ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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Ad Novoxium
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Re:

#9601 Postby Ad Novoxium » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:32 am

Cyclenall wrote:The Wikipedia article on Fay says it has killed 109 people so far. Deadliest of the season so far and quite high. I didn't see this posted on here yet.


If the damage is just right, I can very easily see Fay biting the dust (i.e. retired), giving Allison a friend in unemployment.
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StJoe
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Re: Re:

#9602 Postby StJoe » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:36 am

Ad Novoxium wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:The Wikipedia article on Fay says it has killed 109 people so far. Deadliest of the season so far and quite high. I didn't see this posted on here yet.


If the damage is just right, I can very easily see Fay biting the dust (i.e. retired), giving Allison a friend in unemployment.


FYI, wikipedia says:

On August 15, Fay made landfall on Hispaniola as an invest and formed while producing heavy rains on the island, prompting a major flash flood threat. The storm caused minor damage in Dominican Republic including falling trees and flooding, this caused most of the flights into and out of the country to be canceled.[1] At least four people were killed after being swept away by flood waters in the Dominican Republic.[23] 23 people were also killed in the Dominican Republic's worst public transit accident, when 2 buses collided about 35 km (22 mi) from La Romana.[2]

In Haiti, Fay's winds and rainfall damaged the agricultural sector, including rice fields and banana crops. One person died after being swept away by flood-waters while trying to cross a swollen river.[24] Another 30 people are missing and presumed to be dead after a bus flipped in Haiti.[25] Another 50 people were killed in Haiti when a bus was flooded as a result of the tropical storm. [26]

In Jamaica, one person was killed as a result of a vehicle being swept away in flood waters.[23]


They just may retire her, [b]maybe...[/b]
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9603 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:40 am

Fay has run out of time to reach hurricane status. It's now appears to be making landfall SSE of Naples:

Image
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9604 Postby StJoe » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:42 am

Thunder44 wrote:Fay has run out of time to reach hurricane status. It's now appears to be making landfall SSE of Naples:

Image


Watch her cross over Lake O and regenerate into a cat 1...you never know :eek:
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9605 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:48 am

Hey there everyone...I thought I'd pop in and check on the overnighters. I just got up for a sec and peeked outside and noticed that we were getting hammered with heavy, heavy rain. Radar loop is showing heavy convection streaming steadily over top of my area and looks to be getting worse as time goes on. Winds are gusting pretty good but compared to Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma it really isn't anything to get too excited about. On a positive note, Lake Okeechobee is probably on it's way to alleviating it's low levels that has plagued it for the past 2 years.

SFT
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Re: Re:

#9606 Postby NC George » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:53 am

StJoe wrote:
NC George wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:vdm .. eye wall open SE


Looking on nws radar from MIA, eyewall looks complete on north side, open on south side. Eyewall was right on the coast at 4:01 am, west of Everglades City.


WPBF is still saying Fay hasn't made landfall yet... :double:



I don't think it's an official until the very center of the eye/center of circulation crosses land.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9607 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:53 am

From the 5am NHC Advisory:

...Fay making landfall at Cape Romano...
At 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...all hurricane warnings are discontinued.
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#9608 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:04 am

Yep Fay has made landfall on Flordia's SW coast now, looks pretty decent and stronger than when I left anyway, not got an eyewall just open on the SE side as recon reports.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9609 Postby hial2 » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:06 am

Thunder44 wrote:From the 5am NHC Advisory:

...Fay making landfall at Cape Romano...
At 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...all hurricane warnings are discontinued.


Cape Romano?? Is this in the U.S.?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9610 Postby StJoe » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:10 am

hial2 wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:From the 5am NHC Advisory:

...Fay making landfall at Cape Romano...
At 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...all hurricane warnings are discontinued.


Cape Romano?? Is this in the U.S.?


[color=#4000FF]Cape Romano is a cape at the southern end of Caxambas Island, just south of Marco Island and northwest of the Ten Thousand Islands in Collier County, Florida.

Calusa Indians founded the settlement and called it Manataca. Juan Ponce de León briefly stopped at Manataca on his first trip from Puerto Rico to Florida, but the Indians tried to fight him off.

Cape Romano was also the spot where Hurricane Wilma made its first U.S. landfall in October 2005.
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#9611 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:14 am

the 00z euro does not do what the official forecast says.. lol


THE
GUIDANCE IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS A SLIGHTLY SHARPER SLOWDOWN AND TURN TO
THE WEST...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.
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#9612 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:14 am

Also I wonder whether land friction has enhanced the eye signal?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9613 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:19 am

Woke up by alarm clock to see it landfall. I see GFDL wins the model contest!


Winds here are wimpy. Prolonged gusts hardly worth taking the stuff off the porch for. Rain light.
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#9614 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:20 am

Something isn't right about the 5:00 am package here. The tone and way it was put together seems "under-hyped" if I could put it that way. There were several things that seemed out of place like the absence of the GFDL doing it's crazy thing in the discussion and the formation of an eyewall before landfall.
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#9615 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:22 am

Yeah Cyclenall surprised they didnt mention the GFDL and its hitting GA really hard.

Still this must be a forecasters nightmare, there are so many variables and they will make a huge difference in terms of eventual outcomes.

If the models are right this looks like it'll have a decent set-up to strengthen if it can get back over water.
Last edited by KWT on Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#9616 Postby StJoe » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:23 am

Cyclenall wrote:Something isn't right about the 5:00 am package here. The tone and way it was put together seems "under-hyped" if I could put it that way. There were several things that seemed out of place like the absence of the GFDL doing it's crazy thing in the discussion and the formation of an eyewall before landfall.


Another Wilma like scenario in my belief. Fay should not be downplayed at all. If she shifts a little more east of her GFDL course, guess what? She'll suck up all the rain that she's been dropping for the past 7 hours. Totally Wilma all over again, just no serious winds...

Nice pic for memories:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/48/Wilma05FLLandfallRadar.png
Last edited by StJoe on Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9617 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:27 am

What were the highest wind readings? Looks like 989 is hurricane pressure.
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Scorpion

#9618 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:28 am

64 kt FL winds.. 66 kt SFMR
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#9619 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:31 am

Yeah I think that would at least support 55kts at landfall to be honest.

Still think there are good comprasions to Irene, has made landflal a touch further north but its still interesting to see what model is right beyond 36hrs!
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay South of Naples

#9620 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:31 am

Good. My oranges will probably stay on the tree. No power failure! Back to sleep for me.

On to 94L.
Last edited by Sanibel on Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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