on it's forecast verifing in many situations including snow, and severe weather events. really this would be the first time looking at it in a tropical situation, but I do have to give it a bit of weight based on it's track record on other events.

eh... it's either really good or really crappy with severe wx events. Not sure how it performs on TC's given that the other situations you present are more midlatitude in nature.

[PTrackerLA]

I think you all will like this ...

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll ... te_1h.html

The simulated radar is beyond cool! I don't know why I've never seen this feature before.

[Texashawk]

I think you all will like this ...

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll ... te_1h.html

Perhaps a stupid question, but what model is that and who maintains it?

[Duddy]

Do we really need the sarcasm? I was just making an observation.

I wasn't being sarcastic! Seriously, you made an awesome call! ^_^

I'm not a sarcastic person. I consider it to be VERY rude.