ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Ad Novoxium]

The Wikipedia article on Fay says it has killed 109 people so far. Deadliest of the season so far and quite high. I didn't see this posted on here yet.

If the damage is just right, I can very easily see Fay biting the dust (i.e. retired), giving Allison a friend in unemployment.

[StJoe]

The Wikipedia article on Fay says it has killed 109 people so far. Deadliest of the season so far and quite high. I didn't see this posted on here yet.

If the damage is just right, I can very easily see Fay biting the dust (i.e. retired), giving Allison a friend in unemployment.

FYI, wikipedia says:

On August 15, Fay made landfall on Hispaniola as an invest and formed while producing heavy rains on the island, prompting a major flash flood threat. The storm caused minor damage in Dominican Republic including falling trees and flooding, this caused most of the flights into and out of the country to be canceled.[1] At least four people were killed after being swept away by flood waters in the Dominican Republic.[23] 23 people were also killed in the Dominican Republic's worst public transit accident, when 2 buses collided about 35 km (22 mi) from La Romana.[2]

In Haiti, Fay's winds and rainfall damaged the agricultural sector, including rice fields and banana crops. One person died after being swept away by flood-waters while trying to cross a swollen river.[24] Another 30 people are missing and presumed to be dead after a bus flipped in Haiti.[25] Another 50 people were killed in Haiti when a bus was flooded as a result of the tropical storm. [26]

In Jamaica, one person was killed as a result of a vehicle being swept away in flood waters.[23]

They just may retire her, [b]maybe...[/b]

[Thunder44]

Fay has run out of time to reach hurricane status. It's now appears to be making landfall SSE of Naples:

[StJoe]

Fay has run out of time to reach hurricane status. It's now appears to be making landfall SSE of Naples:

Watch her cross over Lake O and regenerate into a cat 1...you never know

[SouthFLTropics]

Hey there everyone...I thought I'd pop in and check on the overnighters. I just got up for a sec and peeked outside and noticed that we were getting hammered with heavy, heavy rain. Radar loop is showing heavy convection streaming steadily over top of my area and looks to be getting worse as time goes on. Winds are gusting pretty good but compared to Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma it really isn't anything to get too excited about. On a positive note, Lake Okeechobee is probably on it's way to alleviating it's low levels that has plagued it for the past 2 years.

SFT

[NC George]

vdm .. eye wall open SE

Looking on nws radar from MIA, eyewall looks complete on north side, open on south side. Eyewall was right on the coast at 4:01 am, west of Everglades City.

WPBF is still saying Fay hasn't made landfall yet...

I don't think it's an official until the very center of the eye/center of circulation crosses land.

[Thunder44]

From the 5am NHC Advisory:

...Fay making landfall at Cape Romano...
At 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...all hurricane warnings are discontinued.

[KWT]

Yep Fay has made landfall on Flordia's SW coast now, looks pretty decent and stronger than when I left anyway, not got an eyewall just open on the SE side as recon reports.

[hial2]

From the 5am NHC Advisory:

...Fay making landfall at Cape Romano...
At 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...all hurricane warnings are discontinued.

Cape Romano?? Is this in the U.S.?

[StJoe]

From the 5am NHC Advisory:

...Fay making landfall at Cape Romano...
At 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...all hurricane warnings are discontinued.

Cape Romano?? Is this in the U.S.?

[color=#4000FF]Cape Romano is a cape at the southern end of Caxambas Island, just south of Marco Island and northwest of the Ten Thousand Islands in Collier County, Florida.

Calusa Indians founded the settlement and called it Manataca. Juan Ponce de León briefly stopped at Manataca on his first trip from Puerto Rico to Florida, but the Indians tried to fight him off.

Cape Romano was also the spot where Hurricane Wilma made its first U.S. landfall in October 2005.

[Aric Dunn]

the 00z euro does not do what the official forecast says.. lol


THE
GUIDANCE IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS A SLIGHTLY SHARPER SLOWDOWN AND TURN TO
THE WEST...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.

[KWT]

Also I wonder whether land friction has enhanced the eye signal?

[Sanibel]

Woke up by alarm clock to see it landfall. I see GFDL wins the model contest!


Winds here are wimpy. Prolonged gusts hardly worth taking the stuff off the porch for. Rain light.

[Cyclenall]

Something isn't right about the 5:00 am package here. The tone and way it was put together seems "under-hyped" if I could put it that way. There were several things that seemed out of place like the absence of the GFDL doing it's crazy thing in the discussion and the formation of an eyewall before landfall.

[KWT]

Yeah Cyclenall surprised they didnt mention the GFDL and its hitting GA really hard.

Still this must be a forecasters nightmare, there are so many variables and they will make a huge difference in terms of eventual outcomes.

If the models are right this looks like it'll have a decent set-up to strengthen if it can get back over water.

[StJoe]

Something isn't right about the 5:00 am package here. The tone and way it was put together seems "under-hyped" if I could put it that way. There were several things that seemed out of place like the absence of the GFDL doing it's crazy thing in the discussion and the formation of an eyewall before landfall.

Another Wilma like scenario in my belief. Fay should not be downplayed at all. If she shifts a little more east of her GFDL course, guess what? She'll suck up all the rain that she's been dropping for the past 7 hours. Totally Wilma all over again, just no serious winds...

Nice pic for memories:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/48/Wilma05FLLandfallRadar.png

[Sanibel]

What were the highest wind readings? Looks like 989 is hurricane pressure.

[Scorpion]

64 kt FL winds.. 66 kt SFMR

[KWT]

Yeah I think that would at least support 55kts at landfall to be honest.

Still think there are good comprasions to Irene, has made landflal a touch further north but its still interesting to see what model is right beyond 36hrs!

[Sanibel]

Good. My oranges will probably stay on the tree. No power failure! Back to sleep for me.

On to 94L.